Towards Identifying and closing Gaps in Assurance of autonomous Road vehicleS - a collection of Technical Notes Part 1

This report provides an introduction and overview of the Technical Topic Notes (TTNs) produced in the Towards Identifying and closing Gaps in Assurance of autonomous Road vehicleS (Tigars) project. These notes aim to support the development and evaluation of autonomous vehicles. Part 1 addresses: Assurance-overview and issues, Resilience and Safety Requirements, Open Systems Perspective and Formal Verification and Static Analysis of ML Systems. Part 2: Simulation and Dynamic Testing, Defence in Depth and Diversity, Security-Informed Safety Analysis, Standards and Guidelines

Improving adaptation and interpretability of a short-term traffic forecasting system

Traffic management is being more important than ever, especially in overcrowded big cities with over-pollution problems and with new unprecedented mobility changes. In this scenario, road-traffic prediction plays a key role within Intelligent Transportation Systems, allowing traffic managers to be able to anticipate and take the proper decisions. This paper aims to analyse the situation in a commercial real-time prediction system with its current problems and limitations. The analysis unveils the trade-off between simple parsimonious models and more complex models. Finally, we propose an enriched machine learning framework, Adarules, for the traffic prediction in real-time facing the problem as continuously incoming data streams with all the commonly occurring problems in such volatile scenario, namely changes in the network infrastructure and demand, new detection stations or failure ones, among others. The framework is also able to infer automatically the most relevant features to our end-task, including the relationships within the road network. Although the intention with the proposed framework is to evolve and grow with new incoming big data, however there is no limitation in starting to use it without any prior knowledge as it can starts learning the structure and parameters automatically from data. We test this predictive system in different real-work scenarios, and evaluate its performance integrating a multi-task learning paradigm for the sake of the traffic prediction task.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Egocentric Vision-based Future Vehicle Localization for Intelligent Driving Assistance Systems

Predicting the future location of vehicles is essential for safety-critical applications such as advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving. This paper introduces a novel approach to simultaneously predict both the location and scale of target vehicles in the first-person (egocentric) view of an ego-vehicle. We present a multi-stream recurrent neural network (RNN) encoder-decoder model that separately captures both object location and scale and pixel-level observations for future vehicle localization. We show that incorporating dense optical flow improves prediction results significantly since it captures information about motion as well as appearance change. We also find that explicitly modeling future motion of the ego-vehicle improves the prediction accuracy, which could be especially beneficial in intelligent and automated vehicles that have motion planning capability. To evaluate the performance of our approach, we present a new dataset of first-person videos collected from a variety of scenarios at road intersections, which are particularly challenging moments for prediction because vehicle trajectories are diverse and dynamic.Comment: To appear on ICRA 201

SENATUS: An Approach to Joint Traffic Anomaly Detection and Root Cause Analysis

In this paper, we propose a novel approach, called SENATUS, for joint traffic anomaly detection and root-cause analysis. Inspired from the concept of a senate, the key idea of the proposed approach is divided into three stages: election, voting and decision. At the election stage, a small number of \nop{traffic flow sets (termed as senator flows)}senator flows are chosen\nop{, which are used} to represent approximately the total (usually huge) set of traffic flows. In the voting stage, anomaly detection is applied on the senator flows and the detected anomalies are correlated to identify the most possible anomalous time bins. Finally in the decision stage, a machine learning technique is applied to the senator flows of each anomalous time bin to find the root cause of the anomalies. We evaluate SENATUS using traffic traces collected from the Pan European network, GEANT, and compare against another approach which detects anomalies using lossless compression of traffic histograms. We show the effectiveness of SENATUS in diagnosing anomaly types: network scans and DoS/DDoS attacks