5,417 research outputs found
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoringRules
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future
events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology,
economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative
statistical models and data sources can be used to produce probabilistic
forecasts. Hence, evaluating and selecting among competing methods is an
important task. The scoringRules package for R provides functionality for
comparative evaluation of probabilistic models based on proper scoring rules,
covering a wide range of situations in applied work. This paper discusses
implementation and usage details, presents case studies from meteorology and
economics, and points to the relevant background literature
Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease
A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulationâoptimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America
Statistical and Computational Tradeoff in Genetic Algorithm-Based Estimation
When a Genetic Algorithm (GA), or a stochastic algorithm in general, is
employed in a statistical problem, the obtained result is affected by both
variability due to sampling, that refers to the fact that only a sample is
observed, and variability due to the stochastic elements of the algorithm. This
topic can be easily set in a framework of statistical and computational
tradeoff question, crucial in recent problems, for which statisticians must
carefully set statistical and computational part of the analysis, taking
account of some resource or time constraints. In the present work we analyze
estimation problems tackled by GAs, for which variability of estimates can be
decomposed in the two sources of variability, considering some constraints in
the form of cost functions, related to both data acquisition and runtime of the
algorithm. Simulation studies will be presented to discuss the statistical and
computational tradeoff question.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure
Performance of the estimators of stable law parameters
In this paper, we discuss the issue of estimation of the parameters of stable laws. We present an overview of the known methods and compare them on samples of different sizes and for different values of the parameters. Performance tables are provided.Stable distribution, Simulation, Random variable
Ensemble Kalman methods for high-dimensional hierarchical dynamic space-time models
We propose a new class of filtering and smoothing methods for inference in
high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, spatio-temporal state-space models.
The main idea is to combine the ensemble Kalman filter and smoother, developed
in the geophysics literature, with state-space algorithms from the statistics
literature. Our algorithms address a variety of estimation scenarios, including
on-line and off-line state and parameter estimation. We take a Bayesian
perspective, for which the goal is to generate samples from the joint posterior
distribution of states and parameters. The key benefit of our approach is the
use of ensemble Kalman methods for dimension reduction, which allows inference
for high-dimensional state vectors. We compare our methods to existing ones,
including ensemble Kalman filters, particle filters, and particle MCMC. Using a
real data example of cloud motion and data simulated under a number of
nonlinear and non-Gaussian scenarios, we show that our approaches outperform
these existing methods
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