Development of a Safety Performance Decision-Making Tool for Flight Training Organizations

The purpose of the research was to create and validate a safety performance decision-making tool to transform a reactive safety model into a predictive, decision-making tool, specific to flight training organizations, to increase safety and aid in operational decision-making. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the study conducted simulation runs based on operational ranges to simulate the operating conditions with varying levels of controllable resources in terms of personnel (Aviation Maintenance Technicians and Instructor Pilots) and expenditures (active flight students and available aircraft). Four What-if Scenarios were conducted by manipulating the controllable inputs. Changes to the controllable inputs are reflected by variations to the outputs demonstrating the utility and potential for the safety performance decision-making tool. The outputs could be utilized by safety personnel and administrators to make more informed safety-related decisions without expending unnecessary resources

Ключевые технологии связи для поддержки систем управления движением гражданских беспилотных летательных аппаратов (обзор зарубежной литературы)

Not less than one hundred thousand Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are expected to perform flights simultaneously in Russia by 2035. The UAV fleet capacity triggers the development of the systems for informational support, operating control and management of UAV flights (Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) systems) similar to that one already operating in manned aviation. The challenges arising in the sphere of civil aviation cannot be solved without wireless communication. The goals of this article are as follows: 1) familiarization of communication experts with the latest scientific developments of unmanned aerial technologies 2) description of the telecommunication-related problems of extensive systems of UAV control encountered by development engineers. In this article a schematic architecture and main functions of UTM systems are described as well as the examples of their implementation. Special emphasis is put on enhancing flight safety by means of a rational choice of communication technologies to manage conflicts (Conflict Management) known as "collision avoidance". The article analyzes the application of a wide range of wireless technologies ranging from Wi-Fi and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) to 5G cellular networks as well as cell-free networks contributing to the development of 6G communication networks. As a result of the analysis, a list of promising research trends at the intersection of the fields of wireless communication and UAVs for civil application is made.Ожидается, что к 2035 году в Российском небе будут одновременно находиться не менее ста тысяч беспилотных летательных аппаратов (БЛА). Такая численность флота БЛА делает необходимым создание систем информационной поддержки, контроля и управления полетами БЛА (англ. Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management – UTM), подобных той, что уже существует для пилотной авиации. Проблемы, возникающие перед авиационным сообществом, не могут быть решены без помощи беспроводной связи. Целями данной статьи являются ознакомление специалистов связи с последними достижениями гражданской беспилотной авиации и описание проблем телекоммуникационного характера, стоящих перед разработчиками масштабных систем управления БЛА. Представлены архитектура и главные функции систем UTM, а также примеры их практической реализации. Особое внимание уделено повышению безопасности полетов путем рационального выбора технологий связи для осуществления управления конфликтными ситуациями (также известного как «избежание столкновений»). Проанализирована практичность применения широкого спектра беспроводных технологий: от Wi-Fi и автоматического зависимого наблюдения радиовещательного типа (АЗН-В) до сотовых сетей пятого поколения 5G, а также бессотовых сетей (англ. cell-free), являющихся кандидатами для создания сетей связи шестого поколения 6G. В результате проведенного анализа сформирован список перспективных направлений исследований на стыке областей беспроводной связи и гражданской беспилотной авиации

Development of a Safety Performance Decision-Making Tool for Flight Training Organization

Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 141 flight training organizations are actively pursuing ways to increase operational safety by introducing advanced risk assessment and decision-making techniques. The purpose of the dissertation was to create and validate a safety performance decision-making tool to transform a reactive safety model into a predictive, safety performance decision-making tool, specific to large, collegiate Title 14 CFR Part 141 flight training organizations, to increase safety and aid in operational decision-making. The validated safety decision-making tool uses what-if scenarios to assess how changes to the controllable input variables impact the overall level of operational risk within an organization’s flight department. Utilizing SPIs determined to be most indicative of flight risk within large, collegiate flight training organizations, a predictive, safety performance decision-making tool was developed utilizing Monte Carlo simulation. In a high-risk system beset with uncertainty, applying Monte Carlo simulation addresses the need to accommodate uncontrollable inputs into the model in a manner that enables the model to produce meaningful output data. This research utilizes the validated equations drawn from the non-statistical model developed by Anderson, Aguiar, Truong, Friend, Williams, & Dickson (2020) for the mathematical inputs driving the computational nodes, including the SPIs, as the foundation to develop the safety performance decision-making tool. The probability distributions of the uncontrollable inputs were drawn from a sample of operational data from September 2017 to September 2019 from a large, collegiate 14 CFR Part 141 flight training organization in the southeastern United States. The study conducted simulation runs based on true operational ranges to simulate the operating conditions possible within large, collegiate CFR Part 141 flight training organizations with varying levels of controllable resources including personnel (Aviation Maintenance Technicians and Instructor Pilots) and expenditures (active flight students and available aircraft). The study compared the output from three different Verification Scenarios—each using a unique seed value to ensure a different sample of random numbers for the uncontrollable inputs. ANOVA testing indicated no significant differences appeared among the three different groups, indicating the results are statistically reliable. Four What-if Scenarios were conducted by manipulating the controllable inputs. Mean probability was the key output and represents the forecasted level of operational risk on a standardized 0-5 risk scale for the Flight Score, Maintenance Score, Damage and Related Impact, and an Overall Risk Score. Results indicate the lowest Overall Risk Score occurred when the level of personnel was high yet expenditures were moderate. Changes to the controllable inputs are reflected by variations to the outputs demonstrating the utility and potential for the safety performance decision-making tool. The outputs could be utilized by safety personnel and administrators to make more informed safety-related decisions without expending unnecessary resources. The model could be adapted for use in any CFR Part 141 flight training organization with data collection capabilities and an SMS by modifying the input value probability distributions to reflect the operating conditions of the selected 14 CFR Part 141 flight training organization