Spatiotemporal Patterns of Urban Human Mobility

The modeling of human mobility is adopting new directions due to the increasing availability of big data sources from human activity. These sources enclose digital information about daily visited locations of a large number of individuals. Examples of these data include: mobile phone calls, credit card transactions, bank notes dispersal, check-ins in internet applications, among several others. In this study, we consider the data obtained from smart subway fare card transactions to characterize and model urban mobility patterns. We present a simple mobility model for predicting peoples’ visited locations using the popularity of places in the city as an interaction parameter between different individuals. This ingredient is sufficient to reproduce several characteristics of the observed travel behavior such as: the number of trips between different locations in the city, the exploration of new places and the frequency of individual visits of a particular location. Moreover, we indicate the limitations of the proposed model and discuss open questions in the current state of the art statistical models of human mobility

Flow Motifs Reveal Limitations of the Static Framework to Represent Human interactions

Networks are commonly used to define underlying interaction structures where infections, information, or other quantities may spread. Although the standard approach has been to aggregate all links into a static structure, some studies suggest that the time order in which the links are established may alter the dynamics of spreading. In this paper, we study the impact of the time ordering in the limits of flow on various empirical temporal networks. By using a random walk dynamics, we estimate the flow on links and convert the original undirected network (temporal and static) into a directed flow network. We then introduce the concept of flow motifs and quantify the divergence in the representativity of motifs when using the temporal and static frameworks. We find that the regularity of contacts and persistence of vertices (common in email communication and face-to-face interactions) result on little differences in the limits of flow for both frameworks. On the other hand, in the case of communication within a dating site (and of a sexual network), the flow between vertices changes significantly in the temporal framework such that the static approximation poorly represents the structure of contacts. We have also observed that cliques with 3 and 4 vertices con- taining only low-flow links are more represented than the same cliques with all high-flow links. The representativity of these low-flow cliques is higher in the temporal framework. Our results suggest that the flow between vertices connected in cliques depend on the topological context in which they are placed and in the time sequence in which the links are established. The structure of the clique alone does not completely characterize the potential of flow between the vertices

Measuring Regularity of Individual Travel Patterns

Regularity is an important property of individual travel behavior, and the ability to measure it enables advances in behavior modeling, mobility prediction, and customer analytics. In this paper, we propose a methodology to measure travel behavior regularity based on the order in which trips or activities are organized. We represent individuals' travel over multiple days as sequences of 'travel events' - discrete and repeatable behavior units explicitly defined based on the research question and the available data. We then present a metric of regularity based on entropy rate, which is sensitive to both the frequency of travel events and the order in which they occur. The methodology is demonstrated using a large sample of pseudonymised transit smart card transaction records from London, U.K. The entropy rate is estimated with a procedure based on the Burrows-Wheeler transform. The results confirm that the order of travel events is an essential component of regularity in travel behavior. They also demonstrate that the proposed measure of regularity captures both conventional patterns and atypical routine patterns that are regular but not matched to the 9-to-5 working day or working week. Unlike existing measures of regularity, our approach is agnostic to calendar definitions and makes no assumptions regarding periodicity of travel behavior. The proposed methodology is flexible and can be adapted to study other aspects of individual mobility using different data sources.Transport for London (Organization

There and back again: detecting regularity in human encounter communities

Detecting communities that recur over time is a challenging problem due to the potential sparsity of encounter events at an individual scale and inherent uncertainty in human behavior. Existing methods for community detection in mobile human encounter networks ignore the presence of temporal patterns that lead to periodic components in the network. Daily and weekly routine are prevalent in human behavior and can serve as rich context for applications that rely on person-to-person encounters, such as mobile routing protocols and intelligent digital personal assistants. In this article, we present the design, implementation, and evaluation of an approach to decentralized periodic community detection that is robust to uncertainty and computationally efficient. This alternative approach has a novel periodicity detection method inspired by a neural synchrony measure used in the field of neurophysiology. We evaluate our approach and investigate human periodic encounter patterns using empirical datasets of inferred and direct-sensed encounters

Thinking about Attention in Games: Backward and Forward Induction

Behavioral economics improves economic analysis by using psychological regularity to suggest limits on rationality and self-interest (e.g. Camerer and Loewenstein 2003). Expressing these regularities in formal terms permits productive theorizing, suggests new experiments, can contribute to psychology, and can be used to shape economic policies which make normal people better off

Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks

Social systems are in a constant state of flux with dynamics spanning from minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years. Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams. While there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the micro-dynamics of social networks. Here we explore the dynamic social network of a densely-connected population of approximately 1000 individuals and their interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media contacts, geo-location, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection unnecessary. Starting from 5-minute time slices we uncover dynamic social structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity. Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores are preceded by coordination behavior in the communication networks, and demonstrating that social behavior can be predicted with high precision.Comment: Main Manuscript: 16 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary Information: 39 pages, 34 figure

Modeling bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human activity patterns the timing of individual human actions follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. We show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experiencing very long waiting times. We discuss two queueing models that capture human activity. The first model assumes that there are no limitations on the number of tasks an individual can hadle at any time, predicting that the waiting time of the individual tasks follow a heavy tailed distribution with exponent alpha=3/2. The second model imposes limitations on the queue length, resulting in alpha=1. We provide empirical evidence supporting the relevance of these two models to human activity patterns. Finally, we discuss possible extension of the proposed queueing models and outline some future challenges in exploring the statistical mechanisms of human dynamics.Comment: RevTex, 19 pages, 8 figure

Multi Product Market Equilibrium with Sequential Search

In this paper I investigate whether, in market equilibrium, one observes price dispersion and search when buyers intend to acquire several products whose price is unknown and exists a positive search cost. Although that seems fruitful, I prove that in market equilibrium it is not observed neither price dispersion nor search and shops act as if they where monopolists. Nevertheless, there is one property of the theory that is in accordance with empirical data, namely the continuous increase in the number and dimension of larger shops.Search, Price Dispersion, Market Equilibrium, Multi-products