Modelling the dynamics of frequent users of electronic commenrce in Spain using optimization techniques for inverse problems with uncertainty

[EN] In this paper, we retrieve data about the frequent users of electronic commerce during the period 2011-2016 from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. These data,coming from surveys, have intrinsic uncertainty that we describe using appropriate random variables. Then, we propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of frequent users of electronic commerce. The goal of this paper is to solve the inverse problem that consists of determining themodel parameters as suitable parametric random variables, in such a way the model output be capable of capturing the data uncertainty, at the time instantswhere sample data are available, via adequate probability density functions. To achieve the aforementioned goal, we propose a computational procedure that involves building a nonlinear objective function, based on statistical moment measures, to be minimized using a variation of the particle swarm optimization algorithm.This work has been supported by the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad Grant MTM2017-89664-P.Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Lombana, IC.; Martínez Rodríguez, D.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2018). Modelling the dynamics of frequent users of electronic commenrce in Spain using optimization techniques for inverse problems with uncertainty. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications. 158(3):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10957-018-1382-6S1121583Dorini, F.A., Cecconello, M.S., Dorini, M.B.: On the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the environmental carrying capacity and initial population density. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 33, 160–173 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.09.009Hussein, A., Selim, M.M.: Solution of the stochastic radiative transfer equation with Rayleigh scattering using RVT technique. Appl. Math. Comput. 218(13), 7193–7203 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2011.12.088Dorini, F., Cunha, M.: Statistical moments of the random linear transport equation. J. Comput. Phys. 227(19), 8541–8550 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2008.06.002Xu, Z., Tipireddy, R., Lin, G.: Analytical approximation and numerical studies of one-dimensional elliptic equation with random coefficients. Appl. Math. Model. 40(9–10), 5542–5559 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2015.12.04Mourad, K., Debbouche, A.: Complete controllability of nonlocal fractional stochastic differential evolution equations with Poisson jumps in Hilbert spaces. Int. J. Adv. Appl. Math. Mech. 3(1), 41–48 (2015)Casabán, M.C., Cortés, J.C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.V., Roselló, M.D., Villanueva, R.J.: A comprehensive probabilistic solution of random SIS-type epidemiological models using the random variable transformation technique. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 32, 199–210 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.08.009Casabán, M.C., Cortés, J.C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.V., Roselló, M.D., Villanueva, R.J.: Computing probabilistic solutions of the Bernoulli random differential equation. J. Comput. Appl. Math. 309, 396–407 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016//j.cam.2016.02.034Cortés, J.C., Santonja, F.J., Tarazona, A.C., Villanueva, R.J., Villanueva-Oller, J.: A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: the evolution of the attitude of the basque country population towards ETA as a case study. Appl. Math. Comput. 264, 13–20 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128Spanish INE: Encuesta sobre equipamiento y uso de tecnologías de información y comunicación en los hogares (Survey on equipment and use of the information technologies and communication in the household. http://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176741&menu=resultados&idp=1254735576692 . Accessed 20 June 2018Spanish INE: Indicadores demográficos básicos (Basic demographic indicators). http://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736177003&menu=resultados&idp=1254735573002 . Accessed 20 June 2018Christakis, N.A., Fowler, J.H.: Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives. Little, Brown and Company, Boston (2009)Brauer, F., Castillo-Chávez, C.: Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology. Springer, New York (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3516-1Norman, L., Kotz, S., Balakrishnan, N.: Continuous Univariate Distributions. Wiley, London (1994)Khemka, N., Jacob, C.: Exploratory toolkit for evolutionary and swarm-based optimization. Math. J. 11(3), 376–391 (2010). https://doi.org/10.3888/tmj.11.3-5Acedo, L., Burgos, C., Hidalgo, J.I., Sánchez-Alonso, V., Villanueva, R.J., Villanueva-Oller, J.: Calibrating a large network model describing the transmission dynamics of the human papillomavirus using a particle swarm optimization algorithm in a distributed computing environment. Int. J. High Perf. Comput. Appl. (2017). https://doi.org/10.1177/109434201769786

A soft computing decision support framework for e-learning

Tesi per compendi de publicacions.Supported by technological development and its impact on everyday activities, e-Learning and b-Learning (Blended Learning) have experienced rapid growth mainly in higher education and training. Its inherent ability to break both physical and cultural distances, to disseminate knowledge and decrease the costs of the teaching-learning process allows it to reach anywhere and anyone. The educational community is divided as to its role in the future. It is believed that by 2019 half of the world's higher education courses will be delivered through e-Learning. While supporters say that this will be the educational mode of the future, its detractors point out that it is a fashion, that there are huge rates of abandonment and that their massification and potential low quality, will cause its fall, assigning it a major role of accompanying traditional education. There are, however, two interrelated features where there seems to be consensus. On the one hand, the enormous amount of information and evidence that Learning Management Systems (LMS) generate during the e-Learning process and which is the basis of the part of the process that can be automated. In contrast, there is the fundamental role of e-tutors and etrainers who are guarantors of educational quality. These are continually overwhelmed by the need to provide timely and effective feedback to students, manage endless particular situations and casuistics that require decision making and process stored information. In this sense, the tools that e-Learning platforms currently provide to obtain reports and a certain level of follow-up are not sufficient or too adequate. It is in this point of convergence Information-Trainer, where the current developments of the LMS are centered and it is here where the proposed thesis tries to innovate. This research proposes and develops a platform focused on decision support in e-Learning environments. Using soft computing and data mining techniques, it extracts knowledge from the data produced and stored by e-Learning systems, allowing the classification, analysis and generalization of the extracted knowledge. It includes tools to identify models of students' learning behavior and, from them, predict their future performance and enable trainers to provide adequate feedback. Likewise, students can self-assess, avoid those ineffective behavior patterns, and obtain real clues about how to improve their performance in the course, through appropriate routes and strategies based on the behavioral model of successful students. The methodological basis of the mentioned functionalities is the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR), which is particularly useful in the modeling of dynamic systems. During the development of the research, the FIR methodology has been improved and empowered by the inclusion of several algorithms. First, an algorithm called CR-FIR, which allows determining the Causal Relevance that have the variables involved in the modeling of learning and assessment of students. In the present thesis, CR-FIR has been tested on a comprehensive set of classical test data, as well as real data sets, belonging to different areas of knowledge. Secondly, the detection of atypical behaviors in virtual campuses was approached using the Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) methodology, which is a probabilistic alternative to the well-known Self-Organizing Maps. GTM was used simultaneously for clustering, visualization and detection of atypical data. The core of the platform has been the development of an algorithm for extracting linguistic rules in a language understandable to educational experts, which helps them to obtain patterns of student learning behavior. In order to achieve this functionality, the LR-FIR algorithm (Extraction of Linguistic Rules in FIR) was designed and developed as an extension of FIR that allows both to characterize general behavior and to identify interesting patterns. In the case of the application of the platform to several real e-Learning courses, the results obtained demonstrate its feasibility and originality. The teachers' perception about the usability of the tool is very good, and they consider that it could be a valuable resource to mitigate the time requirements of the trainer that the e-Learning courses demand. The identification of student behavior models and prediction processes have been validated as to their usefulness by expert trainers. LR-FIR has been applied and evaluated in a wide set of real problems, not all of them in the educational field, obtaining good results. The structure of the platform makes it possible to assume that its use is potentially valuable in those domains where knowledge management plays a preponderant role, or where decision-making processes are a key element, e.g. ebusiness, e-marketing, customer management, to mention just a few. The Soft Computing tools used and developed in this research: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR and GTM, have been applied successfully in other real domains, such as music, medicine, weather behaviors, etc.Soportado por el desarrollo tecnológico y su impacto en las diferentes actividades cotidianas, el e-Learning (o aprendizaje electrónico) y el b-Learning (Blended Learning o aprendizaje mixto), han experimentado un crecimiento vertiginoso principalmente en la educación superior y la capacitación. Su habilidad inherente para romper distancias tanto físicas como culturales, para diseminar conocimiento y disminuir los costes del proceso enseñanza aprendizaje le permite llegar a cualquier sitio y a cualquier persona. La comunidad educativa se encuentra dividida en cuanto a su papel en el futuro. Se cree que para el año 2019 la mitad de los cursos de educación superior del mundo se impartirá a través del e-Learning. Mientras que los partidarios aseguran que ésta será la modalidad educativa del futuro, sus detractores señalan que es una moda, que hay enormes índices de abandono y que su masificación y potencial baja calidad, provocará su caída, reservándole un importante papel de acompañamiento a la educación tradicional. Hay, sin embargo, dos características interrelacionadas donde parece haber consenso. Por un lado, la enorme generación de información y evidencias que los sistemas de gestión del aprendizaje o LMS (Learning Management System) generan durante el proceso educativo electrónico y que son la base de la parte del proceso que se puede automatizar. En contraste, está el papel fundamental de los e-tutores y e-formadores que son los garantes de la calidad educativa. Éstos se ven continuamente desbordados por la necesidad de proporcionar retroalimentación oportuna y eficaz a los alumnos, gestionar un sin fin de situaciones particulares y casuísticas que requieren toma de decisiones y procesar la información almacenada. En este sentido, las herramientas que las plataformas de e-Learning proporcionan actualmente para obtener reportes y cierto nivel de seguimiento no son suficientes ni demasiado adecuadas. Es en este punto de convergencia Información-Formador, donde están centrados los actuales desarrollos de los LMS y es aquí donde la tesis que se propone pretende innovar. La presente investigación propone y desarrolla una plataforma enfocada al apoyo en la toma de decisiones en ambientes e-Learning. Utilizando técnicas de Soft Computing y de minería de datos, extrae conocimiento de los datos producidos y almacenados por los sistemas e-Learning permitiendo clasificar, analizar y generalizar el conocimiento extraído. Incluye herramientas para identificar modelos del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes y, a partir de ellos, predecir su desempeño futuro y permitir a los formadores proporcionar una retroalimentación adecuada. Así mismo, los estudiantes pueden autoevaluarse, evitar aquellos patrones de comportamiento poco efectivos y obtener pistas reales acerca de cómo mejorar su desempeño en el curso, mediante rutas y estrategias adecuadas a partir del modelo de comportamiento de los estudiantes exitosos. La base metodológica de las funcionalidades mencionadas es el Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR, por sus siglas en inglés), que es particularmente útil en el modelado de sistemas dinámicos. Durante el desarrollo de la investigación, la metodología FIR ha sido mejorada y potenciada mediante la inclusión de varios algoritmos. En primer lugar un algoritmo denominado CR-FIR, que permite determinar la Relevancia Causal que tienen las variables involucradas en el modelado del aprendizaje y la evaluación de los estudiantes. En la presente tesis, CR-FIR se ha probado en un conjunto amplio de datos de prueba clásicos, así como conjuntos de datos reales, pertenecientes a diferentes áreas de conocimiento. En segundo lugar, la detección de comportamientos atípicos en campus virtuales se abordó mediante el enfoque de Mapeo Topográfico Generativo (GTM), que es una alternativa probabilística a los bien conocidos Mapas Auto-organizativos. GTM se utilizó simultáneamente para agrupamiento, visualización y detección de datos atípicos. La parte medular de la plataforma ha sido el desarrollo de un algoritmo de extracción de reglas lingüísticas en un lenguaje entendible para los expertos educativos, que les ayude a obtener los patrones del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes. Para lograr dicha funcionalidad, se diseñó y desarrolló el algoritmo LR-FIR, (extracción de Reglas Lingüísticas en FIR, por sus siglas en inglés) como una extensión de FIR que permite tanto caracterizar el comportamiento general, como identificar patrones interesantes. En el caso de la aplicación de la plataforma a varios cursos e-Learning reales, los resultados obtenidos demuestran su factibilidad y originalidad. La percepción de los profesores acerca de la usabilidad de la herramienta es muy buena, y consideran que podría ser un valioso recurso para mitigar los requerimientos de tiempo del formador que los cursos e-Learning exigen. La identificación de los modelos de comportamiento de los estudiantes y los procesos de predicción han sido validados en cuanto a su utilidad por los formadores expertos. LR-FIR se ha aplicado y evaluado en un amplio conjunto de problemas reales, no todos ellos del ámbito educativo, obteniendo buenos resultados. La estructura de la plataforma permite suponer que su utilización es potencialmente valiosa en aquellos dominios donde la administración del conocimiento juegue un papel preponderante, o donde los procesos de toma de decisiones sean una pieza clave, por ejemplo, e-business, e-marketing, administración de clientes, por mencionar sólo algunos. Las herramientas de Soft Computing utilizadas y desarrolladas en esta investigación: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR y GTM, ha sido aplicadas con éxito en otros dominios reales, como música, medicina, comportamientos climáticos, etc.Postprint (published version

5th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2023)

Research methods in economics and social sciences are evolving with the increasing availability of Internet and Big Data sources of information. As these sources, methods, and applications become more interdisciplinary, the 5th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA) is a forum for researchers and practitioners to exchange ideas and advances on how emerging research methods and sources are applied to different fields of social sciences as well as to discuss current and future challenges.Martínez Torres, MDR.; Toral Marín, S. (2023). 5th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2023). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2023.2023.1700

Semantic discovery and reuse of business process patterns

Patterns currently play an important role in modern information systems (IS) development and their use has mainly been restricted to the design and implementation phases of the development lifecycle. Given the increasing significance of business modelling in IS development, patterns have the potential of providing a viable solution for promoting reusability of recurrent generalized models in the very early stages of development. As a statement of research-in-progress this paper focuses on business process patterns and proposes an initial methodological framework for the discovery and reuse of business process patterns within the IS development lifecycle. The framework borrows ideas from the domain engineering literature and proposes the use of semantics to drive both the discovery of patterns as well as their reuse

Business-driven IT Management

Business-driven IT management (BDIM) aims at ensuring successful alignment of business and IT through thorough understanding of the impact of IT on business results, and vice versa. In this dissertation, we review the state of the art of BDIM research and we position our intended contribution within the BDIM research space along the dimensions of decision support (as opposed of automation) and its application to IT service management processes. Within these research dimensions, we advance the state of the art by 1) contributing a decision theoretical framework for BDIM and 2) presenting two novel BDIM solutions in the IT service management space. First we present a simpler BDIM solution for prioritizing incidents, which can be used as a template for creating BDIM solutions in other IT service management processes. Then, we present a more comprehensive solution for optimizing the business-related performance of an IT support organization in dealing with incidents. Our decision theoretical framework and models for BDIM bring the concepts of business impact and risk to the fore, and are able to cope with both monetizable and intangible aspects of business impact. We start from a constructive and quantitative re-definition of some terms that are widely used in IT service management but for which was never given a rigorous decision: business impact, cost, benefit, risk and urgency. On top of that, we build a coherent methodology for linking IT-level metrics with business level metrics and make progress toward solving the business-IT alignment problem. Our methodology uses a constructive and quantitative definition of alignment with business objectives, taken as the likelihood – to the best of one’s knowledge – that such objectives will be met. That is used as the basis for building an engine for business impact calculation that is in fact an alignment computation engine. We show a sample BDIM solution for incident prioritization that is built using the decision theoretical framework, the methodology and the tools developed. We show how the sample BDIM solution could be used as a blueprint to build BDIM solutions for decision support in other IT service management processes, such as change management for example. However, the full power of BDIM can be best understood by studying the second fully fledged BDIM application that we present in this thesis. While incident management is used as a scenario for this second application as well, the main contribution that it brings about is really to provide a solution for business-driven organizational redesign to optimize the performance of an IT support organization. The solution is quite rich, and features components that orchestrate together advanced techniques in visualization, simulation, data mining and operations research. We show that the techniques we use - in particular the simulation of an IT organization enacting the incident management process – bring considerable benefits both when the performance is measured in terms of traditional IT metrics (mean time to resolution of incidents), and even more so when business impact metrics are brought into the picture, thereby providing a justification for investing time and effort in creating BDIM solutions. In terms of impact, the work presented in this thesis produced about twenty conference and journal publications, and resulted so far in three patent applications. Moreover this work has greatly influenced the design and implementation of Business Impact Optimization module of HP DecisionCenter™: a leading commercial software product for IT optimization, whose core has been re-designed to work as described here

Technological roadmap on AI planning and scheduling

At the beginning of the new century, Information Technologies had become basic and indispensable constituents of the production and preparation processes for all kinds of goods and services and with that are largely influencing both the working and private life of nearly every citizen. This development will continue and even further grow with the continually increasing use of the Internet in production, business, science, education, and everyday societal and private undertaking. Recent years have shown, however, that a dramatic enhancement of software capabilities is required, when aiming to continuously provide advanced and competitive products and services in all these fast developing sectors. It includes the development of intelligent systems – systems that are more autonomous, flexible, and robust than today’s conventional software. Intelligent Planning and Scheduling is a key enabling technology for intelligent systems. It has been developed and matured over the last three decades and has successfully been employed for a variety of applications in commerce, industry, education, medicine, public transport, defense, and government. This document reviews the state-of-the-art in key application and technical areas of Intelligent Planning and Scheduling. It identifies the most important research, development, and technology transfer efforts required in the coming 3 to 10 years and shows the way forward to meet these challenges in the short-, medium- and longer-term future. The roadmap has been developed under the regime of PLANET – the European Network of Excellence in AI Planning. This network, established by the European Commission in 1998, is the co-ordinating framework for research, development, and technology transfer in the field of Intelligent Planning and Scheduling in Europe. A large number of people have contributed to this document including the members of PLANET non- European international experts, and a number of independent expert peer reviewers. All of them are acknowledged in a separate section of this document. Intelligent Planning and Scheduling is a far-reaching technology. Accepting the challenges and progressing along the directions pointed out in this roadmap will enable a new generation of intelligent application systems in a wide variety of industrial, commercial, public, and private sectors