Specifying DHW heat demand profiles according to operational data: enhancing quality of a DH system model

For a DH network a meticulous analysis is required to detect a correlation of a reduction in energy demand from one year to another. The factors, which lead to such inconsistency, force an energy company (1) to modernize equipment at a consumer side and (2) to lower network operating temperatures. It results into so called fourth generation district heating (4GDH). The current research focuses on large-scale DH systems and DHW as second largest share of heat demand. The heat delays, thermal inertia and DHW consumption patterns are specified further since they might represent a natural heating accumulator. In this case, daily flow changes are considered, as they influence a DH system performance and desirable TES capacity. However, more precise profiles can be achieved by detecting the actual flow curve, and measuring the temperature difference between substation supply and return line. The dimensioning of DH systems requires comprehensive understanding of simultaneity factors. Thus, we consider substations with DHW preparation to choose the optimal size of the heat distribution network according to the new method. Case study is a DH system in Omsk, which includes residential houses (both SH and DHW coverage), and university buildings (more demand results from process heat). The operation of the system was studied for the period from the 1st of January to 31st of December 2020. We suggest a TES with a capacity of 0.04 MWh; based on the traditional temperature range, the volume is about 0.5 m3. Daily compensation time is 2-3 hours, when there is a reduction in the supply flow rate of 1500 t/h with minimum DH plant make-up. The entire DH system requires about 400 t of hot water make-up to reach the quasi-steady state conditions after the night DHW shutdown. Using the threshold of the traditional model, it hardly fits an operational value - it is better set according to novel method (0.1 MW). For similar relations between circulation and DHW flow rates, the systems with a HE result in higher circulating flows than the substations with no one. The consumer benefit from consuming DHW and heat according to more accurate profiles accounts 1.72 billion USD. It is quantified by considering avoiding using a back-up electricity source to ensure DHW service when a DH plant supplies enough heat. Moreover, if a TES is controlled according to the method detailed, it alleviates the stress for intermittent operation by compensating the transients of SH and DHW loads. 4GDH concept should be considered according to: (1) the operational data, (2) new DHW demand assessments, and (3) using TES to buffer peaks

Single-level management of social-economic systems based on production function

Objective: to develop a single-level optimization approach to the management of socio-economic systems.Methods: methods of system analysis, econometric method of factor analysis of dependencies, optimization methods. Results: a single-level optimization approach to the management of socio-economic systems, including their analysis and synthesis of management decisions, is presented. It contains the construction of partial and integral indicators of the system functioning, built on the basis of communication models of factor and effective signs, representing the production functions. The expected values (norms, standards) for the system operation results are determined according to communication models. Synthesis of managerial decisions is to find the specified levels of the state and impact factors, in which the actual values of the effective signs coincide with the standards. Visualization of the approach is presented in the form of cybernetic and process models.Scientific novelty: the peculiarity of the presented approach is a combination of two stages: the stage of socio-economic systems analysis, which includes defining the specific and integral performance indicators, designed by the author’s method and forming the given system development trajectory based on the constructed models of its state and functioning; and the stage of synthesis of managerial decisions, which is generally reduced to the problem of multi-criteria optimization. Practical significance: the approach can be used as a basis for improving the management of socio-economic systems at the level of a region, municipality or individual economic entity

Black-Swan Type Catastrophes and Antifragility/Supra-resilience of Urban Socio-Technical Infrastructures

This paper may be one of the first attempts dealing with the problem of creating, providing and maintaining antifragility of systems of interdependent urban critical infrastructures (CI) in the wake of black-swan type technological, ecological, economic or social catastrophes occurring in a municipality. A synonym is offered to describe antifragility from a positive psychology perspective, formulating the problem as the supraresilience problem. A brief description is given of the developed innovative approach for creating a supraresilient city/region using black-swan catastrophe and the antifragility concepts. Resilience metrics are formulated as well as methods of assessing damage, interdependence of infrastructures and convergent technologies and sciences needed for practical regional resilience and risk management of the system of systems (SoS) of interdependent urban critical infrastructures). © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Spatio-temporal correlation of extreme climate indices and river flood discharges

The occurrence of floods is strongly related to specific climatic conditions that favor extreme precipitation events. Although the impact of precipitation and temperature patterns on river flows is a well discussed topic in hydrology, few studies have focused on the rainfall and temperature extremes in their relation with peak discharges. This work presents a comparative analysis of Climate Change Indices (ETCCDI) annual time series, calculated using the NorthWestern Italy Optimal Interpolation (NWIOI) dataset, and annual maximum flows in the Piedmont Region. The Spearman’s rank correlation was used to determine which indices are temporally correlated with peak discharges, allowing to hypothesize the main physical processes involved in the production of floods. The correlation hypothesis was verified with the Spearman’s rank correlation test, considering a Student’s t-distribution with a 5% significance level. Moreover, the influence of climate variability on the tendency of annual maximum discharges was examined by correlating trends of climate indices with trends of the discharge series. These were calculated using the Theil-Sen slope estimator and tested with the Mann-Kendall test at the 5% significance level. The results highlight that while extreme precipitation indices are highly correlated with extreme discharges at the annual timescale, the interannual changes of extreme discharges may be better explained by the interannual changes of the total annual precipitation. This suggests that projections of the annual precipitation may be used as covariates for non-stationary flood frequency analysis

Multiple Roles for Landscape Ecology in Future Farming Systems

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue “Multiple Roles for Landscape Ecology in Future Farming Systems” that was published in Land. This book aims to inspire landscape ecologists to explore theories and practical tools that can assist in the planning, design, modification, and development of new farming landscapes with the best environmental, economic, and social outcomes in mind. It is also hoped that it will contribute toward developing land systems and land management practices for specific landscapes that meet the goals of increased nutritious food production in the face of market and climatic variability whilst reducing environmental impacts and enhancing natural capital and assisting to drive and support the transformative changes in the socioeconomic and environmental systems of rural areas required for future food production

Forests for a Better Future Sustainability, Innovation and Interdisciplinarity

This book highlights the role of research in innovation and sustainability in the forest sector. The contributions included fall within the broad thematic areas of forest science and cover crucial topics such as biocontrol, forest fire risk, harvesting and logging practices, quantitative and qualitative assessments of forest products, urban forests, and wood treatments—topics that have also been addressed from an interdisciplinary perspective. The contributions also have practical applications, as they deal with the ecological and economic importance of forests and new technologies for the conservation, monitoring, and improvement of services and forest value

Regional Development Modeling: Theory and Practice

This volume contains a collection of papers presented at IIASA's conference on "Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Regional Development Modelling". Of the 50 papers presented , 26 were selected for publication, in such a way as to strike a balance between theory and application of regional systems analysis. The book is divided into seven parts. After an introduction, the second and third parts contain overviews of current modelling practice and planned economies. In the next two parts, the focus shifts to the theoretical problems encountered in structural and multi-objective analysis of regional systems. The final two sections contain examples of regional development models currently ready for use or in operation and analyze the success of these models in clarifying regional planning and policy problems

Responsible leadership : proceedings of the Corporate Responsibility Research (CRR) 2009 Conference

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The Nature, Causes, Effects and Mitigation of Climate Change on the Environment

This book examines global warming and climate change over the past five decades in mainly subtropical and tropical countries. The amount and types of changes in these countries vary with the environment but are often less than those occurring in the Arctic and northern countries. Chapters address such topics as the controversy surrounding global warming, the effects of climate change on agriculture, changes in land use and hydrology, and more