Data-driven Customer Behaviour Model Generation for Agent Based Exploration

Customer retention is a critical concern for most mobile network operators because of the increasing competition in the mobile services sector. This concern has driven companies to exploit data as an avenue to better understand customer needs. Data mining techniques such as clustering and classification have been adopted to understand customer retention in the mobile services industry. However, the effectiveness of these techniques is debatable due to the increasing complexity of the mobile market itself. This study proposes an application of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) as a novel approach to understanding customer retention. A dataset provided by a mobile network operator is utilized to automate decision trees and agent based models. The most popular churn modeling techniques were adopted in order to automate the development of models, from decision trees, and subsequently explore customer churn scenarios. ABMS is used to understand the behavior of customers and detect possible reasons why customers churned or stayed with their respective mobile network operators. Data analysis is able to identify that location and choice of mobile devices were determinants for the decision to churn or stay with their mobile network operator - with word of mouth as an important factor. Importantly, agent based simulation is able to explore further the determinants in the wider marketplace

Towards Data-driven Simulation Modeling for Mobile Agent-based Systems

Simulation modeling provides insight into how dynamic systems work. Current simulation modeling approaches are primarily knowledge-driven, which involves a process of converting expert knowledge into models and simulating them to understand more about the system. Knowledge-driven models are useful for exploring the dynamics of systems, but are handcrafted which means that they are expensive to develop and reflect the bias and limited knowledge of their creators. To address limitations of knowledge-driven simulation modeling, this dissertation develops a framework towards data-driven simulation modeling that discovers simulation models in an automated way based on data or behavior patterns extracted from systems under study. By using data, simulation models can be discovered automatically and with less bias than through knowledge-driven methods. Additionally, multiple models can be discovered that replicate the desired behavior. Each of these models can be thought of as a hypothesis about how the real system generates the observed behavior. This framework was developed based on the application of mobile agent-based systems. The developed framework is composed of three components: 1) model space specification; 2) search method; and 3) framework measurement metrics. The model space specification provides a formal specification for the general model structure from which various models can be generated. The search method is used to efficiently search the model space for candidate models that exhibit desired behavior. The five framework measurement metrics: flexibility, comprehensibility, controllability, compossability, and robustness, are developed to evaluate the overall framework. Furthermore, to incorporate knowledge into the data-driven simulation modeling framework, a method was developed that uses System Entity Structures (SESs) to specify incomplete knowledge to be used by the model search process. This is significant because knowledge-driven modeling requires a complete understanding of a system before it can be modeled, whereas the framework can find a model with incomplete knowledge. The developed framework has been applied to mobile agent-based systems and the results demonstrate that it is possible to discover a variety of interesting models using the framework

Flexible Virtual Structure Consideration in Dynamic Modeling of Mobile Robots Formation

International audienceIn cooperative mobile robotics, we look for formation keeping and maintenance of a geometric configuration during movement. As a solution to these problems, the concept of a virtual structure is considered. Based on this idea, we have developed an efficient flexible virtual structure, describing the dynamic model of n vehicles in formation and where the whole formation is kept dependant. Notes that, for 2D and 3D space navigation, only a rigid virtual structure was proposed in the literature. Further, the problem was limited to a kinematic behavior of the structure. Hence, the flexible virtual structure in dynamic modeling of mobile robots formation presented in this paper, gives more capabilities to the formation to avoid obstacles in hostile environment while keeping formation and avoiding inter‐agent collision

A Formal Framework for Modeling Trust and Reputation in Collective Adaptive Systems

Trust and reputation models for distributed, collaborative systems have been studied and applied in several domains, in order to stimulate cooperation while preventing selfish and malicious behaviors. Nonetheless, such models have received less attention in the process of specifying and analyzing formally the functionalities of the systems mentioned above. The objective of this paper is to define a process algebraic framework for the modeling of systems that use (i) trust and reputation to govern the interactions among nodes, and (ii) communication models characterized by a high level of adaptiveness and flexibility. Hence, we propose a formalism for verifying, through model checking techniques, the robustness of these systems with respect to the typical attacks conducted against webs of trust.Comment: In Proceedings FORECAST 2016, arXiv:1607.0200

Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale