Enhancing geographical information systems capabilities with multi-criteria evaluation functions

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Investment under ambiguity with the best and worst in mind

Recent literature on optimal investment has stressed the difference between the impact of risk and the impact of ambiguity - also called Knightian uncertainty - on investors' decisions. In this paper, we show that a decision maker's attitude towards ambiguity is similarly crucial for investment decisions. We capture the investor's individual ambiguity attitude by applying alpha-MEU preferences to a standard investment problem. We show that the presence of ambiguity often leads to an increase in the subjective project value, and entrepreneurs are more eager to invest. Thereby, our investment model helps to explain differences in investment behavior in situations which are objectively identical

Different Modeling Strategies for Discrete Choice Models of Female Labour Supply: Estimates for Switzerland

In recent applications of discrete choice models of labour supply considerable attention has been devoted to strategies to increase the flexibility of models for a better fit to the data. These include the introduction of random parameters, fixed cost of work or flexible functional forms of preferences. Based on estimates of models of recent studies this paper compares these different modeling strategies. Results for Swiss data show that the traditional way to interpret fixed cost of work is ad hoc. Furthermore our results indicate that care should be taken when using very general function forms of preferencesmultinomial logit; household labour supply; taxation; microsimulation

Individual and Couple Decision Behavior under Risk:The Power of Ultimate Control

This paper reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples, and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the individuals and the couples’ degrees of risk aversion, and we analyze how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they have to perform joint decisions under risk. We show that the man has more decision power than the woman, but the woman’s decision power increases when she has ultimate control over the joint decision.

Individual and couple decision behavior under risk: Evidence on the dynamics of power balance

This paper reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the spouses and the couples' degrees of risk aversion, we assess how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they make risky decisions and we shed light on the dynamics of the decision process that takes place when couples make risky decisions. We find that, far from being fixed, the balance of power within the household is malleable. In most couples, men have, initially, more decision-making power than women but women who ultimately implement the joint decisions gain more and more power over the course of decision making.Balance of power; Experiments; Household decision-making; Risk.

RISK AVERSION, UNCERTAINTY AVERSION, AND VARIATION AVERSION IN APPLIED COMMODITY PRICE ANALYSIS

Standard models of hedging behavior assume that either hedgers wish to minimize net price variation or they wish to balance variation versus profits. These models treat variation as risk and fail to distinguish between variation that is random and variation that is not random over time. Newer models of decision making differentiate between random and nonrandom variation somewhat, but they inadequately distinguish variation from risk. This paper reviews the distinctions among variation, uncertainty, and risk and calculates optimal hedge ratios for two models addressing the distinction. Empirical optimal hedge ratios typically decline toward zero when variation aversion is included in the models. These results may help explain why hedgers commonly hedge less than recommended by the standard models.Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing,

Introduction to SIMRAND: Simulation of research and development project

SIMRAND: SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects is a methodology developed to aid the engineering and management decision process in the selection of the optimal set of systems or tasks to be funded on a research and development project. A project may have a set of systems or tasks under consideration for which the total cost exceeds the allocated budget. Other factors such as personnel and facilities may also enter as constraints. Thus the project's management must select, from among the complete set of systems or tasks under consideration, a partial set that satisfies all project constraints. The SIMRAND methodology uses analytical techniques and probability theory, decision analysis of management science, and computer simulation, in the selection of this optimal partial set. The SIMRAND methodology is truly a management tool. It initially specifies the information that must be generated by the engineers, thus providing information for the management direction of the engineers, and it ranks the alternatives according to the preferences of the decision makers