Impact of spatial resolution on air quality simulation: A case study in a highly industrialized area in Shanghai, China

AbstractThe air pollution contribution from highly industrialized areas has been a prominent issue in regional air quality control. Particular emphasis on local industrial emissions is necessary to understand the complexity of air pollution over highly industrialized areas. Baoshan District, one of the most important industrialized areas in China and the most competitive steel and iron production base worldwide, was selected as the study area in this work. The WRF/CMAQ modeling system with local emission profile was applied to study the impact of spatial resolution on air quality modeling. The simulation results for SO2, NO, NO2, CO and PM10 at both 3–km and 1–km resolutions were verified by ground level observations. The results showed that the allocation of the emission inventory is improved by using finer resolution grids, which allow the consideration of detailed emission features. The influence of model resolution was more significant for air quality than for meteorology simulation. The relative errors using the finer resolution method ranged from –25% to 59%, an obvious improvement over the error value of 26%–245% obtained using the coarse resolution method. The changing tendencies of air pollutants in urban and rural areas were generally better modeled at finer than coarser resolution. However, the detailed variation in the most heavily polluted areas was still difficult to capture, and the model performance was not evidently improved by the use of a fine resolution. To improve the model performance over highly industrialized areas for future studies, combining the dynamic emission profile with detailed industrial activities and accurate local meteorological fields is suggested

Simulating infrastructure networks in the Yangtze River Delta (China) using generative urban network models

This paper explores the urban-geographical potential of simulation approaches combining spatial and topological processes. Drawing on Vértes et al.'s (2012) economical clustering model, we propose a generative network model integrating factors captured in traditional spatial models (e.g., gravity models) and more recently developed topological models (e.g., actor-oriented stochastic models) into a single framework. In our urban network-implementation of the generative network model, it is assumed that the emergence of inter-city linkages can be approximated through probabilistic processes that speak to a series of contradictory forces. Our exploratory study focuses on the outline of the infrastructure networks connecting prefecture-level cities in the highly urbanized Yangtze River Delta (China). Possible hampering factors in the emergence of these networks include distance and administrative boundaries, while stimulating factors include a measure of city size (population, gross domestic product) and a topological rule stating that the formation of connections between cities sharing nearest neighbors is more likely (i.e., a transitive effect). Based on our results, two wider implications of our research are discussed: (1) it confirms the potential of the proposed method in urban network simulation in that the inclusion of a topological factor alongside geographical factors generates an urban network that better approximates the observed network; (2) it allows exploring the differential extent to which driving forces influence the structure of different urban networks. For instance, in the Yangtze River Delta, transitivity plays a less important role in the Internet-network formation; GDP and boundaries more strongly affect the rail network; and distance decay effects play a more prominent role in the road network

The countryside in urbanized Flanders: towards a flexible definition for a dynamic policy

The countryside, the rural area, the open space, … many definitions are used for rural Flanders. Everyone makes its own interpretation of the countryside, considering it as a place for living, working or recreating. The countryside is more than just a geographical area: it is an aggregate of physical, social, economic and cultural functions, strongly interrelated with each other. According to international and European definitions of rural areas there would be almost no rural area in Flanders. These international definitions are all developed to be used for analysis and policy within their specific context. They are not really applicable to Flanders because of the historical specificity of its spatial structure. Flanders is characterized by a giant urbanization pressure on its countryside while internationally rural depopulation is a point of interest. To date, for every single rural policy initiative – like the implementation of the European Rural Development Policy – Flanders used a specifically adapted definition, based on existing data or previously made delineations. To overcome this oversupply of definitions and delineations, the Flemish government funded a research project to obtain a clear and flexible definition of the Flemish countryside and a dynamic method to support Flemish rural policy aims. First, an analysis of the currently used definitions of the countryside in Flanders was made. It is clear that, depending on the perspective or the policy context, another definition of the countryside comes into view. The comparative study showed that, according to the used criteria, the area percentage of Flanders that is rural, varies between 9 and 93 per cent. Second, dynamic sets of criteria were developed, facilitating a flexible definition of the countryside, according to the policy aims concerned. This research part was focused on 6 policy themes, like ‘construction, maintenance and management of local (transport) infrastructures’ and ‘provision of (minimum) services (education, culture, health care, …)’. For each theme a dynamic set of criteria or indicators was constructed. These indicators make it possible to show where a policy theme manifests itself and/or where policy interventions are possible or needed. In this way every set of criteria makes up a new definition of rural Flanders. This method is dynamic; new data or insights can easily be incorporated and new criteria sets can be developed if other policy aims come into view. The developed method can contribute to a more region-oriented and theme-specific rural policy and funding mechanism

Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China

We propose that the emergent phenomenon know as ?desakota?, the rapidurbanization of densely populated rural populations in the newlydeveloped world, particularly China, can be simulated using agent-basedmodels which combine both local and global features. We argue thatdeskota represents a surprising and unusual form of urbanization wellmatchedto processes of land development that are driven from the bottomup but moderated by the higher-level macro economy. We develop asimple logic which links local household reform to global urban reform,translating these ideas into a model structure which reflects these twoscales. Our model first determines the rate of growth of different spatialaggregates using linear statistical analysis. It then allocates this growth tothe local level using developer agents who determine the transformation ormutation of rural households to urban pursuits based on local land costs,accessibilities, and growth management practices. The model is applied todesakota development in the Suzhou region between 1990 and 2000. Weshow how the global rates of change predicted at the township level in theWuxian City region surrounding Suzhou are tempered by localtransformations of rural to urban land uses which we predict using cellularautomata rules. The model, which is implemented in the RePast 3software, is validated using a blend of data taken from remote sensing andgovernment statistical sources. It represents an example of generativesocial science that fuses plausible behavior with formalized logics matchedagainst empirical evidence, essential in showing how novel patterns ofurbanization such as desakota emerge

Impacts of different urban canopy schemes in WRF/Chem on regional climate and air quality in Yangtze River Delta, China

AbstractYangtze River Delta (YRD) region has experienced a remarkable urbanization during the past 30years, and regional climate change and air pollution are becoming more and more evident due to urbanization. Impacts of urban canopy on regional climate and air quality in dry- and wet-season are investigated in this paper, utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model. Four regimes of urban canopy schemes with updated USGS land-use data in actual state of 2004 base on MODIS observations are examined: (1) SLAB scheme that does not consider urban canopy parameters (the control experiment in this paper); (2) a single-layer urban model with a fixed diurnal profile for anthropogenic heat (UCM); (3) multilayer urban canopy model (BEP-Building effect parameterization); (4) multilayer urban models with a building energy model including anthropogenic heat due to air conditioning (BEP+BEM). Results show that, compared with observations, the best 2-m temperature estimates with minimum bias are obtained with SLAB and BEP+BEM schemes, while the best 10-m wind speed predictions are obtained with BEP and BEP+BEM scheme. For PM10 and ozone predictions, BEP+BEM scheme predicted PM10 well during January, while the best estimate of PM10 is obtained with UCM scheme during July, BEP+BEM and SLAB schemes best estimated ozone concentrations for both the two months. Spatial differences of meteorological factors between canopy schemes and control scheme show that compared with SLAB scheme, BEP and BEP+BEM schemes cause an increase of temperature with differences of 0.5°C and 0.3°C, respectively, UCM scheme simulates lower temperature with decrease of 0.7°C during January. In July, all the canopy experiments calculates lower air temperature with reduction of 0.5°C–1.6°C. All the canopy experiments compute lower 10-m wind speed for both January and July. Decreases were 0.7m/s (0.8m/s) with UCM, 1.7m/s (2.6m/s) with BEP, and 1.8m/s (2.3m/s) with BEP+BEM schemes in January (July), respectively. For chemical field distributions, results show that, compared with SLAB scheme, UCM scheme calculates higher PM10 concentration in both January and July, with the differences of 22.3% (or 24.4μg/m3) in January, and 31.4% (or 17.4μg/m3) in July, respectively. As large as 32.7% (or 18.3 μg/m3) of PM10 increase is found over Hangzhou city during July. While 18.6% (or 22.1 μg/m3) and 16.7% (or 24.6 μg/m3) of PM10 decreases are fund in BEP and BEP+BEM schemes during January. Compared with control experiment during January, 6.5% (or 2.6ppb) to 10.4% (4.2ppb) increases of ozone are computed over mage-cities by canopy experiments. All the three canopy schemes predict lower ozone concentrations and as large as 30.2% (or 11.2ppb) decrease is obtained with UCM scheme, and 16.5% (6.2ppb) decrease with BEP scheme during July. The SLAB scheme is suitable for real-time weather forecast while multiple urban canopy scheme is necessary when quantify the urbanization impacts on regional climate

Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives

August 2013Urban growth and land use change models have the potential to become important tools for urban spatial planning and management. Before embarking on any modelling, however, GCRO felt it was important to take note of, and critically assess lessons to be learnt from international experience and scholarship on spatial modelling, as well as a number of South African experiments that model future urban development. In 2012, GCRO initiated preliminary research into current international and South African modelling trends through a desktop study and telephone, email and personal interviews. This Occasional paper sets out to investigate what urban spatial change modelling research is currently being undertaken internationally and within South Africa. At the international level, urban modelling research since 2000 is reviewed according to five main categories: land use transportation (LUT), cellular automata, urban system dynamics, agent-based models (ABMs) and spatial economics/econometric models (SE/EMs). Within South Africa, urban modelling initiatives are categorised differently and include a broader range of urban modelling techniques. Typologies used include: provincial government modelling initiatives in Gauteng; municipal government modelling initiatives; other government-funded modelling research; and academic modelling research. The various modelling initiatives described are by no means a comprehensive review of all urban spatial change modelling projects in South Africa, but provide a broad indication of the types of urban spatial change modelling underway. Importantly, the models may form the basis for more accurate and sophisticated urban modelling projects in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key urban modelling opportunities and challenges for short- to long-term planning in the GCR and South Africa.Written by Chris Wray, Josephine Musango and Kavesha Damon (GCRO) Koech Cheruiyot (NRF:SARChI chair in Development Planning and Modelling at Wits

Modelling and simulating land development processes in Shanghai

This thesis groups four papers to investigate the growth and evolution mechanisms behind urban land use change through multiple computer-based modelling and simulation approaches. The first paper theorizes land development in Shanghai into five modes and then delineates the location and estimates the magnitude of each of the land development modes in Shanghai. This paper lays down the groundwork for the following papers on land use change modelling and simulation in Shanghai. The second paper develops the Population-Driven Urban Land Development (PDULD) to simulate the land development and population dynamics of Jiading New City, one of the suburban districts in Shanghai. The third paper develops the Location-based Firm Profit (LbFP) model to delineate how urban land use growth may lead to the spatial structural transformation of industries. The fourth paper then furthers the industrial land use study and proposes the Industrial and Residential Land Use Competition Model (IRLUCM) to simulate the dynamic spatial transformation of industrial land use in Shanghai.ATIC, TECTERRA, AMETHYST, University of Lethbridge, Mitac

How suitable are current approaches to simulate flood risk under future urbanization trends?

Flood risk in urban areas will increase massively under future urbanization and climate change. Urban flood risk models have been increasingly applied to assess impacts of urbanization on flood risk. For this purpose, different methodological approaches have been developed in order to reflect the complexity and dynamics of urban growth. To assess the state-of-the art in the application of flood risk models under urbanization scenarios, we conducted a structured literature review and systematically analyzed 93 publications with 141 case studies. Our review shows that hydrological and hydrodynamic flood models are the most commonly used approaches to simulate flood risk. Future urbanization is mostly considered as urban sprawl through the adjustment of land use maps and roughness parameters. A low number of approaches additionally consider transitions of urban structures and densification processes in their urbanization scenarios. High-resolution physically based flood models have been advanced and are well suited for describing quantifiable processes in data-rich contexts. In regions with limited data, we argue that reducing the level of detail in flood models and increasing the level of detail in urbanization patterns should be considered to improve the quality of flood risk projections under future urbanization. For this purpose, we also call for the development of integrative model structures such as causal network models that have greater explanatory power and enable the processing of qualitative data

Urbanization, land use, and sustainable development in China

pre-printChina's economic reforms and unprecedented growth have generated many fascinating issues for scholarly research. An understanding of urbanization and land use change in China is required for appropriate strategies and policies to facilitate future sustainable development. This paper reviews the literature on urbanization, land use and sustainable development in China with a focus on land use change. We argue that land use and environmental research are embedded in the complex economic-geographical processes and multiple trajectories of development and urbanization in China. This paper highlights the important role of space-time modeling in a multi-disciplinary setting in the study of urbanization, land use and sustainable development. It also points out potential areas for future research