Monitoring E-commerce Adoption from Online Data

[EN] The purpose of this paper is to propose an intelligent system to automatically monitor the firms¿ engagement in e-commerce by analyzing online data retrieved from their corporate websites. The design of the proposed system combines web content mining and scraping techniques with learning methods for Big Data. Corporate websites are scraped to extract more than 150 features related to the e-commerce adoption, such as the presence of some keywords or a private area. Then, these features are taken as input by a classification model that includes dimensionality reduction techniques. The system is evaluated with a data set consisting of 426 corporate websites of firms based in France and Spain. The system successfully classified most of the firms into those that adopted e-commerce and those that did not, reaching a classification accuracy of 90.6%. This demonstrates the feasibility of monitoring e-commerce adoption from online data. Moreover, the proposed system represents a cost-effective alternative to surveys as method for collecting e-commerce information from companies, and is capable of providing more frequent information than surveys and avoids the non-response errors. This is the first research work to design and evaluate an intelligent system to automatically detect e-commerce engagement from online data. This proposal opens up the opportunity to monitor e-commerce adoption at a large scale, with highly granular information that otherwise would require every firm to complete a survey. In addition, it makes it possible to track the evolution of this activity in real time, so that governments and institutions could make informed decisions earlier.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness with Grant TIN2013-43913-R, and by the Spanish Ministry of Education with Grant FPU14/02386.Blazquez, D.; Domenech, J.; Gil, JA.; Pont Sanjuan, A. (2018). 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A Review on MAS-Based Sentiment and Stress Analysis User-Guiding and Risk-Prevention Systems in Social Network Analysis

[EN] In the current world we live immersed in online applications, being one of the most present of them Social Network Sites (SNSs), and different issues arise from this interaction. Therefore, there is a need for research that addresses the potential issues born from the increasing user interaction when navigating. For this reason, in this survey we explore works in the line of prevention of risks that can arise from social interaction in online environments, focusing on works using Multi-Agent System (MAS) technologies. For being able to assess what techniques are available for prevention, works in the detection of sentiment polarity and stress levels of users in SNSs will be reviewed. We review with special attention works using MAS technologies for user recommendation and guiding. 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The European Physical Journal B, 77(4), 533-545. doi:10.1140/epjb/e2010-00292-

Reducing Payment-Card Fraud

Critical public data in the United States are vulnerable to theft, creating severe financial and legal implications for payment-card acceptors. When security analysts and managers who work for payment card processing organizations implement strategies to reduce or eliminate payment-card fraud, they protect their organizations, consumers, and the local and national economy. Grounded in Cressey’s fraud theory, the purpose of this qualitative single case study was to explore strategies business owners and card processors use to reduce or eliminate payment-card fraud. The participants were 3 data security analysts and 1 manager working for an international payment card processing organization with 10 years or more experience working with payment card fraud detection in the southeastern United States. The data collection process was face-to-face semistructured interviews and review of company documentation. Within-case analysis, pattern matching, and methodological triangulation were used to identify 4 themes. The key themes related to artificial intelligence, cardholder and acceptor education, enhanced security strategies, and Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI-DSS) rules and regulations to reduce or end card fraud. The key recommendations are enforcement of stricter PCI-DSS rules and regulations for accepting payment cards at the acceptor and processor levels to reduce the potential for fraud through the use of holograms and card reader clearance between customers. The implications for social change include the potential to reduce costs to consumers, reduce overhead costs for businesses, and provide price reductions for consumers. Additionally, consumers may gain a sense of security when using their payment-card for purchases

Design and Evaluation of Web-Based Economic Indicators: A Big Data Analysis Approach

Tesis por compendio[ES] En la Era Digital, el creciente uso de Internet y de dispositivos digitales está transformando completamente la forma de interactuar en el contexto económico y social. Miles de personas, empresas y organismos públicos utilizan Internet en sus actividades diarias, generando de este modo una enorme cantidad de datos actualizados ("Big Data") accesibles principalmente a través de la World Wide Web (WWW), que se ha convertido en el mayor repositorio de información del mundo. Estas huellas digitales se pueden rastrear y, si se procesan y analizan de manera apropiada, podrían ayudar a monitorizar en tiempo real una infinidad de variables económicas. En este contexto, el objetivo principal de esta tesis doctoral es generar indicadores económicos, basados en datos web, que sean capaces de proveer regularmente de predicciones a corto plazo ("nowcasting") sobre varias actividades empresariales que son fundamentales para el crecimiento y desarrollo de las economías. Concretamente, tres indicadores económicos basados en la web han sido diseñados y evaluados: en primer lugar, un indicador de orientación exportadora, basado en un modelo que predice si una empresa es exportadora; en segundo lugar, un indicador de adopción de comercio electrónico, basado en un modelo que predice si una empresa ofrece la posibilidad de venta online; y en tercer lugar, un indicador de supervivencia empresarial, basado en dos modelos que indican la probabilidad de supervivencia de una empresa y su tasa de riesgo. Para crear estos indicadores, se han descargado una diversidad de datos de sitios web corporativos de forma manual y automática, que posteriormente se han procesado y analizado con técnicas de análisis Big Data. Los resultados muestran que los datos web seleccionados están altamente relacionados con las variables económicas objeto de estudio, y que los indicadores basados en la web que se han diseñado en esta tesis capturan en un alto grado los valores reales de dichas variables económicas, siendo por tanto válidos para su uso por parte del mundo académico, de las empresas y de los decisores políticos. Además, la naturaleza online y digital de los indicadores basados en la web hace posible proveer regularmente y de forma barata de predicciones a corto plazo. Así, estos indicadores son ventajosos con respecto a los indicadores tradicionales. Esta tesis doctoral ha contribuido a generar conocimiento sobre la viabilidad de producir indicadores económicos con datos online procedentes de sitios web corporativos. Los indicadores que se han diseñado pretenden contribuir a la modernización en la producción de estadísticas oficiales, así como ayudar a los decisores políticos y los gerentes de empresas a tomar decisiones informadas más rápidamente.[CA] A l'Era Digital, el creixent ús d'Internet i dels dispositius digitals està transformant completament la forma d'interactuar al context econòmic i social. Milers de persones, empreses i organismes públics utilitzen Internet a les seues activitats diàries, generant d'aquesta forma una enorme quantitat de dades actualitzades ("Big Data") accessibles principalment mitjançant la World Wide Web (WWW), que s'ha convertit en el major repositori d'informació del món. Aquestes empremtes digitals poden rastrejar-se i, si se processen i analitzen de forma apropiada, podrien ajudar a monitoritzar en temps real una infinitat de variables econòmiques. En aquest context, l'objectiu principal d'aquesta tesi doctoral és generar indicadors econòmics, basats en dades web, que siguen capaços de proveïr regularment de prediccions a curt termini ("nowcasting") sobre diverses activitats empresarials que són fonamentals per al creixement i desenvolupament de les economies. Concretament, tres indicadors econòmics basats en la web han sigut dissenyats i avaluats: en primer lloc, un indicador d'orientació exportadora, basat en un model que prediu si una empresa és exportadora; en segon lloc, un indicador d'adopció de comerç electrònic, basat en un model que prediu si una empresa ofereix la possibilitat de venda online; i en tercer lloc, un indicador de supervivència empresarial, basat en dos models que indiquen la probabilitat de supervivència d'una empresa i la seua tasa de risc. Per a crear aquestos indicadors, s'han descarregat una diversitat de dades de llocs web corporatius de forma manual i automàtica, que posteriorment s'han analitzat i processat amb tècniques d'anàlisi Big Data. Els resultats mostren que les dades web seleccionades estan altament relacionades amb les variables econòmiques objecte d'estudi, i que els indicadors basats en la web que s'han dissenyat en aquesta tesi capturen en un alt grau els valors reals d'aquestes variables econòmiques, sent per tant vàlids per al seu ús per part del món acadèmic, de les empreses i dels decisors polítics. A més, la naturalesa online i digital dels indicadors basats en la web fa possible proveïr regularment i de forma barata de prediccions a curt termini. D'aquesta forma, són avantatjosos en comparació als indicadors tradicionals. Aquesta tesi doctoral ha contribuït a generar coneixement sobre la viabilitat de produïr indicadors econòmics amb dades online procedents de llocs web corporatius. Els indicadors que s'han dissenyat pretenen contribuïr a la modernització en la producció d'estadístiques oficials, així com ajudar als decisors polítics i als gerents d'empreses a prendre decisions informades més ràpidament.[EN] In the Digital Era, the increasing use of the Internet and digital devices is completely transforming the way of interacting in the economic and social framework. Myriad individuals, companies and public organizations use the Internet for their daily activities, generating a stream of fresh data ("Big Data") principally accessible through the World Wide Web (WWW), which has become the largest repository of information in the world. These digital footprints can be tracked and, if properly processed and analyzed, could help to monitor in real time a wide range of economic variables. In this context, the main goal of this PhD thesis is to generate economic indicators, based on web data, which are able to provide regular, short-term predictions ("nowcasting") about some business activities that are basic for the growth and development of an economy. Concretely, three web-based economic indicators have been designed and evaluated: first, an indicator of firms' export orientation, which is based on a model that predicts if a firm is an exporter; second, an indicator of firms' engagement in e-commerce, which is based on a model that predicts if a firm offers e-commerce facilities in its website; and third, an indicator of firms' survival, which is based on two models that indicate the probability of survival of a firm and its hazard rate. To build these indicators, a variety of data from corporate websites have been retrieved manually and automatically, and subsequently have been processed and analyzed with Big Data analysis techniques. Results show that the selected web data are highly related to the economic variables under study, and the web-based indicators designed in this thesis are capturing to a great extent their real values, thus being valid for their use by the academia, firms and policy-makers. Additionally, the digital and online nature of web-based indicators makes it possible to provide timely, inexpensive predictions about the economy. This way, they are advantageous with respect to traditional indicators. This PhD thesis has contributed to generating knowledge about the viability of producing economic indicators with data coming from corporate websites. The indicators that have been designed are expected to contribute to the modernization of official statistics and to help in making earlier, more informed decisions to policy-makers and business managers.Blázquez Soriano, MD. (2019). Design and Evaluation of Web-Based Economic Indicators: A Big Data Analysis Approach [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/116836TESISCompendi

Approches organisationnelles pour la conception de systèmes multi-agents dédiés à la gestion des connaissances; Application aux projets d'ingénierie et d'innovation Composition du jury

Approches organisationnelles pour la conception de systèmes multi-agents dédiés à la gestion des connaissances; Application aux projets d’ingénierie et d’innovatio

A Multi-Agent System for guiding users in on-line social environments

[EN] The present work is a study of the detection of negative affective or emotional states, the high-stress levels that people have using social network sites (SNSs), and the effect that this negative state or stress level has on the repercussions of posted messages. We aim to discover to what extent a user that has a state detected as negative by an analyzer (Sentiment analyzer and Stress analyzer) can affect other users and generate negative repercussions, and also determine whether it is more suitable to predict a future negative situation using different analyzers. We propose two different methods for creating a combined model of sentiment and stress, and we use them in our experimentation to discern which one is more suitable for predicting future negative situations that could arise from the interaction between users, and in what context. Additionally, we designed a Multi-Agent System (MAS) that integrates the analyzers to protect or advise users on a SNS. We have conducted this study to help build future systems that prevent negative situations where a user that has a negative state creates a repercussion in the SNS. This can help users avoid getting into a bad mood or help avoid privacy issues (e.g. a user that has a negative state posting information that the user does not really want to post).This work was supported by the project TIN2017-89156-R of the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, Government of Spain.Aguado-Sarrió, G.; Julian Inglada, VJ.; García-Fornes, A.; Espinosa Minguet, AR. (2020). A Multi-Agent System for guiding users in on-line social environments. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence. 94:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2020.103740S11494Aguado, G., Julian, V., & Garcia-Fornes, A. (2018). Towards Aiding Decision-Making in Social Networks by Using Sentiment and Stress Combined Analysis. 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Survey on Aspect-Level Sentiment Analysis. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 28(3), 813-830. doi:10.1109/tkde.2015.2485209Thelwall, M. (2017). TensiStrength: Stress and relaxation magnitude detection for social media texts. Information Processing & Management, 53(1), 106-121. doi:10.1016/j.ipm.2016.06.009Thelwall, M., Buckley, K., Paltoglou, G., Cai, D., & Kappas, A. (2010). Sentiment strength detection in short informal text. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 61(12), 2544-2558. doi:10.1002/asi.21416Vanderhoven, E., Schellens, T., Vanderlinde, R., & Valcke, M. (2015). Developing educational materials about risks on social network sites: a design based research approach. Educational Technology Research and Development, 64(3), 459-480. doi:10.1007/s11423-015-9415-4Xie, W., & Kang, C. (2015). See you, see me: Teenagers’ self-disclosure and regret of posting on social network site. 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