Looking for big money in the grey zone. Simulation of High Yield Investment Programs strategies

High Yield Investment Programs (HYIPs) are online versions of a Ponzi scheme, a fraud that offers extremely high interest rates to attract investors – and pays them up to the moment when HYIP owner decides to run away with the money accumulated in the account. This article presents a simulation focused on the connections between investments in appealing websites, advertising, and runaway strategies to explore and describe one of the grey zone areas. The model is based to a large extent on real-life data acquired from HYIP monitors. In this paper, we have proven that advertising and layout have a great impact on an HYIP’s balance. Moreover, most HYIPs are capable of gaining similar balance; however, there are also conservative strategies that significantly reduce profits

Trading System Development on Foreign Exchange Market

Developing a system/strategy to earn stable profits in Forex market is always widely concerned by traders. In order to give the field traders a better opportunity to earn profits, a system was developed being aimed at Forex market. The trading system on Forex market was based on KDJ and MACD indicator, pattern analysis and evolutionary analysis. The system/strategy shown considerable feasibility in operation and capability in profit-gaining

Algorithmic Trading and Investment System Development

The purpose of this Interactive Qualifying Project (IQP) is to equip the team members with information and experience with stock market automatic trading. The project combined the work of three different trading strategies that were implemented into a system of systems to create a trading portfolio. Each system had its own parameters and time frames that collectively simulated trades with artificial money. This research paper describes, analyzes and tests each system separately, as well as the whole system of systems

Crop updates 2006 - Farming Systems

This session covers nineteen papers from different authors: SOIL AND NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT 1. Inve$tigating fertili$er inve$tment, Wayne Pluske, Nutrient Management Systems 2. KASM, the potassium in Agricultural System Model,Bill Bowden and Craig Scanlan, DAWA Northam and UWA, School of Earth and Geographical Sciences 3. Long term productivity and economic benefits of subsurface acidity management from surface and subsurface liming, Stephen Davies, Chris Gazey and Peter Tozer, Department of Agriculture 4. Furrow and ridges to prevent waterlogging, Dr Derk Bakker, Department of Agriculture 5. Nitrous oxide emissions from a cropped soil in Western Australia, Louise Barton1, David Gatter2, Renee Buck1, Daniel Murphy1, Christoph Hinz1and Bill Porter2 1School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, 2Department of Agriculture GROWER DECISIONS 6. Managing the unmanageable, Bill Bowden Department of Agriculture 7. Review of climate model summaries reported in Department of Agriculture’s Season Outlook, Meredith Fairbanks, Department of Agriculture 8. Mapping the frost risk in Western Australia, Nicolyn Short and Ian Foster, Department of Agriculture 9. .35 kg/ha.day and other myths, James Fisher, Doug Abrecht and Mario D’Antuono, Department of Agriculture 10. Gaining with growers – Lessons from a successful alliance of WA Grower Groups, Tracey M. Gianatti, Grower Group Alliance 11. WA Agribusiness Trial Network Roundup – 2005, Paul Carmody, Local Farmer Group Network, UWA 12. Drivers of no-till adoption, Frank D’Emdenabc, Rick Llewellynabdand Michael Burtonb,aCRC Australian Weed Management; bSchool of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UWA. cDepartment of Agriculture, dCSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Adelaide PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, PRECISION AGRICULTURE AND SUSTAINABILITY 13. Maintaining wheat and lupin yields using phase pastures and shielded sprayers to manage increasing herbicide resistance, Caroline Peek, Nadine Eva, Chris Carter and Megan Abrahams, Department of Agriculture 14. Analaysis of a wheat-pasture rotation in the 330mm annual rainfall zone using the STEP model, Andrew Blake and Caroline Peek, Department of Agriculture 15. Response to winter drought by wheat on shallow soil with low seeding rate and wide row spacing, Paul Blackwell1, Sylvain Pottier2and Bill Bowden1 1 Department of Agriculture; 2Esitpa (France) 16. How much yield variation do you need to justify zoning inputs? Michael Robertson and Greg Lyle, CSIRO Floreat, Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture; Lisa Brennan, CSIRO Brisbane 17. Automatic guidance and wheat row position: On-row versus between-row seeding at various rates of banded P fertilisers, Tony J. Vyn1, Simon Teakle2, Peter Norris3and Paul Blackwell4,1Purdue University, USA; 2Landmark; 3Agronomy for Profit; 4 Department of Agriculture 18. Assessing the sustainability of high production systems (Avon Agricultural Systems Project), Jeff Russell and James Fisher, Department of Agriculture, Roy Murray-Prior and Deb Pritchard, Muresk Institute; Mike Collins, ex WANTFA, 19. The application of precision agriculture techniques to assess the effectiveness of raised beds on saline land in WA, Derk Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Rob Hetherington, Andrew Van Burgel and Cliff Spann, Department of Agricultur

Improved water and land management in the Ethiopian highlands: its impact on downstream stakeholders dependent on the Blue Nile; Intermediate Results Dissemination Workshop February 5-6, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

River basin management, Watershed management, Farming systems, Water balance, Reservoirs, Water supply, Irrigation requirements, Irrigation programs, Simulation models, Sedimentation, Rainfall-Runoff relationships, Erosion, Soil water, Water balance, Soil conservation, Institutions, Organizations, Policy, Water governance, International waters, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Research and Extension Capabilities: Program Economists in New South Wales Agriculture

In 1997 the economists in NSW Agriculture conducting applied economics research at its larger research stations were assigned to the Department's major programs of the Department. This report reviews some of their achievements since that time. The report begins with a section describing the role of Program Economists and their management. Then follows a brief review of the main areas of interest of each of the twelve economists. A large section of the report is devoted to outlining major areas of research and extension where program economists, often working cooperatively, have made a significant contribution. These areas include: Analyses of market conditions for agricultural products; Field crop economics; Grazing and pasture economics; Integrated weed and pest management economics; Farming systems economics; Provision of farm management information; Research and extension evaluation and policy. Aspects reviewed in these areas included the key findings from research, research objectives, future directions of research and for each area, a selection of the most significant publications produced by program economists. The final section of the report is a listing of publications by program economists since 1997. Since then they have written 9 book chapters, 57 refereed journal papers, 23 refereed research bulletins, 40 papers in conference proceedings, 94 invited and contributed conference papers, 56 miscellaneous reports and work papers; and 43 farm management papers.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

The impacts of cash transfer programs on rural livelihoods: a study of Caboclos in the Brazilian Amazon estuary region

Rural households that rely on agricultural and natural resources for their livelihoods have been exposed to increasing socio-economic and climatic challenges over the past few decades, which requires urgent scientific exploration to effectively inform policies and other interventions. This dissertation investigates the rural livelihood of smallholders and the impacts of cash transfer programs through the use of empirical analysis and agent-based modelling and simulation (ABM) of the Caboclos in the Brazilian Amazon estuary region. The findings in this dissertation deepen the understanding of the livelihood dynamics of small farming households, provide insight about modelling uncertainty, and evaluate the impacts of policies and other approaches meant to alleviate poverty and enhance resilience. First, the empirical patterns of rural livelihoods, with a focus on the heterogeneous impacts from cash transfer programs, have been captured through statistical analysis of a household survey. Households were classified based on the amount of cash transfer and dependence on cash transfers to demonstrate the heterogeneity in this significant income of rural livelihoods. The results show the high level of heterogeneity among the value of cash transfers that households receive and in the households’ level of reliance on this stipend. Results also illustrate the differences among household characteristics and their significance regarding the degree of household reliance on cash transfers. Second, we constructed an ABM with an ensemble approach to represent the small farming households and simulate their livelihood outcomes with government cash transfer programs under eight experiments that differentiate main livelihood factors. The three ensemble members reflect a range of household behaviors, which include Max Profit (optimizing net economic returns), Max Leisure (pursuing optimal leisure time once subsistence is met), and Subsistence First (a strategy that maintains subsistence requirement first and then pursues market profit). Sensitivity and post-hoc analyses reveal the variability in the outcomes among three decision regimes, where the decision regime proves to be the most significant factor for livelihood outcomes at both the community level and individual level. The mere presence of cash transfers largely increases income and the equality of income distribution, of which the most drastic change occurs in the Max Leisure decision regime. However, household characteristics influence household livelihood outcomes differently within each decision regime. Third, we explored rural household livelihood and poverty dynamics using the ABM through the lens of development resilience. Various external shocks were applied to the household agents and their livelihood dynamics, particularly their resilience attribute, were analyzed. Our results first support the existence of the poverty trap and the relatively better-off zone as the “basin of attraction” that were proposed in resilience theory. Results from the simulation also indicate that external shocks, although similar in duration and magnitude, have significantly different impacts on livelihood resilience, with climate shocks being the most influential. Government cash transfer programs are more likely to be effective with a big initial capital boost, and a Subsistence First strategy, relative to Max Profit and Max Leisure strategies, is most likely to be resilient for vulnerable households, but not in households who are close to being trapped