Combined probabilistic linguistic term set and ELECTRE II method for solving a venture capital project evaluation problem

Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) frameworks assist people in assessing alternatives and making reasonable decisions, with the ELECTRE II MCDM method in particular being widely applied to many diverse fields. As it is not always possible to assess qualitative attributes or accurately evaluate alternatives using precise values, this paper proposes a new approach that combines the ELECTRE II method with probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTS) to allow decision makers to state their qualitative preferences using corresponding probabilities. To demonstrate the viability of the PTLS-ELECTRE II method and assess its practicability, the proposed method was applied to a typical MCDM venture capital project evaluation problem, for which a comprehensive venture capital project evaluation index system was constructed that included multiple qualitative and quantitative indicators, such as industry background, marketing, product technology, team management and financial data. The reasonable evaluation sequence of alternatives was then determined using the PTLS-ELECTRE II method which can provide more accurate MCDM decisions

Decision-making: a laboratory-based case study in conceptual design

The engineering design process may be seen as a series of interrelated operations that are driven by decisions: each operation is carried out as the consequence of an associated decision. Hence, an effective design process relies heavily upon effective decision-making. As a consequence, supporting decision-making may be a significant means for achieving design process improvements. This thesis concentrates on how to support selection-type decision-making in conceptual engineering design. [Continues.

A Review and Classification of Approaches for Dealing with Uncertainty in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Healthcare Decisions

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health economic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appropriate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles were read for methodological details. The search strategy identified 569 studies. The five approaches most identified were fuzzy set theory (45 % of studies), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (15 %), deterministic sensitivity analysis (31 %), Bayesian framework (6 %), and grey theory (3 %). A large number of papers considered the analytic hierarchy process in combination with fuzzy set theory (31 %). Only 3 % of studies were published in healthcare-related journals. In conclusion, our review identified five different approaches to take uncertainty into account in MCDA. The deterministic approach is most likely sufficient for most healthcare policy decisions because of its low complexity and straightforward implementation. However, more complex approaches may be needed when multiple sources of uncertainty must be considered simultaneousl

An integrated approach for solving a MCDM problem, Combination of Entropy Fuzzy and F-PROMETHEE techniques

Purpose: The intention of this paper is the presentation of a new integrated approach for solving a multi attribute decision making problem by the use of Entropy Fuzzy and F- PROMETHEE (fuzzy preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation) techniques. Design/methodology/approach: In these sorts of multi attribute decision making problem, a number of criteria and alternatives are put forward as input data. Ranking of these alternatives according to mentioned criteria is regarded as the outcome of solving these kinds of problems. Initially, weights of criteria are determined by implementation of Entropy Fuzzy method. According to determined weights, F-PROMETHEE method is exerted to rank these alternatives in terms of desirability of DM (decision maker). Findings: Being in an uncertain environment and vagueness of DM’s judgments, lead us to implement an algorithm which can deal with these constraints properly. This technique namely called Entropy Fuzzy as a weighting method and F-PROMETHEE is performed to fulfill this approach more precisely according to tangible and intangible aspects. The main finding of applied approach is the final ranking of alternatives helping DM to have a more reliable decision. Originality/Value: The main contribution of this approach is the giving real significance to DM’s attitudes about mentioned criteria in determined alternatives which is not elucidate in former approaches like Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Furthermore, previous methods like Shanon Entropy do not pay attention sufficiently to satisfaction degree of each criterion in proposed alternatives, regarding to DM’s statements. Comprehensive explanations about these procedures have been made in miscellaneous sections of this article.Peer Reviewe

GIS-based multicriteria analysis as decision support in flood risk management

In this report we develop a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach. This approach has the ability a) to consider also flood risks which are not measured in monetary terms, b) to show the spatial distribution of these multiple risks and c) to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to show their influence on the overall assessment. It can furthermore be used to show the spatial distribution of the effects of risk reduction measures. The approach is tested for a pilot study at the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Therefore, a GISdataset of economic as well as social and environmental risk criteria is built up. Two multicriteria decision rules, a disjunctive approach and an additive weighting approach are used to come to an overall assessment and mapping of flood risk in the area. Both the risk calculation and mapping of single criteria as well as the multicriteria analysis are supported by a software tool (FloodCalc) which was developed for this task. --

Multi-Criteria Decision Making under Uncertain Evaluations

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is a branch of operation research that aims to empower decision makers (DMs) in complex decision problems, where merely depending on DMs judgment is insufficient. Conventional MCDM approaches assume that precise information is available to analyze decision problems. However, decision problems in many applications involve uncertain, imprecise, and subjective data. This manuscripts-based thesis aims to address a number of challenges within the context of MCDM under uncertain evaluations, where the available data is relatively small and information is poor. The first manuscript is intended to handle decision problems, where interdependencies exist among evaluation criteria, while subjective and objective uncertainty are involved. To this end, a new hybrid MCDM methodology is introduced, in which grey systems theory is integrated with a distinctive combination of MCDM approaches. The emergent ability of the new methodology should improve the evaluation space in such a complex decision problem. The overall evaluation of a MCDM problem is based on alternatives evaluations over the different criteria and the associated weights of each criterion. However, information on criteria weights might be unknown. In the second manuscripts, MCDM problems with completely unknown weight information is investigated, where evaluations are uncertain. At first, to estimate the unknown criteria weights a new optimization model is proposed, which combines the maximizing deviation method and the principles of grey systems theory. To evaluate potential alternatives under uncertain evaluations, the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations approach is extended using degrees of possibility. In many decision areas, information is collected at different periods. Conventional MCDM approaches are not suitable to handle such a dynamic decision problem. Accordingly, the third manuscript aims to address dynamic MCDM (DMCDM) problems with uncertain evaluations over different periods, while information on criteria weights and the influence of different time periods are unknown. A new DMCDM is developed in which three phases are involved: (1) establish priorities among evaluation criteria over different periods; (2) estimate the weight of vectors of different time periods, where the variabilities in the influence of evaluation criteria over the different periods are considered; (3) assess potential alternatives

Learning OT constraint rankings using a maximum entropy model

Abstract. A weakness of standard Optimality Theory is its inability to account for grammar

A systematic review on multi-criteria group decision-making methods based on weights: analysis and classification scheme

Interest in group decision-making (GDM) has been increasing prominently over the last decade. Access to global databases, sophisticated sensors which can obtain multiple inputs or complex problems requiring opinions from several experts have driven interest in data aggregation. Consequently, the field has been widely studied from several viewpoints and multiple approaches have been proposed. Nevertheless, there is a lack of general framework. Moreover, this problem is exacerbated in the case of experts’ weighting methods, one of the most widely-used techniques to deal with multiple source aggregation. This lack of general classification scheme, or a guide to assist expert knowledge, leads to ambiguity or misreading for readers, who may be overwhelmed by the large amount of unclassified information currently available. To invert this situation, a general GDM framework is presented which divides and classifies all data aggregation techniques, focusing on and expanding the classification of experts’ weighting methods in terms of analysis type by carrying out an in-depth literature review. Results are not only classified but analysed and discussed regarding multiple characteristics, such as MCDMs in which they are applied, type of data used, ideal solutions considered or when they are applied. Furthermore, general requirements supplement this analysis such as initial influence, or component division considerations. As a result, this paper provides not only a general classification scheme and a detailed analysis of experts’ weighting methods but also a road map for researchers working on GDM topics or a guide for experts who use these methods. Furthermore, six significant contributions for future research pathways are provided in the conclusions.The first author acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Universities [grant number FPU18/01471]. The second and third author wish to recognize their support from the Serra Hunter program. Finally, this work was supported by the Catalan agency AGAUR through its research group support program (2017SGR00227). This research is part of the R&D project IAQ4EDU, reference no. PID2020-117366RB-I00, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/ 501100011033.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version