6,896 research outputs found
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
Unattended network operations technology assessment study. Technical support for defining advanced satellite systems concepts
The results are summarized of an unattended network operations technology assessment study for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). The scope of the work included: (1) identified possible enhancements due to the proposed Mars communications network; (2) identified network operations on Mars; (3) performed a technology assessment of possible supporting technologies based on current and future approaches to network operations; and (4) developed a plan for the testing and development of these technologies. The most important results obtained are as follows: (1) addition of a third Mars Relay Satellite (MRS) and MRS cross link capabilities will enhance the network's fault tolerance capabilities through improved connectivity; (2) network functions can be divided into the six basic ISO network functional groups; (3) distributed artificial intelligence technologies will augment more traditional network management technologies to form the technological infrastructure of a virtually unattended network; and (4) a great effort is required to bring the current network technology levels for manned space communications up to the level needed for an automated fault tolerance Mars communications network
Applying autonomy to distributed satellite systems: Trends, challenges, and future prospects
While monolithic satellite missions still pose significant advantages in terms of accuracy and
operations, novel distributed architectures are promising improved flexibility, responsiveness,
and adaptability to structural and functional changes. Large satellite swarms, opportunistic satellite
networks or heterogeneous constellations hybridizing small-spacecraft nodes with highperformance
satellites are becoming feasible and advantageous alternatives requiring the adoption
of new operation paradigms that enhance their autonomy. While autonomy is a notion that
is gaining acceptance in monolithic satellite missions, it can also be deemed an integral characteristic
in Distributed Satellite Systems (DSS). In this context, this paper focuses on the motivations
for system-level autonomy in DSS and justifies its need as an enabler of system qualities. Autonomy
is also presented as a necessary feature to bring new distributed Earth observation functions
(which require coordination and collaboration mechanisms) and to allow for novel structural
functions (e.g., opportunistic coalitions, exchange of resources, or in-orbit data services). Mission
Planning and Scheduling (MPS) frameworks are then presented as a key component to implement
autonomous operations in satellite missions. An exhaustive knowledge classification explores the
design aspects of MPS for DSS, and conceptually groups them into: components and organizational
paradigms; problem modeling and representation; optimization techniques and metaheuristics;
execution and runtime characteristics and the notions of tasks, resources, and constraints.
This paper concludes by proposing future strands of work devoted to study the trade-offs of
autonomy in large-scale, highly dynamic and heterogeneous networks through frameworks that
consider some of the limitations of small spacecraft technologies.Postprint (author's final draft
Deep Space Network information system architecture study
The purpose of this article is to describe an architecture for the Deep Space Network (DSN) information system in the years 2000-2010 and to provide guidelines for its evolution during the 1990s. The study scope is defined to be from the front-end areas at the antennas to the end users (spacecraft teams, principal investigators, archival storage systems, and non-NASA partners). The architectural vision provides guidance for major DSN implementation efforts during the next decade. A strong motivation for the study is an expected dramatic improvement in information-systems technologies, such as the following: computer processing, automation technology (including knowledge-based systems), networking and data transport, software and hardware engineering, and human-interface technology. The proposed Ground Information System has the following major features: unified architecture from the front-end area to the end user; open-systems standards to achieve interoperability; DSN production of level 0 data; delivery of level 0 data from the Deep Space Communications Complex, if desired; dedicated telemetry processors for each receiver; security against unauthorized access and errors; and highly automated monitor and control
Thirty Years of Machine Learning: The Road to Pareto-Optimal Wireless Networks
Future wireless networks have a substantial potential in terms of supporting
a broad range of complex compelling applications both in military and civilian
fields, where the users are able to enjoy high-rate, low-latency, low-cost and
reliable information services. Achieving this ambitious goal requires new radio
techniques for adaptive learning and intelligent decision making because of the
complex heterogeneous nature of the network structures and wireless services.
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have great success in supporting big data
analytics, efficient parameter estimation and interactive decision making.
Hence, in this article, we review the thirty-year history of ML by elaborating
on supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning and deep
learning. Furthermore, we investigate their employment in the compelling
applications of wireless networks, including heterogeneous networks (HetNets),
cognitive radios (CR), Internet of things (IoT), machine to machine networks
(M2M), and so on. This article aims for assisting the readers in clarifying the
motivation and methodology of the various ML algorithms, so as to invoke them
for hitherto unexplored services as well as scenarios of future wireless
networks.Comment: 46 pages, 22 fig
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