6,101 research outputs found
Regime switching volatility calibration by the Baum-Welch method
Regime switching volatility models provide a tractable method of modelling stochastic
volatility. Currently the most popular method of regime switching calibration is the
Hamilton filter. We propose using the Baum-Welch algorithm, an established technique
from Engineering, to calibrate regime switching models instead. We demonstrate the
Baum-Welch algorithm and discuss the significant advantages that it provides compared to the Hamilton filter. We provide computational results of calibrating and comparing the performance of the Baum-Welch and the Hamilton filter to S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 data, examining their performance in and out of sample
A novel dynamic asset allocation system using Feature Saliency Hidden Markov models for smart beta investing
The financial crisis of 2008 generated interest in more transparent,
rules-based strategies for portfolio construction, with Smart beta strategies
emerging as a trend among institutional investors. While they perform well in
the long run, these strategies often suffer from severe short-term drawdown
(peak-to-trough decline) with fluctuating performance across cycles. To address
cyclicality and underperformance, we build a dynamic asset allocation system
using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We test our system across multiple
combinations of smart beta strategies and the resulting portfolios show an
improvement in risk-adjusted returns, especially on more return oriented
portfolios (up to 50 in excess of market annually). In addition, we propose
a novel smart beta allocation system based on the Feature Saliency HMM (FSHMM)
algorithm that performs feature selection simultaneously with the training of
the HMM, to improve regime identification. We evaluate our systematic trading
system with real life assets using MSCI indices; further, the results (up to
60 in excess of market annually) show model performance improvement with
respect to portfolios built using full feature HMMs
Bayesian Portfolio Selection in a Markov Switching Gaussian Mixture Model
Departure from normality poses implementation barriers to the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection. When assets are affected by common and idiosyncratic shocks, the distribution of asset returns may exhibit Markov switching regimes and have a Gaussian mixture distribution conditional on each regime. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using the Gibbs sampler. An application to the global portfolio diversification is also discussed.Portfolio; Bayesian; Hidden Markov Model; Gaussian Mixture
On Geometric Ergodicity of Skewed - SVCHARME models
Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of
intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive
conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric
stochastic volatility models with skewness driven by hidden Markov Chain with
switching
Hierarchical hidden Markov structure for dynamic correlations: the hierarchical RSDC model.
This paper presents a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure which is a generalization of the Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC) of Pelletier (2006). This model, which we name Hierarchical RSDC, is building with the hierarchical generalization of the hidden Markov model introduced by Fine et al. (1998). This can be viewed graphically as a tree-structure with different types of states. The first are called production states and they can emit observations, as in the classical Markov-Switching approach. The second are called abstract states. They can't emit observations but establish vertical and horizontal probabilities that define the dynamic of the hidden hierarchical structure. The main gain of this approach compared to the classical Markov-Switching model is to increase the granularity of the regimes. Our model is also compared to the new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model (DSTCC), a STAR approach for dynamic correlations proposed by Silvennoinen and TerÀsvirta (2007). The reason is that under certain assumptions, the DSTCC and our model represent two classical competing approaches to modeling regime switching. We also perform Monte-Carlo simulations and we apply the model to two empirical applications studying the conditional correlations of selected stock returns. Results show that the Hierarchical RSDC provides a good measure of the correlations and also has an interesting explanatory power.Multivariate GARCH; Dynamic correlations; Regime switching; Markov chain; Hidden Markov models; Hierarchical Hidden Markov models
Statistical identification with hidden Markov models of large order splitting strategies in an equity market
Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and
traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large
trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders we
fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick by tick
inventory variation of market members of the Spanish Stock Exchange. Our
methodology probabilistically detects trading sequences, which are
characterized by a net majority of buy or sell transactions. We interpret these
patches of sequential buying or selling transactions as proxies of the traded
hidden orders. We find that the time, volume and number of transactions size
distributions of these patches are fat tailed. Long patches are characterized
by a high fraction of market orders and a low participation rate, while short
patches have a large fraction of limit orders and a high participation rate. We
observe the existence of a buy-sell asymmetry in the number, average length,
average fraction of market orders and average participation rate of the
detected patches. The detected asymmetry is clearly depending on the local
market trend. We also compare the hidden Markov models patches with those
obtained with the segmentation method used in Vaglica {\it et al.} (2008) and
we conclude that the former ones can be interpreted as a partition of the
latter ones.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figure
Universal Codes from Switching Strategies
We discuss algorithms for combining sequential prediction strategies, a task
which can be viewed as a natural generalisation of the concept of universal
coding. We describe a graphical language based on Hidden Markov Models for
defining prediction strategies, and we provide both existing and new models as
examples. The models include efficient, parameterless models for switching
between the input strategies over time, including a model for the case where
switches tend to occur in clusters, and finally a new model for the scenario
where the prediction strategies have a known relationship, and where jumps are
typically between strongly related ones. This last model is relevant for coding
time series data where parameter drift is expected. As theoretical ontributions
we introduce an interpolation construction that is useful in the development
and analysis of new algorithms, and we establish a new sophisticated lemma for
analysing the individual sequence regret of parameterised models
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