Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 stock markets: A VAR quantile analysis [WP]

We estimate multivariate quantile models to measure the responses of the six main Latin American (LA) stock markets to a shock in the United States (US) stock index. We compare the regional responses with those of seven developed markets. In general, we document weaker tailcodependences between the US and LA than those between the US and the mature markets. Our results suggest possible diversification strategies that could be exploited by investing in Latin America following a sizable shock to the US market. We also document asymmetrical responses to the shocks depending on the conditioning quantile at which they are calculated

Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 stock markets: A VAR quantile analysis

We estimate multivariate quantile models to measure the responses of the six main Latin American (LA) stock markets to a shock in the United States (US) stock index. We compare the regional responses with those of seven developed markets. In general, we document weaker tail-codependences between the US and LA than those between the US and the mature markets. Our results suggest possible diversification strategies that could be exploited by investing in Latin America following a sizable shock to the US market. We also document asymmetrical responses to the shocks depending on the conditioning quantile at which they are calculated. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Bayesian SAR model with stochastic volatility and multiple time-varying weights

A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in terms of time-varying spillover effects. The framework is applied to analyse the dynamics of international relationships among the G7 economies and their impact on stock market returns and volatilities. The findings underscore the substantial impact of cooperative interactions and highlight discernible disparities in network exposure across G7 nations, along with nuanced patterns in direct and indirect spillover effects

On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from the banking crisis of 2007-2010

This study examines the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate UEDCC-GARCH models are estimated producing evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from stock returns to exchange rate changes in the US and the UK, in the opposite direction in Canada, and bidirectional causality in the euro area and Switzerland. Furthermore, causality-in-variance from stock returns to exchange rate changes is found in the US and in the opposite direction in the euro area and Japan, whilst there is evidence of bidirectional feedback in Switzerland and Canada. The results of the time-varying correlations also show that the dependence between the two variables has increased during the recent financial crisis. These findings imply limited opportunities for investors to diversify their assets during this period

STOCK MARKET AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVER: EVIDENCE FROM VAR-GARCH ANALYSIS OF BRICS AND THE US

The thesis paper aims to investigate the volatility spillover effects from the stock market of the United States to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). In this study, I have employed VAR-GARCH framework on weekly return MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) index of respective stock markets to analyze the volatility transmission mechanism between stock market of the US and BRICS. The data sample is divided into one full period from January 2000 to December 2016 and three different sub-periods as pre-crisis period, financial crisis period and post-crisis period. The result of VAR (1) - GARCH (1, 1) model employed to examine the volatility spillover between the US and the BRICS markets shows that most of the BRICS nations are affected during the global financial crisis period rather than the normal period. The result indicates that the presence of shocks transmission and volatility spillover during the global financial crisis 2007-09 is significant compared to the normal period. The result suggests that volatility spillover between the US and Brazil is high as compared to rest of the BRICS nations. The market of Russia, South Africa and China are affected relatively less than Brazil by volatility of the US market in the normal period. The presence of minimal impact suggests that most of the BRICS stock market behaves independently during the normal period. Moreover, the result shows that Russia is the most independent market followed by China during normal period despite of being affected by the US during the financial crisis. The findings also reveal that all BRICS market has significant effects of own-lagged past return innovations (shocks) and past conditional volatilities on their current volatilities. In addition, the evidence of short term influence of South Africa on the US can be used for further study on stock market interdependence of both markets. Furthermore, my study on stock market volatility during the normal period as well as financial turmoil period provides useful information to researchers, financial market regulators as well as investors to know the behavior of emerging stock markets.fi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Global inflation

This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, the inflation rates of 22 OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70 percent of their variance. This large variance share that is associated with Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to 1980 and down thereafter) but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Second, we show that, in conformity to the prediction of New Keynesian open economy models, there is little spillover of inflationary shocks across countries. The comovement of inflation comes largely from common shocks. Global Inflation is a function of real developments at short horizons and monetary developments at longer horizons. Third, there is a robust "error correction mechanism" that brings national inflation rates back to Global Inflation. A simple model that accounts for this feature consistently beats the previous benchmarks used to forecast inflation 4 to 8 quarters ahead across samples and countries.Inflation (Finance)

Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects

This paper investigates the intraday price volatility process in four Australian wholesale electricity markets; namely New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. The data set consists of half-hourly electricity prices and demand volumes over the period 1 January 2002 to 1 June 2003. A range of processes including GARCH, Risk Metrics, normal Asymmetric Power ARCH or APARCH, Student APARCH and skewed Student APARCH are used to model the timevarying variance in prices and the inclusion of news arrival as proxied by the contemporaneous volume of demand, time-of-day, day-of-week and month-of-year effects as exogenous explanatory variables. The skewed Student APARCH model, which takes account of right skewed and fat tailed characteristics, produces the best results in three of the markets with the Student APARCH model performing better in the fourth. The results indicate significant innovation spillovers (ARCH effects)and volatility spillovers (GARCH effects) in the conditional standard deviation equation, even with market and calendar effects included. Intraday prices also exhibit significant asymmetric responses of volatility to the flow of information

Illiquidity, return and risk in G7 stock markets: interdependencies and spillovers

Trading activity in G7 stock markets reflects not only the macroeconomic and financial impact of these G7 economies in international economic growth, but also their financial interdependence. While this nexus of major stock market has been explored in terms of volatility and return spillovers, there has been no combined analysis of return, volatility and illiquidity spillovers. We study illiquidity spillovers because they are transmissions of trading activity and, thereof, transmissions of information and market sentiment. We discover Granger-causal associations between risk, return and illiquidity across G7 stock market and also within each stock market. Our findings bear significance for the regulation of international financial markets and also for international portfolio diversification

Unveiling commodities-financial markets intersections from a bibliometric perspective

The prominence of commodity markets within the domains of empirical finance and energy economics is well established, largely due to oil's importance and its relationship with other commodities and financial markets. In this study, we present a bibliometric examination of 437 journal articles addressing the phenomenon of commodity connectedness, spanning the period from 1994 to 2022. The research methods include a blend of qualitative and quantitative approaches, incorporating bibliometrics and content analysis. Based on the findings of the analysis, four primary research streams have been identified within the literature concerning commodity connectedness, namely (1) commodity interconnectivity, (2) the relationship between traditional commodities, renewable energy, and cryptocurrencies, (3) the relationship between oil and stock markets, and (4) studies utilizing copula methods to examine the interconnectivity between oil and financial markets. We proposed 15 future research questions for further investigation in the domain of commodity connectedness, including topics such as the impact of the post-COVID era and global uncertainties on commodity markets, how commodities can address the issue of climate change, the exponential growth of cryptocurrencies as a new financial asset, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict on commodity and financial markets