15,461 research outputs found
Some Remarks about the Complexity of Epidemics Management
Recent outbreaks of Ebola, H1N1 and other infectious diseases have shown that
the assumptions underlying the established theory of epidemics management are
too idealistic. For an improvement of procedures and organizations involved in
fighting epidemics, extended models of epidemics management are required. The
necessary extensions consist in a representation of the management loop and the
potential frictions influencing the loop. The effects of the non-deterministic
frictions can be taken into account by including the measures of robustness and
risk in the assessment of management options. Thus, besides of the increased
structural complexity resulting from the model extensions, the computational
complexity of the task of epidemics management - interpreted as an optimization
problem - is increased as well. This is a serious obstacle for analyzing the
model and may require an additional pre-processing enabling a simplification of
the analysis process. The paper closes with an outlook discussing some
forthcoming problems
Hybrid Epidemics - A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker
Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is
unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing,
neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that
combines three modes of spreading, local, neighbourhood and global to capture
the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred
directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conifcker
epidemic. The model is then used to explore the trade-off between spreading
modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the
Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the
different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics.
Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most
effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population.
When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to
current internet security protocols
A Method for Reducing the Severity of Epidemics by Allocating Vaccines According to Centrality
One long-standing question in epidemiological research is how best to
allocate limited amounts of vaccine or similar preventative measures in order
to minimize the severity of an epidemic. Much of the literature on the problem
of vaccine allocation has focused on influenza epidemics and used mathematical
models of epidemic spread to determine the effectiveness of proposed methods.
Our work applies computational models of epidemics to the problem of
geographically allocating a limited number of vaccines within several Texas
counties. We developed a graph-based, stochastic model for epidemics that is
based on the SEIR model, and tested vaccine allocation methods based on
multiple centrality measures. This approach provides an alternative method for
addressing the vaccine allocation problem, which can be combined with more
conventional approaches to yield more effective epidemic suppression
strategies. We found that allocation methods based on in-degree and inverse
betweenness centralities tended to be the most effective at containing
epidemics.Comment: 10 pages, accepted to ACM BCB 201
Recommended from our members
Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone.
Dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) compartmental models provide a tool for predicting the size and duration of both unfettered and managed outbreaks-the latter in the context of interventions such as case detection, patient isolation, vaccination and treatment. The reliability of this tool depends on the validity of key assumptions that include homogeneity of individuals and spatio-temporal homogeneity. Although the SEIR compartmental framework can easily be extended to include demographic (e.g. age) and additional disease (e.g. healthcare workers) classes, dependence of transmission rates on time, and metapopulation structure, fitting such extended models is hampered by both a proliferation of free parameters and insufficient or inappropriate data. This raises the question of how effective a tool the basic SEIR framework may actually be. We go some way here to answering this question in the context of the 2014-2015 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa by comparing fits of an SEIR time-dependent transmission model to both country- and district-level weekly incidence data. Our novel approach in estimating the effective-size-of-the-populations-at-risk ( Neff) and initial number of exposed individuals ( E0) at both district and country levels, as well as the transmission function parameters, including a time-to-halving-the-force-of-infection ( tf/2) parameter, provides new insights into this Ebola outbreak. It reveals that the estimate R0 ≈ 1.7 from country-level data appears to seriously underestimate R0 ≈ 3.3 - 4.3 obtained from more spatially homogeneous district-level data. Country-level data also overestimate tf/2 ≈ 22 weeks, compared with 8-10 weeks from district-level data. Additionally, estimates for the duration of individual infectiousness is around two weeks from spatially inhomogeneous country-level data compared with 2.4-4.5 weeks from spatially more homogeneous district-level data, which estimates are rather high compared with most values reported in the literature. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'
INDEMICS: An Interactive High-Performance Computing Framework for Data Intensive Epidemic Modeling
We describe the design and prototype implementation of Indemics (_Interactive; Epi_demic; _Simulation;)—a modeling environment utilizing high-performance computing technologies for supporting complex epidemic simulations. Indemics can support policy analysts and epidemiologists interested in planning and control of pandemics. Indemics goes beyond traditional epidemic simulations by providing a simple and powerful way to represent and analyze policy-based as well as individual-based adaptive interventions. Users can also stop the simulation at any point, assess the state of the simulated system, and add additional interventions. Indemics is available to end-users via a web-based interface.
Detailed performance analysis shows that Indemics greatly enhances the capability and productivity of simulating complex intervention strategies with a marginal decrease in performance. We also demonstrate how Indemics was applied in some real case studies where complex interventions were implemented
- …