11,230 research outputs found
Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development
The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology
and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art
Refinement Type Inference via Horn Constraint Optimization
We propose a novel method for inferring refinement types of higher-order
functional programs. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it can
infer maximally preferred (i.e., Pareto optimal) refinement types with respect
to a user-specified preference order. The flexible optimization of refinement
types enabled by the proposed method paves the way for interesting
applications, such as inferring most-general characterization of inputs for
which a given program satisfies (or violates) a given safety (or termination)
property. Our method reduces such a type optimization problem to a Horn
constraint optimization problem by using a new refinement type system that can
flexibly reason about non-determinism in programs. Our method then solves the
constraint optimization problem by repeatedly improving a current solution
until convergence via template-based invariant generation. We have implemented
a prototype inference system based on our method, and obtained promising
results in preliminary experiments.Comment: 19 page
New methods for the estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model based extended Kalman filter and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems
This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use
Message-Passing Inference on a Factor Graph for Collaborative Filtering
This paper introduces a novel message-passing (MP) framework for the
collaborative filtering (CF) problem associated with recommender systems. We
model the movie-rating prediction problem popularized by the Netflix Prize,
using a probabilistic factor graph model and study the model by deriving
generalization error bounds in terms of the training error. Based on the model,
we develop a new MP algorithm, termed IMP, for learning the model. To show
superiority of the IMP algorithm, we compare it with the closely related
expectation-maximization (EM) based algorithm and a number of other matrix
completion algorithms. Our simulation results on Netflix data show that, while
the methods perform similarly with large amounts of data, the IMP algorithm is
superior for small amounts of data. This improves the cold-start problem of the
CF systems in practice. Another advantage of the IMP algorithm is that it can
be analyzed using the technique of density evolution (DE) that was originally
developed for MP decoding of error-correcting codes
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Bayesian recursive parameter estimation for hydrologic models
The uncertainty in a given hydrologic prediction is the compound effect of the parameter, data, and structural uncertainties associated with the underlying model. In general, therefore, the confidence in a hydrologic prediction can be improved by reducing the uncertainty associated with the parameter estimates. However, the classical approach to doing this via model calibration typically requires that considerable amounts of data be collected and assimilated before the model can be used. This limitation becomes immediately apparent when hydrologic predictions must be generated for a previously ungauged watershed that has only recently been instrumented. This paper presents the framework for a Bayesian recursive estimation approach to hydrologic prediction that can be used for simultaneous parameter estimation and prediction in an operational setting. The prediction is described in terms of the probabilities associated with different output values. The uncertainty associated with the parameter estimates is updated (reduced) recursively, resulting in smaller prediction uncertainties as measurement data are successively assimilated. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method are illustrated in the context of two models: a simple unit hydrograph model and the more complex Sacramento soil moisture accounting model, using data from the Leaf River basin in Mississippi
Causal inference using the algorithmic Markov condition
Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon
detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the
joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible
when only single observations are present.
We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities
between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional
stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of
conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding
causal inference rules.
We explain why a consistent reformulation of causal inference in terms of
algorithmic complexity implies a new inference principle that takes into
account also the complexity of conditional probability densities, making it
possible to select among Markov equivalent causal graphs. This insight provides
a theoretical foundation of a heuristic principle proposed in earlier work.
We also discuss how to replace Kolmogorov complexity with decidable
complexity criteria. This can be seen as an algorithmic analog of replacing the
empirically undecidable question of statistical independence with practical
independence tests that are based on implicit or explicit assumptions on the
underlying distribution.Comment: 16 figure
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