Forecasting with Machine Learning

For years, people have been forecasting weather patterns, economic and political events, sports outcomes, and more. In this paper we discussed the ways of using machine learning in forecasting, machine learning is a branch of computer science where algorithms learn from data. The fundamental problem for machine learning and time series is the same: to predict new outcomes based on previously known results. Using the suitable technique of machine learning depend on how much data you have, how noisy the data is, and what kind of new features can be derived from the data. But these techniques can improve accuracy and don’t have to be difficult to implement

A review and comparison of strategies for multi-step ahead time series forecasting based on the NN5 forecasting competition

Multi-step ahead forecasting is still an open challenge in time series forecasting. Several approaches that deal with this complex problem have been proposed in the literature but an extensive comparison on a large number of tasks is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing existing strategies for multi-step ahead forecasting and comparing them in theoretical and practical terms. To attain such an objective, we performed a large scale comparison of these different strategies using a large experimental benchmark (namely the 111 series from the NN5 forecasting competition). In addition, we considered the effects of deseasonalization, input variable selection, and forecast combination on these strategies and on multi-step ahead forecasting at large. The following three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results: Multiple-Output strategies are the best performing approaches, deseasonalization leads to uniformly improved forecast accuracy, and input selection is more effective when performed in conjunction with deseasonalization

Understanding Complexity in Multiobjective Optimization

This report documents the program and outcomes of the Dagstuhl Seminar 15031 Understanding Complexity in Multiobjective Optimization. This seminar carried on the series of four previous Dagstuhl Seminars (04461, 06501, 09041 and 12041) that were focused on Multiobjective Optimization, and strengthening the links between the Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (EMO) and Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) communities. The purpose of the seminar was to bring together researchers from the two communities to take part in a wide-ranging discussion about the different sources and impacts of complexity in multiobjective optimization. The outcome was a clarified viewpoint of complexity in the various facets of multiobjective optimization, leading to several research initiatives with innovative approaches for coping with complexity