Evolutionary approaches for portfolio optimization

Portfolio optimization involves the optimal assignment of limited capital to different available financial assets to achieve a reasonable trade-off between profit and risk objectives. Markowitz’s mean variance (MV) model is widely regarded as the foundation of modern portfolio theory and provides a quantitative framework for portfolio optimization problems. In real market, investors commonly face real-world trading restrictions and it requires that the constructed portfolios have to meet trading constraints. When additional constraints are added to the basic MV model, the problem thus becomes more complex and the exact optimization approaches run into difficulties to deliver solutions within reasonable time for large problem size. By introducing the cardinality constraint alone already transformed the classic quadratic optimization model into a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem which is an NP-hard problem. Evolutionary algorithms, a class of metaheuristics, are one of the known alternatives for optimization problems that are too complex to be solved using deterministic techniques. This thesis focuses on single-period portfolio optimization problems with practical trading constraints and two different risk measures. Four hybrid evolutionary algorithms are presented to efficiently solve these problems with gradually more complex real world constraints. In the first part of the thesis, the mean variance portfolio model is investigated by taking into account real-world constraints. A hybrid evolutionary algorithm (PBILDE) for portfolio optimization with cardinality and quantity constraints is presented. The proposed PBILDE is able to achieve a strong synergetic effect through hybridization of PBIL and DE. A partially guided mutation and an elitist update strategy are proposed in order to promote the efficient convergence of PBILDE. Its effectiveness is evaluated and compared with other existing algorithms over a number of datasets. A multi-objective scatter search with archive (MOSSwA) algorithm for portfolio optimization with cardinality, quantity and pre-assignment constraints is then presented. New subset generations and solution combination methods are proposed to generate efficient and diverse portfolios. A learning-guided multi-objective evolutionary (MODEwAwL) algorithm for the portfolio optimization problems with cardinality, quantity, pre-assignment and round lot constraints is presented. A learning mechanism is introduced in order to extract important features from the set of elite solutions. Problem-specific selection heuristics are introduced in order to identify high-quality solutions with a reduced computational cost. An efficient and effective candidate generation scheme utilizing a learning mechanism, problem specific heuristics and effective direction-based search methods is proposed to guide the search towards the promising regions of the search space. In the second part of the thesis, an alternative risk measure, VaR, is considered. A non-parametric mean-VaR model with six practical trading constraints is investigated. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with guided learning (MODE-GL) is presented for the mean-VaR model. Two different variants of DE mutation schemes in the solution generation scheme are proposed in order to promote the exploration of the search towards the least crowded region of the solution space. Experimental results using historical daily financial market data from S &P 100 and S & P 500 indices are presented. When the cardinality constraints are considered, incorporating a learning mechanism significantly promotes the efficient convergence of the search

Evolutionary approaches for portfolio optimization

Portfolio optimization involves the optimal assignment of limited capital to different available financial assets to achieve a reasonable trade-off between profit and risk objectives. Markowitz’s mean variance (MV) model is widely regarded as the foundation of modern portfolio theory and provides a quantitative framework for portfolio optimization problems. In real market, investors commonly face real-world trading restrictions and it requires that the constructed portfolios have to meet trading constraints. When additional constraints are added to the basic MV model, the problem thus becomes more complex and the exact optimization approaches run into difficulties to deliver solutions within reasonable time for large problem size. By introducing the cardinality constraint alone already transformed the classic quadratic optimization model into a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem which is an NP-hard problem. Evolutionary algorithms, a class of metaheuristics, are one of the known alternatives for optimization problems that are too complex to be solved using deterministic techniques. This thesis focuses on single-period portfolio optimization problems with practical trading constraints and two different risk measures. Four hybrid evolutionary algorithms are presented to efficiently solve these problems with gradually more complex real world constraints. In the first part of the thesis, the mean variance portfolio model is investigated by taking into account real-world constraints. A hybrid evolutionary algorithm (PBILDE) for portfolio optimization with cardinality and quantity constraints is presented. The proposed PBILDE is able to achieve a strong synergetic effect through hybridization of PBIL and DE. A partially guided mutation and an elitist update strategy are proposed in order to promote the efficient convergence of PBILDE. Its effectiveness is evaluated and compared with other existing algorithms over a number of datasets. A multi-objective scatter search with archive (MOSSwA) algorithm for portfolio optimization with cardinality, quantity and pre-assignment constraints is then presented. New subset generations and solution combination methods are proposed to generate efficient and diverse portfolios. A learning-guided multi-objective evolutionary (MODEwAwL) algorithm for the portfolio optimization problems with cardinality, quantity, pre-assignment and round lot constraints is presented. A learning mechanism is introduced in order to extract important features from the set of elite solutions. Problem-specific selection heuristics are introduced in order to identify high-quality solutions with a reduced computational cost. An efficient and effective candidate generation scheme utilizing a learning mechanism, problem specific heuristics and effective direction-based search methods is proposed to guide the search towards the promising regions of the search space. In the second part of the thesis, an alternative risk measure, VaR, is considered. A non-parametric mean-VaR model with six practical trading constraints is investigated. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with guided learning (MODE-GL) is presented for the mean-VaR model. Two different variants of DE mutation schemes in the solution generation scheme are proposed in order to promote the exploration of the search towards the least crowded region of the solution space. Experimental results using historical daily financial market data from S &P 100 and S & P 500 indices are presented. When the cardinality constraints are considered, incorporating a learning mechanism significantly promotes the efficient convergence of the search

An Evolutionary Approach to Multistage Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio optimization is an important problem in quantitative finance due to its application in asset management and corporate financial decision making. This involves quantitatively selecting the optimal portfolio for an investor given their asset return distribution assumptions, investment objectives and constraints. Analytical portfolio optimization methods suffer from limitations in terms of the problem specification and modelling assumptions that can be used. Therefore, a heuristic approach is taken where Monte Carlo simulations generate the investment scenarios and' a problem specific evolutionary algorithm is used to find the optimal portfolio asset allocations. Asset allocation is known to be the most important determinant of a portfolio's investment performance and also affects its risk/return characteristics. The inclusion of equity options in an equity portfolio should enable an investor to improve their efficient frontier due to options having a nonlinear payoff. Therefore, a research area of significant importance to equity investors, in which little research has been carried out, is the optimal asset allocation in equity options for an equity investor. A purpose of my thesis is to carry out an original analysis of the impact of allowing the purchase of put options and/or sale of call options for an equity investor. An investigation is also carried out into the effect ofchanging the investor's risk measure on the optimal asset allocation. A dynamic investment strategy obtained through multistage portfolio optimization has the potential to result in a superior investment strategy to that obtained from a single period portfolio optimization. Therefore, a novel analysis of the degree of the benefits of a dynamic investment strategy for an equity portfolio is performed. In particular, the ability of a dynamic investment strategy to mimic the effects ofthe inclusion ofequity options in an equity portfolio is investigated. The portfolio optimization problem is solved using evolutionary algorithms, due to their ability incorporate methods from a wide range of heuristic algorithms. Initially, it is shown how the problem specific parts ofmy evolutionary algorithm have been designed to solve my original portfolio optimization problem. Due to developments in evolutionary algorithms and the variety of design structures possible, a purpose of my thesis is to investigate the suitability of alternative algorithm design structures. A comparison is made of the performance of two existing algorithms, firstly the single objective stepping stone island model, where each island represents a different risk aversion parameter, and secondly the multi-objective Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm2. Innovative hybrids of these algorithms which also incorporate features from multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, multiple population models and local search heuristics are then proposed. . A novel way is developed for solving the portfolio optimization by dividing my problem solution into two parts and then applying a multi-objective cooperative coevolution evolutionary algorithm. The first solution part consists of the asset allocation weights within the equity portfolio while the second solution part consists 'ofthe asset allocation weights within the equity options and the asset allocation weights between the different asset classes. An original portfolio optimization multiobjective evolutionary algorithm that uses an island model to represent different risk measures is also proposed.Imperial Users onl

Scaling up a Project Portfolio Selection Technique by using Multiobjective Genetic Optimization

This paper proposes a multiobjective heuristic search approach to support a project portfolio selection technique on scenarios with a large number of candidate projects. The original formulation for the technique requires analyzing all combinations of the candidate projects, which turns to be unfeasible when more than a few alternatives are available. We have used a multiobjective genetic algorithm to partially explore the search space of project combinations and select the most effective ones. We present an experimental study based on four real-world project selection problems that compares the results found by the genetic algorithm to those yielded by a non-systematic search procedure (random search). A second experimental study evaluates the best parameter settings to perform the heuristic search. Experimental results show evidence that the project selection technique can be used in large-scale scenarios and that the genetic algorithm presents better results than simpler search strategies

Screening robust water infrastructure investments and their trade-offs under global change: A London example

We propose an approach for screening future infrastructure and demand management investments for large water supply systems subject to uncertain future conditions. The approach is demonstrated using the London water supply system. Promising portfolios of interventions (e.g., new supplies, water conservation schemes, etc.) that meet London’s estimated water supply demands in 2035 are shown to face significant trade-offs between financial, engineering and environmental measures of performance. Robust portfolios are identified by contrasting the multi-objective results attained for (1) historically observed baseline conditions versus (2) future global change scenarios. An ensemble of global change scenarios is computed using climate change impacted hydrological flows, plausible water demands, environmentally motivated abstraction reductions, and future energy prices. The proposed multi-scenario trade-off analysis screens for robust investments that provide benefits over a wide range of futures, including those with little change. Our results suggest that 60 percent of intervention portfolios identified as Pareto optimal under historical conditions would fail under future scenarios considered relevant by stakeholders. Those that are able to maintain good performance under historical conditions can no longer be considered to perform optimally under future scenarios. The individual investment options differ significantly in their ability to cope with varying conditions. Visualizing the individual infrastructure and demand management interventions implemented in the Pareto optimal portfolios in multi-dimensional space aids the exploration of how the interventions affect the robustness and performance of the system

A comparative study of multi objective optimization algorithms for a cellular automata model

Cellular Automata (CA) models can represent dynamic systems which are discrete in space and time that reflects the effect of intrinsic parameters where individual events are considered to occur from randomness. A CA model of two agents' chemical kinetics has been optimized earlier using NSGA-II based on Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). But the stochastic nature of the CA model along with its high sensitivity on the model parameters requires extensive investigation using different optimization algorithms. For this purpose, in the current study, four more recently developed and popular optimization algorithms based on EA, called NSGA-IIr, NSGA-IIa, AbYSS and MOEA/D, have been considered for investigation based on various performance measuring parameters. The study also compares the performances of the algorithms for different computational efforts with an objective to minimize the required number of objective function evaluations. Simulation results and Friedman rank statistical test show NSGA-IIa and NSGA-IIr as the best choices to optimize the CA stochastic model across any number of objective function evaluations. Though the choice of optimization algorithm does not change with function evaluations, higher function evaluations improve the pseudo-pareto front for the CA optimization problem. Such results will facilitate the use of stochastic CA models to represent complex (bio)-chemical networks

Evolutionary improvement of programs

Most applications of genetic programming (GP) involve the creation of an entirely new function, program or expression to solve a specific problem. In this paper, we propose a new approach that applies GP to improve existing software by optimizing its non-functional properties such as execution time, memory usage, or power consumption. In general, satisfying non-functional requirements is a difficult task and often achieved in part by optimizing compilers. However, modern compilers are in general not always able to produce semantically equivalent alternatives that optimize non-functional properties, even if such alternatives are known to exist: this is usually due to the limited local nature of such optimizations. In this paper, we discuss how best to combine and extend the existing evolutionary methods of GP, multiobjective optimization, and coevolution in order to improve existing software. Given as input the implementation of a function, we attempt to evolve a semantically equivalent version, in this case optimized to reduce execution time subject to a given probability distribution of inputs. We demonstrate that our framework is able to produce non-obvious optimizations that compilers are not yet able to generate on eight example functions. We employ a coevolved population of test cases to encourage the preservation of the function's semantics. We exploit the original program both through seeding of the population in order to focus the search, and as an oracle for testing purposes. As well as discussing the issues that arise when attempting to improve software, we employ rigorous experimental method to provide interesting and practical insights to suggest how to address these issues

Ant colony optimization based simulation of 3d automatic hose/pipe routing

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis focuses on applying one of the rapidly growing non-deterministic optimization algorithms, the ant colony algorithm, for simulating automatic hose/pipe routing with several conflicting objectives. Within the thesis, methods have been developed and applied to single objective hose routing, multi-objective hose routing and multi-hose routing. The use of simulation and optimization in engineering design has been widely applied in all fields of engineering as the computational capabilities of computers has increased and improved. As a result of this, the application of non-deterministic optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing algorithms, ant colony algorithms, etc. has increased dramatically resulting in vast improvements in the design process. Initially, two versions of ant colony algorithms have been developed based on, respectively, a random network and a grid network for a single objective (minimizing the length of the hoses) and avoiding obstacles in the CAD model. While applying ant colony algorithms for the simulation of hose routing, two modifications have been proposed for reducing the size of the search space and avoiding the stagnation problem. Hose routing problems often consist of several conflicting or trade-off objectives. In classical approaches, in many cases, multiple objectives are aggregated into one single objective function and optimization is then treated as a single-objective optimization problem. In this thesis two versions of ant colony algorithms are presented for multihose routing with two conflicting objectives: minimizing the total length of the hoses and maximizing the total shared length (bundle length). In this case the two objectives are aggregated into a single objective. The current state-of-the-art approach for handling multi-objective design problems is to employ the concept of Pareto optimality. Within this thesis a new Pareto-based general purpose ant colony algorithm (PSACO) is proposed and applied to a multi-objective hose routing problem that consists of the following objectives: total length of the hoses between the start and the end locations, number of bends, and angles of bends. The proposed method is capable of handling any number of objectives and uses a single pheromone matrix for all the objectives. The domination concept is used for updating the pheromone matrix. Among the currently available multi-objective ant colony optimization (MOACO) algorithms, P-ACO generates very good solutions in the central part of the Pareto front and hence the proposed algorithm is compared with P-ACO. A new term is added to the random proportional rule of both of the algorithms (PSACO and P-ACO) to attract ants towards edges that make angles close to the pre-specified angles of bends. A refinement algorithm is also suggested for searching an acceptable solution after the completion of searching the entire search space. For all of the simulations, the STL format (tessellated format) for the obstacles is used in the algorithm instead of the original shapes of the obstacles. This STL format is passed to the C++ library RAPID for collision detection. As a result of using this format, the algorithms can handle freeform obstacles and the algorithms are not restricted to a particular software package

Multi objective evolutionary optimization in uncertain environments

Master'sMASTER OF ENGINEERIN

Population-based algorithms for improved history matching and uncertainty quantification of Petroleum reservoirs

In modern field management practices, there are two important steps that shed light on a multimillion dollar investment. The first step is history matching where the simulation model is calibrated to reproduce the historical observations from the field. In this inverse problem, different geological and petrophysical properties may provide equally good history matches. Such diverse models are likely to show different production behaviors in future. This ties the history matching with the second step, uncertainty quantification of predictions. Multiple history matched models are essential for a realistic uncertainty estimate of the future field behavior. These two steps facilitate decision making and have a direct impact on technical and financial performance of oil and gas companies. Population-based optimization algorithms have been recently enjoyed growing popularity for solving engineering problems. Population-based systems work with a group of individuals that cooperate and communicate to accomplish a task that is normally beyond the capabilities of each individual. These individuals are deployed with the aim to solve the problem with maximum efficiency. This thesis introduces the application of two novel population-based algorithms for history matching and uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models. Ant colony optimization and differential evolution algorithms are used to search the space of parameters to find multiple history matched models and, using a Bayesian framework, the posterior probability of the models are evaluated for prediction of reservoir performance. It is demonstrated that by bringing latest developments in computer science such as ant colony, differential evolution and multiobjective optimization, we can improve the history matching and uncertainty quantification frameworks. This thesis provides insights into performance of these algorithms in history matching and prediction and develops an understanding of their tuning parameters. The research also brings a comparative study of these methods with a benchmark technique called Neighbourhood Algorithms. This comparison reveals the superiority of the proposed methodologies in various areas such as computational efficiency and match quality