Updating beliefs with incomplete observations

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete. This is a fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks. Recently, Grunwald and Halpern have shown that commonly used updating strategies fail in this case, except under very special assumptions. In this paper we propose a new method for updating probabilities with incomplete observations. Our approach is deliberately conservative: we make no assumptions about the so-called incompleteness mechanism that associates complete with incomplete observations. We model our ignorance about this mechanism by a vacuous lower prevision, a tool from the theory of imprecise probabilities, and we use only coherence arguments to turn prior into posterior probabilities. In general, this new approach to updating produces lower and upper posterior probabilities and expectations, as well as partially determinate decisions. This is a logical consequence of the existing ignorance about the incompleteness mechanism. We apply the new approach to the problem of classification of new evidence in probabilistic expert systems, where it leads to a new, so-called conservative updating rule. In the special case of Bayesian networks constructed using expert knowledge, we provide an exact algorithm for classification based on our updating rule, which has linear-time complexity for a class of networks wider than polytrees. This result is then extended to the more general framework of credal networks, where computations are often much harder than with Bayesian nets. Using an example, we show that our rule appears to provide a solid basis for reliable updating with incomplete observations, when no strong assumptions about the incompleteness mechanism are justified.Comment: Replaced with extended versio

Partition function zeros at first-order phase transitions: Pirogov-Sinai theory

This paper is a continuation of our previous analysis [BBCKK] of partition functions zeros in models with first-order phase transitions and periodic boundary conditions. Here it is shown that the assumptions under which the results of [BBCKK] were established are satisfied by a large class of lattice models. These models are characterized by two basic properties: The existence of only a finite number of ground states and the availability of an appropriate contour representation. This setting includes, for instance, the Ising, Potts and Blume-Capel models at low temperatures. The combined results of [BBCKK] and the present paper provide complete control of the zeros of the partition function with periodic boundary conditions for all models in the above class.Comment: 46 pages, 2 figs; continuation of math-ph/0304007 and math-ph/0004003, to appear in J. Statist. Phys. (special issue dedicated to Elliott Lieb

Branching Processes, and Random-Cluster Measures on Trees

Random-cluster measures on infinite regular trees are studied in conjunction with a general type of `boundary condition', namely an equivalence relation on the set of infinite paths of the tree. The uniqueness and non-uniqueness of random-cluster measures are explored for certain classes of equivalence relations. In proving uniqueness, the following problem concerning branching processes is encountered and answered. Consider bond percolation on the family-tree $T$ of a branching process. What is the probability that every infinite path of $T$, beginning at its root, contains some vertex which is itself the root of an infinite open sub-tree

Enumerating Graph Partitions Without Too Small Connected Components Using Zero-suppressed Binary and Ternary Decision Diagrams

Partitioning a graph into balanced components is important for several applications. For multi-objective problems, it is useful not only to find one solution but also to enumerate all the solutions with good values of objectives. However, there are a vast number of graph partitions in a graph, and thus it is difficult to enumerate desired graph partitions efficiently. In this paper, an algorithm to enumerate all the graph partitions such that all the weights of the connected components are at least a specified value is proposed. To deal with a large search space, we use zero-suppressed binary decision diagrams (ZDDs) to represent sets of graph partitions and we design a new algorithm based on frontier-based search, which is a framework to directly construct a ZDD. Our algorithm utilizes not only ZDDs but also ternary decision diagrams (TDDs) and realizes an operation which seems difficult to be designed only by ZDDs. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm runs up to tens of times faster than an existing state-of-the-art algorithm

Energy management in communication networks: a journey through modelling and optimization glasses

The widespread proliferation of Internet and wireless applications has produced a significant increase of ICT energy footprint. As a response, in the last five years, significant efforts have been undertaken to include energy-awareness into network management. Several green networking frameworks have been proposed by carefully managing the network routing and the power state of network devices. Even though approaches proposed differ based on network technologies and sleep modes of nodes and interfaces, they all aim at tailoring the active network resources to the varying traffic needs in order to minimize energy consumption. From a modeling point of view, this has several commonalities with classical network design and routing problems, even if with different objectives and in a dynamic context. With most researchers focused on addressing the complex and crucial technological aspects of green networking schemes, there has been so far little attention on understanding the modeling similarities and differences of proposed solutions. This paper fills the gap surveying the literature with optimization modeling glasses, following a tutorial approach that guides through the different components of the models with a unified symbolism. A detailed classification of the previous work based on the modeling issues included is also proposed