Risk-Aware Planning for Sensor Data Collection

With the emergence of low-cost unmanned air vehicles, civilian and military organizations are quickly identifying new applications for affordable, large-scale collectives to support and augment human efforts via sensor data collection. In order to be viable, these collectives must be resilient to the risk and uncertainty of operating in real-world environments. Previous work in multi-agent planning has avoided planning for the loss of agents in environments with risk. In contrast, this dissertation presents a problem formulation that includes the risk of losing agents, the effect of those losses on the mission being executed, and provides anticipatory planning algorithms that consider risk. We conduct a thorough analysis of the effects of risk on path-based planning, motivating new solution methods. We then use hierarchical clustering to generate risk-aware plans for a variable number of agents, outperforming traditional planning methods. Next, we provide a mechanism for distributed negotiation of stable plans, utilizing coalitional game theory to provide cost allocation methods that we prove to be fair and stable. Centralized planning with redundancy is then explored, planning for parallel task completion to mitigate risk and provide further increased expected value. Finally, we explore the role of cost uncertainty as additional source of risk, using bi-objective optimization to generate sets of alternative plans. We demonstrate the capability of our algorithms on randomly generated problem instances, showing an improvement over traditional multi-agent planning methods as high as 500% on very large problem instances

Effects of Dynamically Weighting Autonomous Rules in a UAS Flocking Model

Within the U.S. military, senior decision-makers and researchers alike have postulated that vast improvements could be made to current Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Concepts of Operation through inclusion of autonomous flocking. Myriad methods of implementation and desirable mission sets for this technology have been identified in the literature; however, this thesis posits that specific missions and behaviors are best suited for autonomous military flocking implementations. Adding to Craig Reynolds\u27 basic theory that three naturally observed rules can be used as building blocks for simulating flocking behavior, new rules are proposed and defined in the development of an autonomous flocking UAS model. Simulation validates that missions of military utility can be accomplished in this method through incorporation of dynamic event- and time-based rule weights. Additionally, a methodology is proposed and demonstrated that iteratively improves simulated mission effectiveness. Quantitative analysis is presented on data from 570 simulation runs, which verifies the hypothesis that iterative changes to rule parameters and weights demonstrate significant improvement over baseline performance. For a 36 square mile scenario, results show a 100% increase in finding targets, a 40.2% reduction in time to find a target, a 4.5% increase in area coverage, with a 0% attribution rate due to collisions and near misses

Modeling a Chemical Battlefield and the Resulting Effects in a Theater-Level Combat Model

This thesis describes the development of a methodology to model chemical weapons use in the Joint Staff\u27s Joint Warfare Analysis Experimental Prototype (JWAEP) and to quantify the resulting effects. The methodology incorporates organic unit assets and theater-level chemical assets into JWAEP by using the three principles of nuclear, biological, and chemical defense (NBC) which reflect joint and Army doctrine, and combines them with the basic concepts already used in existing theater-level models. Other aspects of the problem include representing chemical \u27packages\u27 on the battlefield, determining attrition and time effects, adjusting unit effectiveness, determining chemical package intelligence acquisition procedures, identifying solution techniques, verifying the results, and making recommendations. The proposed solution techniques provide a feasible methodology for integrating high resolution modeling into a low resolution model. The algorithms incorporate the chemical estimate process, Mission Oriented Protective Posture (MOPP) analysis, and employment of appropriate doctrinal unit tactics based on a perception of existing or potential chemical weapons use. Thus, the methodology provides accurate input into the JWAEP for approximating real world results as well as a structured and quantifiable framework reflecting joint and Army doctrine that can be used for stand alone chemical effects analysis

A Methodological Framework for Parametric Combat Analysis

This work presents a taxonomic structure for understanding the tension between certain factors of stability for game-theoretic outcomes such as Nash optimality, Pareto optimality, and balance optimality and then applies such game-theoretic concepts to the advancement of strategic thought on spacepower. This work successfully adapts and applies combat modeling theory to the evaluation of cislunar space conflict. This work provides evidence that the reliability characteristics of small spacecraft share similarities to the reliability characteristics of large spacecraft. Using these novel foundational concepts, this dissertation develops and presents a parametric methodological framework capable of analyzing the efficacy of heterogeneous force compositions in the context of space warfare. This framework is shown to be capable of predicting a stochastic distribution of numerical outcomes associated with various modes of conflict and parameter values. Furthermore, this work demonstrates a general alignment in results between the game-theoretic concepts of the framework and Media Interaction Warfare Theory in terms of evaluating force efficacy, providing strong evidence for the validity of the methodological framework presented in this dissertation

The effect of sensory processing on the work performance of call centre agents in a South African context

Background: Call centres are thriving and expanding commercial enterprises providing cost-effective ways for organisations to connect with new and existing clients through telecommunication channels. Call centre agents perform this function telephonically for 75% of the day in large open-plan office environments characterised by workloads that are demanding, repetitive and highly scripted. Verbal abuse by clients is prevalent adding to a work experience that is potentially emotionally draining and stressful. Agents are under constant surveillance and monitoring to abide with commercial regulations but also to ensure high call volume and quality engagement with clients, these being the most important performance indicators. High staff absenteeism and attrition levels account for large financial losses in the industry. To date no studies have been found considering the impact of sensory processing of call centre agents on their performance, absenteeism and attrition. Sensory processing considers the neuro-physiological and behavioural components of individuals in the interactions with their daily work occupations and life environments. Although predominantly applied in paediatric clinical populations in occupational therapy, sensory processing provides universal truths about human behaviour which can add value to promoting wellness amongst healthy adults in work environments. Design: A quantitative, non-experimental and correlational study design was used to measure and compare demographic, sensory processing and performance data from 459 call centre staff within four fully operational call centres, which varied in type of operation, employer and geographical area in South Africa. The standardised and validated 60-item Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile (Brown, Tollefson, Dunn, Cromwell & Fillion, 2001) was used to measure sensory processing as neurological thresholds and potential propensity for individuals to cope with high sensory stimulating work environments. Agent performance data in each of the four centres were recorded daily, in real time, using sophisticated information technology systems, and included details about absenteeism. Attrition data were collected after the initial data intake to reflect true attrition. Results: Data were analysed using statistical methods to obtain locality (e.g. means, medians), dispersion (e.g. standard deviations and interquartile ranges) and associations (e.g. Spearman Rank correlations). Results showed strong, consistent and significant correlations between agents who displayed sensation avoiding processing and poor performance. Agents who exhibited sensation seeking processing had higher performance ratings. To a lesser, yet still significant, degree agents with low registration and sensory sensitivity also had lower performance ratings. Sensory sensitive agents were absent less often than other workers and sensation seeking agents showed a tendency for higher attrition. Results differed between service inbound call centres to sales and collections outbound ones. Team leaders, who are high performing agents promoted into these positions, had less sensory sensitive and sensation avoiding processing styles. A novel subset structure was designed to account for the multidimensional capacity of the AASP, and this was correlated with all the performance data. It provided a preliminary method for use in further research studies. The study strengths were the innovative sample in measuring sensory processing of healthy populations at work and the compilation of performance data through sophisticated computerised systems, which minimised the margin of error. Study limitations were the use of a self-questionnaire format for profile data collection and small sample sizes in subsequent data collection stages. Recommendations: The AASP has the potential to be used by call centre human resource practitioners for recruitment and performance management. Improved sensory environmental considerations and adaptations supportive of a more successful and healthier agent-job-environment fit are provided. The study findings support knowledge transfer into other general human resource management, education and training, occupational health management and occupational therapy practises. It expands the application of sensory processing theories and informs future research

Use of the Instantaneous Wave-free Ratio or Fractional Flow Reserve in PCI

BACKGROUND: Coronary revascularization guided by fractional flow reserve (FFR) is associated with better patient outcomes after the procedure than revascularization guided by angiography alone. It is unknown whether the instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR), an alternative measure that does not require the administration of adenosine, will offer benefits similar to those of FFR. METHODS: We randomly assigned 2492 patients with coronary artery disease, in a 1:1 ratio, to undergo either iFR-guided or FFR-guided coronary revascularization. The primary end point was the 1-year risk of major adverse cardiac events, which were a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or unplanned revascularization. The trial was designed to show the noninferiority of iFR to FFR, with a margin of 3.4 percentage points for the difference in risk. RESULTS: At 1 year, the primary end point had occurred in 78 of 1148 patients (6.8%) in the iFR group and in 83 of 1182 patients (7.0%) in the FFR group (difference in risk, -0.2 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.3 to 1.8; P<0.001 for noninferiority; hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.33; P=0.78). The risk of each component of the primary end point and of death from cardiovascular or noncardiovascular causes did not differ significantly between the groups. The number of patients who had adverse procedural symptoms and clinical signs was significantly lower in the iFR group than in the FFR group (39 patients [3.1%] vs. 385 patients [30.8%], P<0.001), and the median procedural time was significantly shorter (40.5 minutes vs. 45.0 minutes, P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Coronary revascularization guided by iFR was noninferior to revascularization guided by FFR with respect to the risk of major adverse cardiac events at 1 year. The rate of adverse procedural signs and symptoms was lower and the procedural time was shorter with iFR than with FFR. (Funded by Philips Volcano; DEFINE-FLAIR ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02053038 .)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

SEA 32 MULTI-DOMAIN, MANNED-UNMANNED LITTORAL DENIAL SYSTEM

This report details a systems engineering approach to design a manned-unmanned, multi-domain, littoral denial system of systems, projected over the next decade. Mission context scenarios were created to provide diverse system operating environments, enabling a flexible system architecture to address a variety of threats in near-peer competition. With efforts to employ cost-effective and attritable unmanned components, open-source platform reviews were conducted to determine performance parameters, cost, and technical readiness levels, ultimately influencing the eligibility and appropriateness of these platforms for system integration. This evaluation led to a value system design for each candidate platform, providing quantitative analysis for its potential contribution to our system functions as they pertain to each mission scenario. An optimization program under cost constraints was then utilized to yield ideal platform combinations while meeting all functional requirements. Each architecture that resulted from the optimization program was then subjected to a combat model to verify its effectiveness, and then compared to conventional littoral denial constructs. Analysis and comparison of each system architecture yielded relevant insights for the project sponsor at OPNAV N9I (Director of Warfare Integration). Each scenario-dependent system of systems yielded improvements in certain functional evaluations, while also producing degradations in other functional areas.Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.Major, Republic of Singapore NavyMajor, Brazilian Air ForceLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States Nav

ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF LETHALITY AND SURVIVABILITY FOR THE MARINE LITTORAL REGIMENT

As the Marine Corps activates the Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) to serve as the joint force’s reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance effort, questions abound regarding the MLR’s ability to provide a persistent and lethal presence well inside the reach of our adversaries’ advanced long-range precision fires. In this study, the author uses agent-based combat simulations to inform future force design decisions, live-force experimentation, and tactics. The simulated scenario imagines a future MLR conducting sea control operations in the littorals of the Western Pacific against a peer naval threat. This research investigates the effect that a guard force of autonomous and/or semi-autonomous surface vessels, operating as the guard force of the MLR’s defense in depth, has on the survivability and lethality of the MLR’s land-based anti-ship missile platforms. Summary statistics generated by the simulation indicate that the future battlefield will see high losses on both sides. However, based on the results of 27,200 simulated engagements, this study finds that an MLR using a guard force of armed and unarmed “scouts” as described above can inflict a prohibitively high and unsustainable cost on an enemy naval force.Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Survey of End-to-End Mobile Network Measurement Testbeds, Tools, and Services

Mobile (cellular) networks enable innovation, but can also stifle it and lead to user frustration when network performance falls below expectations. As mobile networks become the predominant method of Internet access, developer, research, network operator, and regulatory communities have taken an increased interest in measuring end-to-end mobile network performance to, among other goals, minimize negative impact on application responsiveness. In this survey we examine current approaches to end-to-end mobile network performance measurement, diagnosis, and application prototyping. We compare available tools and their shortcomings with respect to the needs of researchers, developers, regulators, and the public. We intend for this survey to provide a comprehensive view of currently active efforts and some auspicious directions for future work in mobile network measurement and mobile application performance evaluation.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Communications Surveys and Tutorials. arXiv does not format the URL references correctly. For a correctly formatted version of this paper go to http://www.cs.montana.edu/mwittie/publications/Goel14Survey.pd