Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

CARPe Posterum: A Convolutional Approach for Real-time Pedestrian Path Prediction

Pedestrian path prediction is an essential topic in computer vision and video understanding. Having insight into the movement of pedestrians is crucial for ensuring safe operation in a variety of applications including autonomous vehicles, social robots, and environmental monitoring. Current works in this area utilize complex generative or recurrent methods to capture many possible futures. However, despite the inherent real-time nature of predicting future paths, little work has been done to explore accurate and computationally efficient approaches for this task. To this end, we propose a convolutional approach for real-time pedestrian path prediction, CARPe. It utilizes a variation of Graph Isomorphism Networks in combination with an agile convolutional neural network design to form a fast and accurate path prediction approach. Notable results in both inference speed and prediction accuracy are achieved, improving FPS considerably in comparison to current state-of-the-art methods while delivering competitive accuracy on well-known path prediction datasets.Comment: AAAI-21 Camera Read

From individual behaviour to an evaluation of the collective evolution of crowds along footbridges

This paper proposes a crowd dynamic macroscopic model grounded on microscopic phenomenological observations which are upscaled by means of a formal mathematical procedure. The actual applicability of the model to real world problems is tested by considering the pedestrian traffic along footbridges, of interest for Structural and Transportation Engineering. The genuinely macroscopic quantitative description of the crowd flow directly matches the engineering need of bulk results. However, three issues beyond the sole modelling are of primary importance: the pedestrian inflow conditions, the numerical approximation of the equations for non trivial footbridge geometries, and the calibration of the free parameters of the model on the basis of in situ measurements currently available. These issues are discussed and a solution strategy is proposed.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures in J. Engrg. Math., 201

Analysis-by-synthesis: Pedestrian tracking with crowd simulation models in a multi-camera video network

For tracking systems consisting of multiple cameras with overlapping field-of-views, homography-based approaches are widely adopted to significantly reduce occlusions among pedestrians by sharing information among multiple views. However, in these approaches, the usage of information under real-world coordinates is only at a preliminary level. Therefore, in this paper, a multi-camera tracking system with integrated crowd simulation is proposed in order to explore the possibility to make homography information more helpful. Two crowd simulators with different simulation strategies are used to investigate the influence of the simulation strategy on the final tracking performance. The performance is evaluated by multiple object tracking precision and accuracy (MOTP and MOTA) metrics, for all the camera views and the results obtained under real-world coordinates. The experimental results demonstrate that crowd simulators boost the tracking performance significantly, especially for crowded scenes with higher density. In addition, a more realistic simulation strategy helps to further improve the overall tracking result

Modeling Cooperative Navigation in Dense Human Crowds

For robots to be a part of our daily life, they need to be able to navigate among crowds not only safely but also in a socially compliant fashion. This is a challenging problem because humans tend to navigate by implicitly cooperating with one another to avoid collisions, while heading toward their respective destinations. Previous approaches have used hand-crafted functions based on proximity to model human-human and human-robot interactions. However, these approaches can only model simple interactions and fail to generalize for complex crowded settings. In this paper, we develop an approach that models the joint distribution over future trajectories of all interacting agents in the crowd, through a local interaction model that we train using real human trajectory data. The interaction model infers the velocity of each agent based on the spatial orientation of other agents in his vicinity. During prediction, our approach infers the goal of the agent from its past trajectory and uses the learned model to predict its future trajectory. We demonstrate the performance of our method against a state-of-the-art approach on a public dataset and show that our model outperforms when predicting future trajectories for longer horizons.Comment: Accepted at ICRA 201

Forecasting People Trajectories and Head Poses by Jointly Reasoning on Tracklets and Vislets

In this work, we explore the correlation between people trajectories and their head orientations. We argue that people trajectory and head pose forecasting can be modelled as a joint problem. Recent approaches on trajectory forecasting leverage short-term trajectories (aka tracklets) of pedestrians to predict their future paths. In addition, sociological cues, such as expected destination or pedestrian interaction, are often combined with tracklets. In this paper, we propose MiXing-LSTM (MX-LSTM) to capture the interplay between positions and head orientations (vislets) thanks to a joint unconstrained optimization of full covariance matrices during the LSTM backpropagation. We additionally exploit the head orientations as a proxy for the visual attention, when modeling social interactions. MX-LSTM predicts future pedestrians location and head pose, increasing the standard capabilities of the current approaches on long-term trajectory forecasting. Compared to the state-of-the-art, our approach shows better performances on an extensive set of public benchmarks. MX-LSTM is particularly effective when people move slowly, i.e. the most challenging scenario for all other models. The proposed approach also allows for accurate predictions on a longer time horizon.Comment: Accepted at IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON PATTERN ANALYSIS AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE 2019. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1805.0065