Multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling of daily activity satisfaction using GPS-integrated activity diary data

In this research, we match web-based activity diary data with daily mobility information recorded by GPS trackers for a sample of 709 residents in a 7-day survey in Beijing in 2012 to investigate activity satisfaction. Given the complications arising from the irregular time intervals of GPS-integrated diary data and the associated complex dependency structure, a direct application of standard (spatial) panel data econometric approaches is inappropriate. This study develops a multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling approach to analyse such data, which conceptualises time as continuous and examines sequential correlations via a time or space-time weights matrix. Moreover, we manage to simultaneously model individual heterogeneity through the inclusion of individual random effects, which can be treated flexibly either as independent or dependent. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed for model implementation. Positive sequential correlations and individual heterogeneity effects are both found to be statistically significant. Geographical contextual characteristics of sites where activities take place are significantly associated with daily activity satisfaction, controlling for a range of situational characteristics and individual socio-demographic attributes. Apart from the conceivable urban planning and development implications of our study, we demonstrate a novel statistical methodology for analysing semantic GPS trajectory data in general

The interplay between land use, travel behaviour and attitudes: a quest for causality.

Governments increasingly embrace land-use policies to promote sustainable travel behaviour. However, the causality of this relationship, and in particular the role of travel-related attitudes, is not clear. This thesis takes a longitudinal approach and explores the directions of causality. It shows that the built environment influences travel behaviour and that travel-related attitudes play an important intervening role. Implications for land-use policies and alignment with accompanying measures are discussed.TRAIL Thesis Series no. T2021/18, the Netherlands Research School TRAILTransport and Plannin

Developing a locally adaptive spatial multilevel logistic model to analyze ecological effects on health using individual census records

Geographical variable distributions often exhibit both macroscale geographic smoothness and microscale discontinuities or local step changes. Nonetheless, accounting for both effects in a unified statistical model is challenging, especially when the data under study involve a multiscale structure and non-Gaussian response variables. This study develops a locally adaptive spatial multilevel logistic model to examine binomial response variables that integrates an innovative locally adaptive spatial econometric model with a multilevel model. It takes into account global spatial autocorrelation, local step changes, and vertical dependence effects arising from the multiscale data structure. Another appealing feature is that the spatial correlation structure, implied by a spatial weights matrix, is learned along with other model parameters via an iterative estimation algorithm, rather than being presumed to be invariant. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are derived to implement this new spatial multilevel logistic model. A data augmentation approach, drawing on recently devised Pólya-gamma distributions, is adopted to reduce computational burdens of calculating binomial likelihoods with a logit link function. The validity of the developed model is evaluated by a set of simulation experiments, before being applied to analyze self-rated health for the elderly in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, China. Model estimation results highlight a nuanced geography of self-rated health and identify a range of individual- and area-level correlates of health for the elderly

Modelling individual accessibility using Bayesian networks: A capabilities approach

The ability of an individual to reach and engage with basic services such as healthcare, education and activities such as employment is a fundamental aspect of their wellbeing. Within transport studies, accessibility is considered to be a valuable concept that can be used to generate insights on issues related to social exclusion due to limited access to transport options. Recently, researchers have attempted to link accessibility with popular theories of social justice such as Amartya Sen's Capabilities Approach (CA). Such studies have set the theoretical foundations on the way accessibility can be expressed through the CA, however, attempts to operationalise this approach remain fragmented and predominantly qualitative in nature. The data landscape however, has changed over the last decade providing an unprecedented quantity of transport related data at an individual level. Mobility data from dfferent sources have the potential to contribute to the understanding of individual accessibility and its relation to phenomena such as social exclusion. At the same time, the unlabelled nature of such data present a considerable challenge, as a non-trivial step of inference is required if one is to deduce the transportation modes used and activities reached. This thesis develops a novel framework for accessibility modelling using the CA as theoretical foundation. Within the scope of this thesis, this is used to assess the levels of equality experienced by individuals belonging to different population groups and its link to transport related social exclusion. In the proposed approach, activities reached and transportation modes used are considered manifestations of individual hidden capabilities. A modelling framework using dynamic Bayesian networks is developed to quantify and assess the relationships and dynamics of the different components in fluencing the capabilities sets. The developed approach can also provide inferential capabilities for activity type and transportation mode detection, making it suitable for use with unlabelled mobility data such as Automatic Fare Collection Systems (AFC), mobile phone and social media. The usefulness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through three case studies. In the first case study, mobile phone data were used to explore the interaction of individuals with different public transportation modes. It was found that assumptions about individual mobility preferences derived from travel surveys may not always hold, providing evidence for the significance of personal characteristics to the choices of transportation modes. In the second case, the proposed framework is used for activity type inference, testing the limits of accuracy that can be achieved from unlabelled social media data. A combination of the previous case studies, the third case further defines a generative model which is used to develop the proposed capabilities approach to accessibility model. Using data from London's Automatic Fare Collection Systems (AFC) system, the elements of the capabilities set are explicitly de ned and linked with an individual's personal characteristics, external variables and functionings. The results are used to explore the link between social exclusion and transport disadvantage, revealing distinct patterns that can be attributed to different accessibility levels

Preference mining techniques for customer behavior analysis

The thesis has studied a number of critical problems in data mining for customer behavior analysis and has proposed novel techniques for better modeling of the customers’ decision making process, more efficient analysis of their travel behavior, and more effective identification of their emerging preference

Digital Traces of the Mind::Using Smartphones to Capture Signals of Well-Being in Individuals

General context and questions Adolescents and young adults typically use their smartphone several hours a day. Although there are concerns about how such behaviour might affect their well-being, the popularity of these powerful devices also opens novel opportunities for monitoring well-being in daily life. If successful, monitoring well-being in daily life provides novel opportunities to develop future interventions that provide personalized support to individuals at the moment they require it (just-in-time adaptive interventions). Taking an interdisciplinary approach with insights from communication, computational, and psychological science, this dissertation investigated the relation between smartphone app use and well-being and developed machine learning models to estimate an individual’s well-being based on how they interact with their smartphone. To elucidate the relation between smartphone trace data and well-being and to contribute to the development of technologies for monitoring well-being in future clinical practice, this dissertation addressed two overarching questions:RQ1: Can we find empirical support for theoretically motivated relations between smartphone trace data and well-being in individuals? RQ2: Can we use smartphone trace data to monitor well-being in individuals?Aims The first aim of this dissertation was to quantify the relation between the collected smartphone trace data and momentary well-being at the sample level, but also for each individual, following recent conceptual insights and empirical findings in psychological, communication, and computational science. A strength of this personalized (or idiographic) approach is that it allows us to capture how individuals might differ in how smartphone app use is related to their well-being. Considering such interindividual differences is important to determine if some individuals might potentially benefit from spending more time on their smartphone apps whereas others do not or even experience adverse effects. The second aim of this dissertation was to develop models for monitoring well-being in daily life. The present work pursued this transdisciplinary aim by taking a machine learning approach and evaluating to what extent we might estimate an individual’s well-being based on their smartphone trace data. If such traces can be used for this purpose by helping to pinpoint when individuals are unwell, they might be a useful data source for developing future interventions that provide personalized support to individuals at the moment they require it (just-in-time adaptive interventions). With this aim, the dissertation follows current developments in psychoinformatics and psychiatry, where much research resources are invested in using smartphone traces and similar data (obtained with smartphone sensors and wearables) to develop technologies for detecting whether an individual is currently unwell or will be in the future. Data collection and analysis This work combined novel data collection techniques (digital phenotyping and experience sampling methodology) for measuring smartphone use and well-being in the daily lives of 247 student participants. For a period up to four months, a dedicated application installed on participants’ smartphones collected smartphone trace data. In the same time period, participants completed a brief smartphone-based well-being survey five times a day (for 30 days in the first month and 30 days in the fourth month; up to 300 assessments in total). At each measurement, this survey comprised questions about the participants’ momentary level of procrastination, stress, and fatigue, while sleep duration was measured in the morning. Taking a time-series and machine learning approach to analysing these data, I provide the following contributions: Chapter 2 investigates the person-specific relation between passively logged usage of different application types and momentary subjective procrastination, Chapter 3 develops machine learning methodology to estimate sleep duration using smartphone trace data, Chapter 4 combines machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence to discover smartphone-tracked digital markers of momentary subjective stress, Chapter 5 uses a personalized machine learning approach to evaluate if smartphone trace data contains behavioral signs of fatigue. Collectively, these empirical studies provide preliminary answers to the overarching questions of this dissertation.Summary of results With respect to the theoretically motivated relations between smartphone trace data and wellbeing (RQ1), we found that different patterns in smartphone trace data, from time spent on social network, messenger, video, and game applications to smartphone-tracked sleep proxies, are related to well-being in individuals. The strength and nature of this relation depends on the individual and app usage pattern under consideration. The relation between smartphone app use patterns and well-being is limited in most individuals, but relatively strong in a minority. Whereas some individuals might benefit from using specific app types, others might experience decreases in well-being when spending more time on these apps. With respect to the question whether we might use smartphone trace data to monitor well-being in individuals (RQ2), we found that smartphone trace data might be useful for this purpose in some individuals and to some extent. They appear most relevant in the context of sleep monitoring (Chapter 3) and have the potential to be included as one of several data sources for monitoring momentary procrastination (Chapter 2), stress (Chapter 4), and fatigue (Chapter 5) in daily life. Outlook Future interdisciplinary research is needed to investigate whether the relationship between smartphone use and well-being depends on the nature of the activities performed on these devices, the content they present, and the context in which they are used. Answering these questions is essential to unravel the complex puzzle of developing technologies for monitoring well-being in daily life.<br/

Healthy snacks consumption and the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The role of anticipated regret

Two empirical studies explored the role of anticipated regret (AR) within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework (Ajzen, 1991), applied to the case of healthy snacks consumption. AR captures affective reactions and it can be defined as an unpleasant emotion experienced when people realize or imagine that the present situation would be better if they had made a different decision. In this research AR refers to the expected negative feelings for not having consumed healthy snacks (i.e., inaction regret). The aims were: a) to test whether AR improves the TPB predictive power; b) to analyze whether it acts as moderator within the TPB model relationships. Two longitudinal studies were conducted. Target behaviors were: consumption of fruit and vegetables as snacks (Study 1); consumption of fruit as snacks (Study 2). At time 1, the questionnaire included measures of intention and its antecedents, according to the TPB. Both the affective and evaluative components of attitude were assessed. At time 2, self-reported consumption behaviors were surveyed. Two convenience samples of Italian adults were recruited. In hierarchical regressions, the TPB variables were added at the first step; AR was added at the second step, and the interactions at the last step. Results showed that AR significantly improved the TPB ability to predict both intentions and behaviours, also after controlling for intention. In both studies AR moderated the effect of affective attitude on intention: affective attitude was significant only for people low in AR