A novel planning approach for the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) sector: the use of object-oriented bayesian networks

Conventional approaches to design and plan water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) interventions are not suitable for capturing the increasing complexity of the context in which these services are delivered. Multidimensional tools are needed to unravel the links between access to basic services and the socio-economic drivers of poverty. This paper applies an object-oriented Bayesian network to reflect the main issues that determine access to WaSH services. A national Program in Kenya has been analyzed as initial case study. The main findings suggest that the proposed approach is able to accommodate local conditions and to represent an accurate reflection of the complexities of WaSH issues, incorporating the uncertainty intrinsic to service delivery processes. Results indicate those areas in which policy makers should prioritize efforts and resources. Similarly, the study shows the effects of sector interventions, as well as the foreseen impact of various scenarios related to the national Program.Preprin

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems, cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture

ONGOING SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY COMPLIANCE MONITORING IN SUPPLY CHAINS

Social sustainability issus such as child labour at a supplier pose significant reputational risk for companies. Therefore, many companies now require that suppliers follow certain standards or codes of conduct. However, in today´s complex supply chains with hundreds of sourcing locations, ongoing monitoring of compliance through audits for every supplier is hardly practical. Consequntly, an information technology system is investigated as a tool to establish ongoing monitoring of suppliers based on available information with regard to the risk that suppliers breach the compliance rules defined. This paper describes work on a system that uses a Bayesian network to integrate evidence from multiple public and private data sources in order to rank suppliers dynamically. A particular focus of future work will be a prototype based on the issu of child labour and the advantages of applying text mining methods

Airline Catering Supply Chain Performance during Pandemic Disruption: A Bayesian Network Modelling Approach

The supply chain (SC) encompasses all actions related to meeting customer requests and transferring materials upstream to meet those demands. Organisations must operate towards increasing SC efficiency and effectiveness to meet SC objectives. Although most businesses expected the COVID-19 pandemic to severely negatively impact their SCs, they did not know how to model disruptions or their effects on performance in the event of a pandemic, leading to delayed responses, an incomplete understanding of the pandemic’s effects and late deployment of recovery measures. This paper presents a method for modelling and quantifying SC performance assessment for airline catering. In the COVID-19 context, the researchers proposed a Bayesian network (BN) model to measure SC performance and risk events and quantify the consequences of pandemic disruptions. The research simulates and measures the impact of different triggers on SC performance and business continuity using forward and backward propagation analysis, among other BN features, enabling us to combine various SC perspectives and explicitly account for pandemic scenarios. This study’s findings offer a fresh theoretical perspective on the use of BNs in pandemic SC disruption modelling. The findings can be used as a decision-making tool to predict and better understand how pandemics affect SC performance.Airline Catering Supply Chain Performance during Pandemic Disruption: A Bayesian Network Modelling ApproachacceptedVersio

Modelling and managing systemic risks in supply chains

A structured review of the supply chain and risk management literature supports an analysis of the sources and types of risks anticipated in supply chains and networks. We discuss alternative modelling approaches, such as Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN), System Dynamics, Fault and Event Trees, which are evaluated against the criteria characterizing systemic risks that emerge from the literature review. Finally, we briefly present an empirical pilot case study is conducted with a public sector organization in charge of a pharmaceutical distribution network to explore the feasibility of a BBN modelling approach