A Real Option Dynamic Decision (rodd) Framework For Operational Innovations

Changing the business operations and adopting new operational innovations, have become key features for a business solution approach. However, there are challenges for developing innovative operations due to a lack of the proper decision analysis tools, lack of understanding the impacts transition will have on operational models, and the time limits of the innovation life cycle. The cases of business failure in operational innovation (i.e. Eastman Kodak Company and Borders Group Inc.,) support the need for an investment decision framework. This research aims to develop a Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) framework for decision making, to support decision makers for operational innovation investments. This development will help the business/organization to recognize the need for change in operations, and quickly respond to market threats and customer needs. The RODD framework is developed by integrating a strategic investment method (Real Options Analysis), management transition evaluation (Matrix of Change), competitiveness evaluation (Lotka-Volterra), and dynamic behavior modeling (System Dynamics Modeling) to analyze the feasibility of the transformation, and to assess return on investment of new operation schemes. Two case studies are used: United Parcel Service of America, Inc., and Firefighting Operations to validate the RODD framework. The results show that the benefits of this decisionmaking framework are (1) to provide increased flexibility, improved predictions, and more information to decision makers; (2) to assess the value alternative option with regards to uncertainty and competitiveness; (3) to reduce complexity; and (4) to gain a new understanding of operational innovations

Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructures Security

Modern critical infrastructures can be considered as large scale Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). Therefore, when designing, implementing, and operating systems for Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), the boundaries between physical security and cybersecurity are blurred. Emerging systems for Critical Infrastructures Security and Protection must therefore consider integrated approaches that emphasize the interplay between cybersecurity and physical security techniques. Hence, there is a need for a new type of integrated security intelligence i.e., Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence (CPTI). This book presents novel solutions for integrated Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for infrastructures in various sectors, such as Industrial Sites and Plants, Air Transport, Gas, Healthcare, and Finance. The solutions rely on novel methods and technologies, such as integrated modelling for cyber-physical systems, novel reliance indicators, and data driven approaches including BigData analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some of the presented approaches are sector agnostic i.e., applicable to different sectors with a fair customization effort. Nevertheless, the book presents also peculiar challenges of specific sectors and how they can be addressed. The presented solutions consider the European policy context for Security, Cyber security, and Critical Infrastructure protection, as laid out by the European Commission (EC) to support its Member States to protect and ensure the resilience of their critical infrastructures. Most of the co-authors and contributors are from European Research and Technology Organizations, as well as from European Critical Infrastructure Operators. Hence, the presented solutions respect the European approach to CIP, as reflected in the pillars of the European policy framework. The latter includes for example the Directive on security of network and information systems (NIS Directive), the Directive on protecting European Critical Infrastructures, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and the Cybersecurity Act Regulation. The sector specific solutions that are described in the book have been developed and validated in the scope of several European Commission (EC) co-funded projects on Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), which focus on the listed sectors. Overall, the book illustrates a rich set of systems, technologies, and applications that critical infrastructure operators could consult to shape their future strategies. It also provides a catalogue of CPTI case studies in different sectors, which could be useful for security consultants and practitioners as well

A Formalised Approach to Designing Sonification Systems for Network-Security Monitoring

Sonification systems, in which data are represented through sound, have the potential to be useful in a number of network-security monitoring applications in Security Operations Centres (SOCs). Security analysts working in SOCs generally monitor networks using a combination of anomaly-detection techniques, Intrusion Detection Systems and data presented in visual and text-based forms. In the last two decades significant progress has been made in developing novel sonification systems to further support network-monitoring tasks, but many of these systems have not been sufficiently validated, and there is a lack of uptake in SOCs. Furthermore, little guidance exists on design requirements for the sonification of network data. In this paper, we identify the key role that sonification, if implemented correctly, could play in addressing shortcomings of traditional network-monitoring methods. Based on a review of prior research, we propose an approach to developing sonification systems for network monitoring. This approach involves the formalisation of a model for designing sonifications in this space; identification of sonification design aesthetics suitable for realtime network monitoring; and system refinement and validation through comprehensive user testing. As an initial step in this system development, we present a formalised model for designing sonifications for network-security monitoring. The application of this model is demonstrated through our development of prototype sonification systems for two different use-cases within network security monitoring

Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructures Security

Modern critical infrastructures can be considered as large scale Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). Therefore, when designing, implementing, and operating systems for Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), the boundaries between physical security and cybersecurity are blurred. Emerging systems for Critical Infrastructures Security and Protection must therefore consider integrated approaches that emphasize the interplay between cybersecurity and physical security techniques. Hence, there is a need for a new type of integrated security intelligence i.e., Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence (CPTI). This book presents novel solutions for integrated Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for infrastructures in various sectors, such as Industrial Sites and Plants, Air Transport, Gas, Healthcare, and Finance. The solutions rely on novel methods and technologies, such as integrated modelling for cyber-physical systems, novel reliance indicators, and data driven approaches including BigData analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some of the presented approaches are sector agnostic i.e., applicable to different sectors with a fair customization effort. Nevertheless, the book presents also peculiar challenges of specific sectors and how they can be addressed. The presented solutions consider the European policy context for Security, Cyber security, and Critical Infrastructure protection, as laid out by the European Commission (EC) to support its Member States to protect and ensure the resilience of their critical infrastructures. Most of the co-authors and contributors are from European Research and Technology Organizations, as well as from European Critical Infrastructure Operators. Hence, the presented solutions respect the European approach to CIP, as reflected in the pillars of the European policy framework. The latter includes for example the Directive on security of network and information systems (NIS Directive), the Directive on protecting European Critical Infrastructures, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and the Cybersecurity Act Regulation. The sector specific solutions that are described in the book have been developed and validated in the scope of several European Commission (EC) co-funded projects on Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), which focus on the listed sectors. Overall, the book illustrates a rich set of systems, technologies, and applications that critical infrastructure operators could consult to shape their future strategies. It also provides a catalogue of CPTI case studies in different sectors, which could be useful for security consultants and practitioners as well

Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructures Security

Modern critical infrastructures comprise of many interconnected cyber and physical assets, and as such are large scale cyber-physical systems. Hence, the conventional approach of securing these infrastructures by addressing cyber security and physical security separately is no longer effective. Rather more integrated approaches that address the security of cyber and physical assets at the same time are required. This book presents integrated (i.e. cyber and physical) security approaches and technologies for the critical infrastructures that underpin our societies. Specifically, it introduces advanced techniques for threat detection, risk assessment and security information sharing, based on leading edge technologies like machine learning, security knowledge modelling, IoT security and distributed ledger infrastructures. Likewise, it presets how established security technologies like Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), pen-testing, vulnerability assessment and security data analytics can be used in the context of integrated Critical Infrastructure Protection. The novel methods and techniques of the book are exemplified in case studies involving critical infrastructures in four industrial sectors, namely finance, healthcare, energy and communications. The peculiarities of critical infrastructure protection in each one of these sectors is discussed and addressed based on sector-specific solutions. The advent of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) is expected to increase the cyber-physical nature of critical infrastructures as well as their interconnection in the scope of sectorial and cross-sector value chains. Therefore, the demand for solutions that foster the interplay between cyber and physical security, and enable Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence is likely to explode. In this book, we have shed light on the structure of such integrated security systems, as well as on the technologies that will underpin their operation. We hope that Security and Critical Infrastructure Protection stakeholders will find the book useful when planning their future security strategies

Holding on to Who They Are: Pathways for Variations in Response to Toxic Workplace Behavior Among U.S. Intelligence Officers

The U.S. intelligence community is a critical mission industry responsible for protecting lives and safety in ways that impact the global security environment. Research on the deleterious impact of toxic workplace behavior on other critical mission fields, such as health care and the U.S. military, is robust. However, intelligence scholars publishing within the unclassified arena have been silent on the phenomenon, how personnel respond to it, and how it may impact the intelligence function. This lack of scholarship has afforded an opportunity to understand what constitutes toxic behavior in the intelligence environment and how it may affect U.S. national security objectives. This study presents a theoretical model of response to toxic workplace behavior among intelligence officers in the U.S. intelligence community that centers on a single goal: Holding Self. Using grounded theory methodology and situational analysis in two segments, the study examines how intelligence officers responded and the role that efforts to hold onto self-concepts played in those responses. The findings included three psychological dimensions, three action dimensions, and two inter-dimensions of response. The findings also included identification of the broader ecological situation conditioning response and how those choices operationalized into the business of being intelligence officers. The final model serves as a foundation for future empirical research on the topic. This dissertation is available in open access at AURA: Antioch University Repository and Archive, https://aura.antioch.edu/, and OhioLINK ETD Center, https://etd.ohiolink.edu/

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2012

Proceedings of the 6th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 19, 2012 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia

A digital open source investigation of how war begins: Ukraine’s Donbas in 2014

This dissertation demonstrates the usefulness of digital open source information (DOSI) for academic research on the causes of war through an in-depth case study of the conflict in eastern Ukraine’s Donets Basin (Donbas). It argues that the current social science literature is in need of theoretical and methodological innovation to operate in the abundant but murky information environment that surrounds the Donbas war and other conflicts of the social media age. The result is a deep divide in the academic literature between scholars who emphasize domestic causes of the Donbas war and those who emphasize Russian involvement. To address this shortcoming, my dissertation develops new theoretical and methodological frameworks. My theoretical framework combines conflict escalation theory with the historical institutionalist concept of critical junctures. Based on this framework, I develop an escalation sequence model of the Donbas conflict which divides the formative phase of the war into six critical junctures. Moreover, my theoretical framework draws attention to intervention and delegation as two distinct modes of external actor involvement in these critical junctures. My methodological framework combines process tracing with the journalistic practice of DOSI analysis to shift the methodological focus towards source criticism and probabilistic reasoning. I argue that this shift towards digital forensic process tracing is essential to make social science methodology fit for the social media age. The six empirical chapters of my dissertation apply digital forensic process tracing to the six critical junctures of the Donbas war’s escalation sequence. For each critical juncture, they assess the available open source evidence of domestic causes and Russian interference. I argue that there is convincing evidence that Russian involvement was the primary cause of four of the six critical junctures. For this reason, my dissertation concludes that the Donbas war is primarily an interstate war between Russia and Ukraine