Adaptive independent Metropolis--Hastings

We propose an adaptive independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm with the ability to learn from all previous proposals in the chain except the current location. It is an extension of the independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm. Convergence is proved provided a strong Doeblin condition is satisfied, which essentially requires that all the proposal functions have uniformly heavier tails than the stationary distribution. The proof also holds if proposals depending on the current state are used intermittently, provided the information from these iterations is not used for adaption. The algorithm gives samples from the exact distribution within a finite number of iterations with probability arbitrarily close to 1. The algorithm is particularly useful when a large number of samples from the same distribution is necessary, like in Bayesian estimation, and in CPU intensive applications like, for example, in inverse problems and optimization.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP545 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo

We propose Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo (AIMM), a novel approach to sample from challenging probability distributions defined on a general state-space. While adaptive MCMC methods usually update a parametric proposal kernel with a global rule, AIMM locally adapts a semiparametric kernel. AIMM is based on an independent Metropolis-Hastings proposal distribution which takes the form of a finite mixture of Gaussian distributions. Central to this approach is the idea that the proposal distribution adapts to the target by locally adding a mixture component when the discrepancy between the proposal mixture and the target is deemed to be too large. As a result, the number of components in the mixture proposal is not fixed in advance. Theoretically, we prove that there exists a process that can be made arbitrarily close to AIMM and that converges to the correct target distribution. We also illustrate that it performs well in practice in a variety of challenging situations, including high-dimensional and multimodal target distributions

Ensemble Transport Adaptive Importance Sampling

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful and commonly used family of numerical methods for sampling from complex probability distributions. As applications of these methods increase in size and complexity, the need for efficient methods increases. In this paper, we present a particle ensemble algorithm. At each iteration, an importance sampling proposal distribution is formed using an ensemble of particles. A stratified sample is taken from this distribution and weighted under the posterior, a state-of-the-art ensemble transport resampling method is then used to create an evenly weighted sample ready for the next iteration. We demonstrate that this ensemble transport adaptive importance sampling (ETAIS) method outperforms MCMC methods with equivalent proposal distributions for low dimensional problems, and in fact shows better than linear improvements in convergence rates with respect to the number of ensemble members. We also introduce a new resampling strategy, multinomial transformation (MT), which while not as accurate as the ensemble transport resampler, is substantially less costly for large ensemble sizes, and can then be used in conjunction with ETAIS for complex problems. We also focus on how algorithmic parameters regarding the mixture proposal can be quickly tuned to optimise performance. In particular, we demonstrate this methodology's superior sampling for multimodal problems, such as those arising from inference for mixture models, and for problems with expensive likelihoods requiring the solution of a differential equation, for which speed-ups of orders of magnitude are demonstrated. Likelihood evaluations of the ensemble could be computed in a distributed manner, suggesting that this methodology is a good candidate for parallel Bayesian computations

Improved Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling Algorithms

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, are widely used for Bayesian inference. One of the most important issues for any MCMC method is the convergence of the Markov chain, which depends crucially on a suitable choice of the proposal density. Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling (ARMS) is a well-known MH scheme that generates samples from one-dimensional target densities making use of adaptive piecewise proposals constructed using support points taken from rejected samples. In this work we pinpoint a crucial drawback in the adaptive procedure in ARMS: support points might never be added inside regions where the proposal is below the target. When this happens in many regions it leads to a poor performance of ARMS, with the proposal never converging to the target. In order to overcome this limitation we propose two improved adaptive schemes for constructing the proposal. The first one is a direct modification of the ARMS procedure that incorporates support points inside regions where the proposal is below the target, while satisfying the diminishing adaptation property, one of the required conditions to assure the convergence of the Markov chain. The second one is an adaptive independent MH algorithm with the ability to learn from all previous samples except for the current state of the chain, thus also guaranteeing the convergence to the invariant density. These two new schemes improve the adaptive strategy of ARMS, thus simplifying the complexity in the construction of the proposals. Numerical results show that the new techniques provide better performance w.r.t. the standard ARMS.Comment: Matlab code provided in http://a2rms.sourceforge.net