Pemodelan Propagasi Kebakaran di Ruang Tertutup Menggunakan Multiple State Variables Cellular Automata

Pemodelan perambatan api merupakan studi yang menarik namun menantang, dan sering dibahas dalam banyak literatur. Api adalah fenomena alam yang terjadi dalam kehidupan kita sehari-hari, karakteristiknya yang mudah menyulut memiliki peran penting dalam banyak kasus. Dari sekadar efek visual hingga peristiwa penting dalam penceritaan utama. Pentingnya api dan bagaimana penyebarannya dalam kehidupan sehari-hari mempengaruhi proses pengembangan permainan di mana api dapat muncul dan menyebar, menyebabkan kehancuran. Api memiliki pola penyebaran yang dapat didasarkan pada bahan yang disulut dan berapa lama api menyala sejak titik api pertama kali muncul. Dengan implikasi yang benar, pola perambatan api dapat disimulasikan dan diterapkan pada sebuah game untuk berkontribusi pada aspek realisme dan imersi dari setiap game. Cellular Automata didasarkan pada prinsip di mana suatu wilayah atau area dibagi menjadi dua sel dimensi di mana setiap sel memiliki atribut yang unik. Setiap sel dapat mempengaruhi sel lain mengingat sel tersebut bertetangga satu sama lain. Prinsip ini sebanding dengan termodinamika di mana panas atau dalam hal ini api hanya dapat menyebar ke area di sebelah bara. Mengingat Health Point di setiap sel, simulasi kebakaran dapat dibuat dan dimodifikasi sesuai dengan itu

Integrating Wildfires Propagation Prediction Into Early Warning of Electrical Transmission Line Outages

Wildfires could pose a significant danger to electrical transmission lines and cause considerable losses to the power grids and residents nearby. Previous studies of preventing wildfire damages to electrical transmission lines mostly analyze wildfire and power system security independently due to their differences in disciplines and cannot satisfy the requirement of the power grid for active and timely responses. In this paper, we have designed an integrated wildfire early warning system framework for power grids, taking prediction of wildfires and early warning of line outage probability together. First, the proposed model simulates the spatiotemporal process of wildfires via a geography cellular automata model and predicts when and where wildfires initially get into the security buffer of an electrical transmission line. It is developed in the context of electrical transmission line operating with various situations of topography, vegetation, wind and, especially, multiple ignition points. Second, we have proposed a line outage model (LOM), based on wildfire prediction and breakdown mechanisms of the air gap, to predict the breakdown probability varying with time and the most vulnerable poles at the holistic line scale. Finally, to illustrate the validation and rationality of our proposed system, a case study for a 500-kV transmission line near Miyi county, China, is presented, and the results under various wildfire situations are studied and compared. By integrating wildfire prediction into the LOM and alarming the holistic line breakdown probability along time, this paper makes a significant contribution in the early warning system to prevent transmission lines to be damaged by wildfires, illustrating the related breakdown mechanisms at the line operation level rather than laboratory experiments only. Meanwhile, the implementation of cellular automata model under comprehensive environmental conditions and simulation of the breakdown probability for the 500-kV transmission line could serve as references for other studies in the community

Cellular automata simulations of field scale flaming and smouldering wildfires in peatlands

In peatland wildfires, flaming vegetation can initiate a smouldering fire by igniting the peat underneath, thus, creating a positive feedback to climate change by releasing the carbon that cannot be reabsorbed by the ecosystem. Currently, there are very few models of peatland wildfires at the field-scale, hindering the development of effective mitigation strategies. This lack of models is mainly caused by the complexity of the phenomena, which involves 3-D spread and km-scale domains, and the very large computational resources required. This thesis aims to understand field-scale peatland wildfires, considering flaming and smouldering, via cellular automata, discrete models that use simple rules. Five multidimensional models were developed: two laboratory-scale models for smouldering, BARA and BARAPPY, and three field-scale models for flaming and smouldering, KAPAS, KAPAS II, and SUBALI. The models were validated against laboratory experiments and field data. BARA accurately simulates smouldering of peat with realistic moisture distributions and predicts the formation of unburned patches. BARAPPY brings physics into BARA and predicts the depth of burn profile, but needs 240 times more computational resources. KAPAS showed that the smouldering burnt area decreases exponentially with higher peat moisture content. KAPAS II integrates daily temporal variation of moisture content, and revealed that the omission of this temporal variation significantly underestimates the smouldering burnt area in the long term. SUBALI, the ultimate model of the thesis, integrates KAPAS II with BARA and considers the ground water table to predict the carbon emission of peatland wildfires. Applying SUBALI to Indonesia, it predicts that in El Niño years, 0.40 Gt-C in 2015 (literature said 0.23 to 0.51 Gt-C) and 0.16 Gt-C in 2019 were released, and 75% of the emission is from smouldering. This thesis provides knowledge and models to understand the spread of flaming and smouldering wildfires in peatlands, which can contribute to efforts to minimise the negative impacts of peatland wildfires on people and the environment, through faster-than-real-time simulations, to find the optimum firefighting strategy and to assess the vulnerability of peatland in the event of wildfires.Open Acces

Spatially explicit migration models of pike to support river management

De status van verschillende vissoorten in ons land, waaronder ook snoek (Esox lucius) voldoet niet aan de gestelde Europese vereisten. Behalve door een matige chemische waterkwaliteit komt dit voornamelijk door een ondermaatse habitatkwaliteit door habitatdegradatie, fragmentatie en obstructie. Rivierbeheerders plannen daarom maatregelen om het habitat te beschermen, te verbeteren of opnieuw toegankelijk te maken voor migrerende vissen. Habitatgeschiktheid- en soortverspreidingsmodellen kunnen helpen om het effect van deze maatregelen te voorspellen. Deze modellen zijn vaak niet in staat rekening te houden met factoren die gerelateerd zijn aan migratie en toegankelijkheid omdat ze niet ruimtelijk expliciet en dynamisch tegelijk zijn. In dit doctoraatsonderzoek evalueerden we de toepasbaarheid voor het simuleren van snoekmigratie van twee modelleertechnieken die wel geschikt lijken: Individueel Gebaseerde Modellen (IBMs) en Cellulaire Automaten (CAs). Daarnaast onderzochten we de migratiedynamiek, het habitatgebruik en de habitatpreferentie van volwassen snoeken ter ondersteuning van het rivierbeheer. Hiervoor werden veldgegevens verzameld van snoeken in de Ijzer (West-Vlaanderen) m.b.v. radiotelemetrie. De resultaten van dit onderzoek wijzen op een goede toepasbaarheid van IBMs en moeilijkheden bij het toepassen van de CAs voor de simulatie van snoekmigratie. De analyses van de veldgegevens tonen grote individuele verschillen in gedrag en onderlijnen het belang van habitatheterogeniteit en het toegankelijk maken van bestaande geschikte habitats voor volwassen snoeken. Dit onderzoek geeft meer inzicht in het ruimtelijk expliciet simuleren van snoekmigratie en levert kennis over de ecologie van snoek met directe suggesties voor rivierbeheerders