A Tight Excess Risk Bound via a Unified PAC-Bayesian-Rademacher-Shtarkov-MDL Complexity

We present a novel notion of complexity that interpolates between and generalizes some classic existing complexity notions in learning theory: for estimators like empirical risk minimization (ERM) with arbitrary bounded losses, it is upper bounded in terms of data-independent Rademacher complexity; for generalized Bayesian estimators, it is upper bounded by the data-dependent information complexity (also known as stochastic or PAC-Bayesian, $\mathrm{KL}(\text{posterior} \operatorname{\|} \text{prior})$ complexity. For (penalized) ERM, the new complexity reduces to (generalized) normalized maximum likelihood (NML) complexity, i.e. a minimax log-loss individual-sequence regret. Our first main result bounds excess risk in terms of the new complexity. Our second main result links the new complexity via Rademacher complexity to $L_2(P)$ entropy, thereby generalizing earlier results of Opper, Haussler, Lugosi, and Cesa-Bianchi who did the log-loss case with $L_\infty$. Together, these results recover optimal bounds for VC- and large (polynomial entropy) classes, replacing localized Rademacher complexity by a simpler analysis which almost completely separates the two aspects that determine the achievable rates: 'easiness' (Bernstein) conditions and model complexity.Comment: 38 page

Universality of Bayesian mixture predictors

The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to a given set C, but the latter is completely arbitrary (uncountably infinite, without any structure given). The performance is measured with asymptotic average log loss. In this work it is shown that the minimax asymptotic performance is always attainable, and it is attained by a convex combination of a countably many measures from the set C (a Bayesian mixture). This was previously only known for the case when the best achievable asymptotic error is 0. This also contrasts previous results that show that in the non-realizable case all Bayesian mixtures may be suboptimal, while there is a predictor that achieves the optimal performance

Relax and Localize: From Value to Algorithms

We show a principled way of deriving online learning algorithms from a minimax analysis. Various upper bounds on the minimax value, previously thought to be non-constructive, are shown to yield algorithms. This allows us to seamlessly recover known methods and to derive new ones. Our framework also captures such "unorthodox" methods as Follow the Perturbed Leader and the R^2 forecaster. We emphasize that understanding the inherent complexity of the learning problem leads to the development of algorithms. We define local sequential Rademacher complexities and associated algorithms that allow us to obtain faster rates in online learning, similarly to statistical learning theory. Based on these localized complexities we build a general adaptive method that can take advantage of the suboptimality of the observed sequence. We present a number of new algorithms, including a family of randomized methods that use the idea of a "random playout". Several new versions of the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader algorithms are presented, as well as methods based on the Littlestone's dimension, efficient methods for matrix completion with trace norm, and algorithms for the problems of transductive learning and prediction with static experts

Online Nonparametric Regression

We establish optimal rates for online regression for arbitrary classes of regression functions in terms of the sequential entropy introduced in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tewari, 2010). The optimal rates are shown to exhibit a phase transition analogous to the i.i.d./statistical learning case, studied in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tsybakov 2013). In the frequently encountered situation when sequential entropy and i.i.d. empirical entropy match, our results point to the interesting phenomenon that the rates for statistical learning with squared loss and online nonparametric regression are the same. In addition to a non-algorithmic study of minimax regret, we exhibit a generic forecaster that enjoys the established optimal rates. We also provide a recipe for designing online regression algorithms that can be computationally efficient. We illustrate the techniques by deriving existing and new forecasters for the case of finite experts and for online linear regression

Efficient Transductive Online Learning via Randomized Rounding

Most traditional online learning algorithms are based on variants of mirror descent or follow-the-leader. In this paper, we present an online algorithm based on a completely different approach, tailored for transductive settings, which combines "random playout" and randomized rounding of loss subgradients. As an application of our approach, we present the first computationally efficient online algorithm for collaborative filtering with trace-norm constrained matrices. As a second application, we solve an open question linking batch learning and transductive online learningComment: To appear in a Festschrift in honor of V.N. Vapnik. Preliminary version presented in NIPS 201