Asset Allocation with Aversion to Parameter Uncertainty: A Minimax Regression Approach

This paper takes a minimax regression approach to incorporate aversion to parameter uncertainty into the mean-variance model. The uncertainty-averse minimax mean-variance portfolio is obtained by minimizing with respect to the unknown weights the upper bound of the usual quadratic risk function over a fuzzy ellipsoidal set. Beyond the existing approaches, our methodology offers three main advantages: first, the resulting optimal portfolio can be interpreted as a Bayesian mean-variance portfolio with the least favorable prior density, and this result allows for a comprehensive comparison with traditional uncertainty-neutral Bayesian mean-variance portfolios. Second, the minimax mean-variance portfolio has a shrinkage expression, but its performance does not necessarily lie within those of the two reference portfolios. Third, we provide closed form expressions for the standard errors of the minimax mean-variance portfolio weights and statistical significance of the optimal portfolio weights can be easily conducted. Empirical applications show that incorporating aversion to parameter uncertainty leads to more stable optimal portfolios that outperform traditional uncertainty-neutral Bayesian mean-variance portfolios.Asset allocation, estimation error, aversion to uncertainty, min-imax regression, Bayesian mean-variance portfolios, least favorable prior

Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory

[EN] The present research proposes a novel methodology to solve the problems faced by investors who take into consideration different investment criteria in a fuzzy context. The approach extends the stochastic mean-variance model to a fuzzy multiobjective model where liquidity is considered to quantify portfolio's performance, apart from the usual metrics like return and risk. The uncertainty of the future returns and the future liquidity of the potential assets are modelled employing trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The decision process of the proposed approach considers that portfolio selection is a multidimensional issue and also some realistic constraints applied by investors. Particularly, this approach optimizes the expected return, the risk and the expected liquidity of the portfolio, considering bound constraints and cardinality restrictions. As a result, an optimization problem for the constraint portfolio appears, which is solved by means of the NSGA-II algorithm. This study defines the credibilistic Sortino ratio and the credibilistic STARR ratio for selecting the optimal portfolio. An empirical study on the S&P100 index is included to show the performance of the model in practical applications. The results obtained demonstrate that the novel approach can beat the index in terms of return and risk in the analyzed period, from 2008 until 2018.García García, F.; González-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2020). Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory. Technological and Economic Development of Economy (Online). 26(6):1165-1186. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.13189S11651186266Acerbi, C., & Tasche, D. (2002). On the coherence of expected shortfall. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1487-1503. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2Ahmed, A., Ali, R., Ejaz, A., & Ahmad, I. (2018). 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Index tracking optimization with cardinality constraint: a performance comparison of genetic algorithms and tabu search heuristics. Neural Computing and Applications, 30(8), 2625-2641. doi:10.1007/s00521-017-2882-2García, F., Guijarro, F., Oliver, J., & Tamošiūnienė, R. (2018). HYBRID FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK TO PREDICT PRICE DIRECTION IN THE GERMAN DAX-30 INDEX. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(6), 2161-2178. doi:10.3846/tede.2018.6394Goel, A., Sharma, A., & Mehra, A. (2018). Index tracking and enhanced indexing using mixed conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 335, 361-380. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2017.12.015González-Bueno, J. (2019). Optimización multiobjetivo para la selección de carteras a la luz de la teoría de la credibilidad. Una aplicación en el mercado integrado latinoamericano. Editorial Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.Gupta, P., Inuiguchi, M., & Mehlawat, M. K. (2011). 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A multiobjective credibilistic portfolio selection model. Empirical study in the Latin American Integrated Market

[EN] This paper extends the stochastic mean-semivariance model to a fuzzy multiobjective model, where apart from return and risk, also liquidity is considered to measure the performance of a portfolio. Uncertainty of future return and liquidity of each asset are modeled using L-R type fuzzy numbers that belong to the power reference function family. The decision process of this novel approach takes into account not only the multidimensional nature of the portfolio selection problem but also realistic constraints by investors. Particularly, it optimizes the expected return, the semivariance and the expected liquidity of a given portfolio, considering cardinality constraint and upper and lower bound constraints. The constrained portfolio optimization problem resulting is solved using the algorithm NSGA-II. As a novelty, in order to select the optimal portfolio, this study defines the credibilistic Sortino ratio as the ratio between the credibilistic risk premium and the credibilistic semivariance. An empirical study is included to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the model in practical applications using a data set of assets from the Latin American Integrated Market.García García, F.; Gonzalez-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J. (2020). A multiobjective credibilistic portfolio selection model. Empirical study in the Latin American Integrated Market. Enterpreneurship and Sustainability Issues. 8(2):1027-1046. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.8.2(62)S102710468

Comparative Evaluation of the Performance of Spans of Control Designs in Grain Supply Chains

A fuzzy multi-objective linear programming model is used to analyze the performances of three spans of control designs that are observed in the U.S grain industry. Performance of the grain supply chain increases with amount of control and compromise.Crop Production/Industries,

What is the cost of maximizing ESG performance in the portfolio selection strategy? The case of The Dow Jones Index average stocks

[EN] Portfolio selection is one of the main financial topics. The original portfolio selection problem dealt with the trade-off between return and risk, measured as the mean returns and the variance, respectively. For investors more variables other than return and risk are considered to select the stocks to be included in the portfolio. Nowadays, many investors include corporate social responsibility as one eligibility criterion. Additionally, other return and risk measures are being employed. All of this, together with further constraints such as portfolio cardinality, which mirror real-world demands by investors, have made the multicriteria portfolio selection problem to be NP-hard. To solve this problem, heuristics such as the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II have been developed. The aim of this paper is to analyse the trade-off between return, risk and corporate social responsibility. To this end, we construct pareto efficient portfolios using a fuzzy multicriteria portfolio selection model with real-world constraints. The model is applied on a set of 28 stocks which are constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index. The analysis shows that portfolios scoring higher in corporate social responsibility obtain lower returns. As of the risk, the riskier portfolios are those with extreme (high or low) corporate social responsibility scores. Finally, applying the proposed portfolio selection methodology, it is possible to build investment portfolios that dominate the benchmark. That is, socially responsible portfolios, measured by ESG scores, must not necessarily be penalized in terms of return or risk.García García, F.; Gankova-Ivanova, T.; González-Bueno, J.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2022). What is the cost of maximizing ESG performance in the portfolio selection strategy? The case of The Dow Jones Index average stocks. Enterpreneurship and Sustainability Issues. 9(4):178-192. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2022.9.3(9)1781929

Design of demand driven return supply chain for high-tech products

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to design a responsive network for after-sale services of high-tech products. Design/methodology/approach: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and weighted max-min approach are integrated to solve a fuzzy goal programming model. Findings: Uncertainty is an important characteristic of reverse logistics networks, and the level of uncertainty increases with the decrease of the products’ life-cycle. Research limitations/implications: Some of the objective functions of our model are simplified to deal with non-linearities. Practical implications: Designing after-sale services networks for high-tech products is an overwhelming task, especially when the external environment is characterized by high levels of uncertainty and dynamism. This study presents a comprehensive modeling approach to simplify this task. Originality/value: Consideration of multiple objectives is rare in reverse logistics network design literature. Although the number of multi-objective reverse logistics network design studies has been increasing in recent years, the last two objective of our model is unique to this research area.Peer Reviewe