Mean-Variance Optimization in Markov Decision Processes

We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudopolynomial exact and approximation algorithms.Comment: A full version of an ICML 2011 pape

Algorithmic aspects of mean–variance optimization in Markov decision processes

We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudopolynomial exact and approximation algorithms.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CMMI-0856063

Expectations or Guarantees? I Want It All! A crossroad between games and MDPs

When reasoning about the strategic capabilities of an agent, it is important to consider the nature of its adversaries. In the particular context of controller synthesis for quantitative specifications, the usual problem is to devise a strategy for a reactive system which yields some desired performance, taking into account the possible impact of the environment of the system. There are at least two ways to look at this environment. In the classical analysis of two-player quantitative games, the environment is purely antagonistic and the problem is to provide strict performance guarantees. In Markov decision processes, the environment is seen as purely stochastic: the aim is then to optimize the expected payoff, with no guarantee on individual outcomes. In this expository work, we report on recent results introducing the beyond worst-case synthesis problem, which is to construct strategies that guarantee some quantitative requirement in the worst-case while providing an higher expected value against a particular stochastic model of the environment given as input. This problem is relevant to produce system controllers that provide nice expected performance in the everyday situation while ensuring a strict (but relaxed) performance threshold even in the event of very bad (while unlikely) circumstances. It has been studied for both the mean-payoff and the shortest path quantitative measures.Comment: In Proceedings SR 2014, arXiv:1404.041

Policy Gradients for CVaR-Constrained MDPs

We study a risk-constrained version of the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, where the risk measure considered is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We propose two algorithms that obtain a locally risk-optimal policy by employing four tools: stochastic approximation, mini batches, policy gradients and importance sampling. Both the algorithms incorporate a CVaR estimation procedure, along the lines of Bardou et al. [2009], which in turn is based on Rockafellar-Uryasev's representation for CVaR and utilize the likelihood ratio principle for estimating the gradient of the sum of one cost function (objective of the SSP) and the gradient of the CVaR of the sum of another cost function (in the constraint of SSP). The algorithms differ in the manner in which they approximate the CVaR estimates/necessary gradients - the first algorithm uses stochastic approximation, while the second employ mini-batches in the spirit of Monte Carlo methods. We establish asymptotic convergence of both the algorithms. Further, since estimating CVaR is related to rare-event simulation, we incorporate an importance sampling based variance reduction scheme into our proposed algorithms

Functional Bandits

We introduce the functional bandit problem, where the objective is to find an arm that optimises a known functional of the unknown arm-reward distributions. These problems arise in many settings such as maximum entropy methods in natural language processing, and risk-averse decision-making, but current best-arm identification techniques fail in these domains. We propose a new approach, that combines functional estimation and arm elimination, to tackle this problem. This method achieves provably efficient performance guarantees. In addition, we illustrate this method on a number of important functionals in risk management and information theory, and refine our generic theoretical results in those cases

Exploration vs Exploitation vs Safety: Risk-averse Multi-Armed Bandits

Motivated by applications in energy management, this paper presents the Multi-Armed Risk-Aware Bandit (MARAB) algorithm. With the goal of limiting the exploration of risky arms, MARAB takes as arm quality its conditional value at risk. When the user-supplied risk level goes to 0, the arm quality tends toward the essential infimum of the arm distribution density, and MARAB tends toward the MIN multi-armed bandit algorithm, aimed at the arm with maximal minimal value. As a first contribution, this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the MIN algorithm under mild assumptions, establishing its robustness comparatively to UCB. The analysis is supported by extensive experimental validation of MIN and MARAB compared to UCB and state-of-art risk-aware MAB algorithms on artificial and real-world problems.Comment: 16 page

Risk Aversion in Finite Markov Decision Processes Using Total Cost Criteria and Average Value at Risk

In this paper we present an algorithm to compute risk averse policies in Markov Decision Processes (MDP) when the total cost criterion is used together with the average value at risk (AVaR) metric. Risk averse policies are needed when large deviations from the expected behavior may have detrimental effects, and conventional MDP algorithms usually ignore this aspect. We provide conditions for the structure of the underlying MDP ensuring that approximations for the exact problem can be derived and solved efficiently. Our findings are novel inasmuch as average value at risk has not previously been considered in association with the total cost criterion. Our method is demonstrated in a rapid deployment scenario, whereby a robot is tasked with the objective of reaching a target location within a temporal deadline where increased speed is associated with increased probability of failure. We demonstrate that the proposed algorithm not only produces a risk averse policy reducing the probability of exceeding the expected temporal deadline, but also provides the statistical distribution of costs, thus offering a valuable analysis tool