Outflow Dynamics in Modeling Oligopoly Markets: The Case of the Mobile Telecommunications Market in Poland

In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation, where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way the two forces influencing consumer choice -- (local) social interactions and (global) advertising -- interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the Mean Field Approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models to data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed -- below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level $p \in (0.3,0.4)$. This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment

Controllability of Social Networks and the Strategic Use of Random Information

This work is aimed at studying realistic social control strategies for social networks based on the introduction of random information into the state of selected driver agents. Deliberately exposing selected agents to random information is a technique already experimented in recommender systems or search engines, and represents one of the few options for influencing the behavior of a social context that could be accepted as ethical, could be fully disclosed to members, and does not involve the use of force or of deception. Our research is based on a model of knowledge diffusion applied to a time-varying adaptive network, and considers two well-known strategies for influencing social contexts. One is the selection of few influencers for manipulating their actions in order to drive the whole network to a certain behavior; the other, instead, drives the network behavior acting on the state of a large subset of ordinary, scarcely influencing users. The two approaches have been studied in terms of network and diffusion effects. The network effect is analyzed through the changes induced on network average degree and clustering coefficient, while the diffusion effect is based on two ad-hoc metrics defined to measure the degree of knowledge diffusion and skill level, as well as the polarization of agent interests. The results, obtained through simulations on synthetic networks, show a rich dynamics and strong effects on the communication structure and on the distribution of knowledge and skills, supporting our hypothesis that the strategic use of random information could represent a realistic approach to social network controllability, and that with both strategies, in principle, the control effect could be remarkable

Advertising and Word-of-Mouth Effects on Pre-launch Consumer Interest and Initial Sales of Experience Products

This study examines how consumers' interest in a new experience product develops as a result of advertising and word-of-mouth activities during the pre-launch period. The empirical settings are the U.S. motion picture and video game industries. The focal variables include weekly ad spend, blog volume, online search volume during pre-launch periods, opening-week sales, and product characteristics. We treat pre-launch search volume of keywords as a measure of pre-launch consumer interest in the related product. To identify probable persistent effects among the pre-launch time-series variables, we apply a vector autoregressive modeling approach. We find that blog postings have permanent, trend-setting effects on pre-launch consumer interest in a new product, while advertising has only temporary effects. In the U.S. motion picture industry, the four-week cumulative elasticity of pre-launch consumer interest is 0.187 to advertising and 0.635 to blog postings. In the U.S. video game industry, the elasticities are 0.093 and 1.306, respectively. We also find long-run co-evolution between blog and search volume, which suggests that consumers' interest in the upcoming product cannot grow without bounds for a given level of blog volume

Indifferents as an interface between Contra and Pro

In most sociophysical simulations on public opinion, only two opinions are allowed: Pro and Contra. However, in all political elections many people do not vote. Here we analyse two models of dynamics of public opinion, taking into account Indifferent voters: {\it i)} the Sznajd model with symmetry Pro-Contra, {\it ii)} the outflow one move voter model, where Contra's are converted to Indifferent by their Pro neighbours. Our results on the Sznajd model are in an overall agreement with the results of the mean field approach and with those known from the initial model formulation. The simulation on the voter model shows that an amount of Contra's who remain after convertion depends on the network topology.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

A Bibliometrics Portrait of Chinese Research through the Lens of China Economic Review. A research proposal.

Notwithstanding, in the last two decades, there has been a noticeable increase in published work on the research field of Chinese economy. There are few studies, which analyze the evolution of Chinese economics research, and the weight of international economics within it, by resorting to objective methods, namely bibliometrics. Giving our focus on Chinese economics related research, we select to base our empirical analysis on the “seed journal” China Economic Review (CER), which is the most important economic journal especially concerned with the issues of Chinese economy. We classify and assess all the (522) articles that were published in CER from its genesis (1989) up to December 2010. We construct three main databases: the first database as bibliographic database that contains the more than 500 articles published in CER, where we classify articles by themes (such as Macroeconomics, Microeconomics and International Economics) and types(such as formal vs. empirical); the second database includes the references of those 500 articles, which we denominate ‘roots of Chinese economics research’; and the third database, the ‘influence of Chinese economics research’, where we have all the studies that cited (more than 3000 references) the 500 articles published in CER. By undertaking an exploratory statistical analysis on the three databases - bibliographic database, ‘roots’ database and ‘influence’ database, we are able to assess three main group of issues: 1) the importance, within Chinese economics of the topic ‘international economic’; the types of research that are pursued in the period of analysis (formal vs empirical); and the most prolific authors in the area; 2) the ‘roots’ of Chinese economics, that is, who and which outlets are influencing most Chinese economics research; 3) the scope of influence of Chinese economics literature.Evolution of research, Economics, Bibliometrics, China Economic Review

Soft Power, World System Dynamics, and Democratization: A Bass Model of Democracy Diffusion 1800-2000

This article uses Polity IV data to probe system dynamics for studies of the global diffusion of democracy from 1800 to 2000. By analogy with the Bass model of diffusion of innovations, as translated into system dynamics by Sterman, the dynamic explanation proposed focuses on transitions to democracy, soft power, and communication rates on a global level. The analysis suggests that the transition from democratic experiences (\'the soft power of democracy\') can be estimated from the systems dynamics simulation of an extended Bass model. Soft power, fueled by the growth in communications worldwide, is today the major force behind the diffusion of democracy. Our findings indicate the applicability of system dynamics simulation tools for the analysis of political change over time in the world system of polities.Democracy, Bass, Communication, System Dynamics, Power, Diffusion

The dynamics of job creation and destruction for University graduates: why a rising unemployment rate can be misleading

This study uses a longitudinal matched employer-employee data set on the Portuguese economy to analyze systematic information on job creation and job destruction for university graduates, comparing it to other groups of workers. We find that the unemployment rate can provide an incomplete and misleading idea of the dynamics in labor demand and of the employment prospects for university graduates. The pessimistic view that seems to be popular nowadays, stating that the expansion of higher education may have gone too far and that investment in higher education has become a too risky business, possibly not worthwhile, as employers are no longer keen on recruiting newly graduate workers, does not find support in the empirical evidence for the Portuguese economy.unemployment, gross job flows

A QFD framework for quality, innovation and high-tech product development dynamics

The customer mostly chooses a product on the base of its quality, which therefore arises as the main cause of its commercial success. In a nearly axiomatic drawing, it follows that the effect of innovation is the improvement of quality, which itself becomes the aim of innovation. Even though the previous statement relates quality and innovation, it still does not explain their dynamics. To stress them, the ‘quality' concept must be analyzed in more detail. In fact, in addition to the ‘perceived quality', the quality ensured through `design, manufacturing and marketing' combined domains should be dealt with. This paper enhances this issue taking advantage of principles and models made available by control theory schemes coupled with quality function development (QFD) and best practice software modeling based on unified modeling language (UML

Alcohol Advertising and Advertising Bans: A Survey of Research Methods, Results, and Policy Implications

This chapter surveys the literatures on advertising bans and alcohol consumption or abuse, and advertising expenditures and alcohol consumption. Studies of state-level bans of billboards are examined as well as studies of international bans that cover broadcasting media. For expenditures, the survey concentrates on econometric methods and the existence of an industry advertising-sales response function. Selected results from survey-research studies of advertising and youth alcohol behaviors also are discussed. The chapter concludes that advertising bans do not reduce alcohol consumption or abuse; advertising expenditures do not have a market-wide expansion effect; and survey-research studies of youth behaviors are seriously incomplete as a basis for public policy. Results of the survey are applied to the Supreme Court's Central Hudson test for constitutionality of restrictions on commercial speech.