Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change

Forest cover gains and losses occur in response to complex environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Yet the impact of forest gains and losses on the provision of ecosystem services differs markedly. Here we investigate the social costs of potential forest carbon change in Australia's intensive agricultural region from 2015 to 2050 using spatial forest cover change and forest carbon models combined with climate and socioeconomic projections. More than 24,000 possible scenarios were used to identify the trend and lower and upper bounds of forest cover/carbon change. Net deforestation (3.5 million hectares, Mha)under the lower bound forest cover (LBFC)projection was around one-third less than net reforestation (4.8 Mha)under the upper bound forest cover (UBFC)projection by 2030. However, the CO emissions (1.3 Gigatons of CO , GtCO )from deforestation were more than double the sequestration (0.5 GtCO )from reforestation. The social costs (up to 134 billion dollars)of the LBFC were almost five times the benefits of the UBFC (up to 28 billion dollars). The asymmetry decreased over time but persisted to 2050. This shows the markedly different social costs of potential forest carbon losses and gains under global change, evidence which can be useful to policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners

A review of ecosystems services trade-offs, synergies and scenarios modelling for policy development support

Information about the effect of land management on ecosystem services is essential to make balanced decisions, develop sustainable political strategies, and determine future scenarios. Previous methods and tools have been developed to analyze the effects of land use/land cover on ecosystem services. Nevertheless, being able to model the uncertainties, complexities, interconnections, and different interactions between multiple drivers of change in future scenario analysis are still a challenge in ecosystem service research. Modelling ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies and evaluating their use in scenario analysis are important issues that require more understanding. Therefore, this study explores the link and relationships among scenarios, models, and ecosystem services that support the decision-making processes. Based on electronic database publications, a conceptual framework illustrating the key components of this approach is presented. Further implications in terms of innovative tools that aim to identify pathways towards sustainable and balanced land use are also presented. It was concluded that spatial modelling of ecosystem services relationships associated with scenario building allows decision makers to better understand the complex interactions that occur in social-ecological systems. This approach brings important elements to set decisions, strategies, regulations, and policies for holistic land-use planning and management at different scales, notably in Brazil, a large and environmentally diversified country

When multi-functional landscape meets Critical Zone science: advancing multi-disciplinary research for sustainable human well-being

Environmental degradation has become one of the major obstacles to sustainable development and human well-being internationally. Scientific efforts are being made to understand the mechanism of environmental degradation and sustainability. Critical Zone (CZ) science and research on the multi-functional landscape are emerging fields in earth science that can contribute to such scientific efforts. This paper reviews the progress, similarities and current status of these two scientific research fields, and identifies a number of opportunities for their synergistic integration through functional and multi-functional approaches, process-based monitoring, mechanistic analyses, and dynamic modelling, global long term and networked monitoring, and systematic modeling supported by scaling and deep coupling. These approaches proposed in this paper have the potential to support sustainable human well-being by strengthening a functional orientation that consolidates multi-functional landscape research and CZ science. This is a key challenge for sustainable development and human well-being in the 21st century

Solar and wind energy enhances drought resilience and groundwater sustainability

Water scarcity brings tremendous challenges to achieving sustainable development of water resources, food, and energy security, as these sectors are often in competition, especially during drought. Overcoming these challenges requires balancing trade-offs between sectors and improving resilience to drought impacts. An under-appreciated factor in managing the water-food-energy (WFE) nexus is the increased value of solar and wind energy (SWE). Here we develop a trade-off frontier framework to quantify the water sustainability value of SWE through a case study in California. We identify development pathways that optimize the economic value of water in competition for energy and food production while ensuring sustainable use of groundwater. Our results indicate that in the long term, SWE penetration creates beneficial feedback for the WFE nexus: SWE enhances drought resilience and benefits groundwater sustainability, and in turn, maintaining groundwater at a sustainable level increases the added value of SWE to energy and food production

Integrated models, frameworks and decision support tools to guide management and planning in Northern Australia. Final report

[Extract] There is a lot of interest in developing northern Australia while also caring for the unique Australian landscape (Commonwealth of Australia 2015). However, trying to decide how to develop and protect at the same time can be a challenge. There are many modelling tools available to inform these decisions, including integrated models, frameworks, and decision support tools, but there are so many different kinds that it’s difficult to determine which might be best suited to inform different decisions. To support planning and development decisions across northern Australia, this project aimed to create resources to help end-users (practitioners) to assess: 1. the availability and suitability of particular modelling tools; and 2. the feasibility of using, developing, and maintaining different types of modelling tools

Modelo de interacção espacial: um instrumento para o planeamento e análise do território

As alterações do uso do solo processam-se de forma natural ou mediante alterações induzidas pelo Homem, tratando-se de um processo evolutivo do desenvolvimento dos ecossistemas e das civilizações. Neste trabalho, desenvolveram-se metodologias que resultaram numa aplicação informática (SIMLU), a qual implementa um modelo de interação espacial do uso do solo, com o propósito de analisar as relações entre o Homem, a economia e o ambiente, de forma a entender como determinados fatores edafoclimáticos, económicos, tecnológicos, demográficos e regulamentares, influenciam a ocupação e o uso do solo. O modelo permite simular a ocupação do solo ao longo do tempo e do espaço, face a cenários de mudanças climáticas, distribuindo emprego por sector de atividade e população pelas diferentes zonas consideradas, gerando repercussões na ocupação do território, na estrutura socioeconómica das populações e no valor da terra. A partir dos cenários de alterações climáticas (RCP4.5 e RCP8.5), previstos no Quinto relatório de avaliação do Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas (AR5- IPCC), aplicou-se o SIMLU a dois casos de estudo com características distintas: Tahaddart no Nordeste de Marrocos e na ilha Terceira no Arquipélago dos Açores. O modelo foi calibrado e validado para cada um dos dois casos de estudo, onde progressivamente foram introduzidas melhorias ao nível da capacidade de cálculo, análise e apresentação dos resultados, passando desde a primeira versão em formato Excel® (SIMLU V1.0), para a versão atual (SIMLU V2.0) numa aplicação autónoma e independente com interface gráfica para utilizadores. Para o caso de estudo de Tahaddart e áreas adjacentes, foram considerados para cada cenário RCP’s (horizonte temporal de 2099) dois tipos de sub-cenários: ocupação do uso do solo com base na estrutura produtiva e das aptidões de referência (2011) e ocupação do território através substituição do uso. Para cada cenário tratado, face à situação de referência, verificou-se uma diminuição da população que variou entre os 6818 e os 14244 habitantes (RCP4.5) e entre 48991 e os 43974 habitantes (RCP8.5). Para o caso de estudo aplicado á ilha Terceira, utilizou-se unicamente o cenário regionalizado RCP8.5 (horizonte temporal de 2099), não sendo admitido a substituição de uso relativamente à variação das normais climatológicas utilizadas (temperatura média anual e precipitação anual acumulada). Foi ainda considerado a redução dos postos de trabalho na Base Área das Lajes - BA4. Estimou-se os impactos na população e no valor da terra, resultante das alterações climáticas e da BA4. Dos resultados obtidos, verificase uma considerável redução da área de pastagem, que resulta na perda direta de cerca de 195 empregos ligados ao sector da pecuária a que se juntam 285 postos de trabalho suprimidos na BA4. O cenário simulado traduz-se numa diminuição de 2599 habitantes (cerca de 4% da população da Terceira em 2011) e um decréscimo global do valor da terra de cerca de 524 milhões de euros. O SIMLU apresenta-se assim como uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão, replicada em regiões e contextos diferentes, numa perspetiva de avaliar impactos na ocupação do uso do solo perante diferentes cenários de alterações climáticas; ABSTRACT: Spatial Interaction Model – A Tool for Land Analysis and Planning Land use changes are a result of natural or human induced changes, being an evolutionary process of ecosystems and civilizations. Methodologies were developed in this work, resulting in computer program (SIMLU) which implements a spatial interaction model of land use, with the aim of analyzing the relations between Man, the economy and the environment, and how edaphoclimatic (that affect land suitability), economic, technological, demographical factors and policies, can influence land use. The model allows us to simulate land use, through time and space, given climatic changes, distributing employment for activities and population for each considered zones, generate impacts in land use, socioeconomic structure of the populations and in the land value. Starting with the land use scenarios (RCP4.5 e RCP8.5), presented in the Fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), SIMLU was applied in two case study areas with different characteristics: Tahaddart (Morocco) and Terceira island (Azores, Portugal). The model was calibrated and validated for each of the case study areas, improving on the calculation, analysis and outputs, starting from a Excel worksheet until arriving in the current form, an independent application with a user’s graphical interface. For each of the case studies, different outputs were presented allowing analysis of the model, as a decision support tool, which can be replicated for different contexts facing the evaluation of the impact of land use policies. Two types of sub-scenarios were considered in each RCP’s scenario, to Tahaddart basin: field occupation, based on productive structure and reference skills (2011) and occupation of the use replacement. In both scenarios, there was a population decrease raging 6818- 14244 habitants to RCP4.5 and 48991-43974 habitants to RCP8.5 scenario. For the case study applied to Terceira Island, only RCP8.5 was used for the temporal horizon to 2099, not admitting the use replacement relatively to the climatological norms used (average annual temperature and accumulated annual rainfall). The reduction of the working places in Air Base of Lajes- BA4, was also considered. The land values and the impact in population resulting from the climate changes and from the BA-4 was estimated. From the obtained results, a considerable decrease from the pasture area (resulting from the direct loss of the 195 jobs connected to the livestock) in which is added 285 jobs lost in BA-4. The simulated scenario indicates a diminution in the number of habitants, around 2599 (about 4% of the population in 2011) and a global decrease of the land value around 524 million euros. SIMLU presents as a support tool to decision, which can be replicated in different circumstances, concerning different scenarios in a way to evaluate the impacts of territory occupation regarding different climatic changes scenarios