Long-run urban dynamics: understanding local housing market change in London

Recently, a literature has emerged using empirical techniques to study the evolution of international cities over many centuries; however, few studies examine long-run change within cities. Conventional models and concepts are not always appropriate and data issues make long-run neighbourhood analysis particularly problematic. This paper addresses some of these points. First, it discusses why the analysis of long-run urban change is important for modern urban policy and considers the most important concepts. Second, it constructs a novel data set at the micro level, which allows consistent comparisons of London neighbourhoods in 1881 and 2001. Third, the paper models some of the key factors that affected long-run change, including the role of housing. There is evidence that the relative social positions of local urban areas persist over time but, nevertheless, at fine spatial scales, local areas still exhibit change, arising from aggregate population dynamics, from advances in technology, and also from the effects of shocks, such as wars. In general, where small areas are considered, long-run changes are likely to be greater, because individuals are more mobile over short than long distances. Finally, the paper considers the implications for policy

Determinants of Iowa Cropland Cash Rental Rates: Testing Ricardian Rent Theory

Based on the Ricardian rent theory, this study employs the variable profit function to analyze the determinants of Iowa cropland cash rental rates using county-level panel data from 1987 to 2005. Accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelations, responses of local cash rental rates to changes in output prices and other exogenous variables are estimated. We find that Iowa cash rental rates are largely determined by output/input prices, soil quality, relative location, and other county-specific factors. Cash rents go up by $79 for a$1 increase in corn price in the short run. The marginal value of cropland quality, as represented by row-crop corn suitability rating index, is about $1.05. Ethanol plants are not found to have a significant local effect on cash rental rates, impacting local rental markets mainly through the national futures price. Scale of the local livestock industry and adoption of genetically engineered crops have significant impacts on local cash rental rates. In addition, changes in crop output prices are found to have long-run effects on cash rental rates. The long-run change in cash rents is approximately$109-$114 for a$1 change in corn price and is reached in about four years. Our research may be viewed as a test of the Ricardian rent theory. We find limited support for the theory.Land Economics/Use,

Interdisciplinarity: Building Bridges and Nurturing a Complex Ecology of Ideas

Abstract Much discussion of interdisciplinarity shows one or more of the following defects: 1. conceptual confusion - lack of a refined and consistent set of terms for analysing interdisciplinarity and its variants; 2. utopianism - lack of realism about constraints and possibilities in the social organization of science; 3. monism - advocacy of a single simple organizational model, rather than a complex heterogeneous model with multiple niches, nodes and forms of interaction. The paper presents a more refined, realistic, and pluralistic approach to interdisciplinarity. It does this with special reference to development studies, whose interest in long-run change and common combination of a case-focus and policy-orientation guide it strongly to interdisciplinarity; and to problems raised by the dominant economics conception of itself as a self-sufficient alpha-status discipline. The paper conceptualizes a range of types of interdisciplinarity, and considers how far exemplars of each—such as social capital theory and entitlements analysis—offer ‘bridging capital’, accessible paths to effective social analysis

Trade competition and migration: Evidence from the quartz crisis

Foreign competition and technological change can both present threats to domestic industries, potentially resulting in out-migration from cities and regions where these industries are spatially agglomerated. In this paper, I study the migration effects of one such trade shock: The quartz crisis, which devastated the globally dominant Swiss watch industry in the 1970s. Using a differences-in-differences strategy, I show that this trade shock led to a rapid loss of population in affected areas, and a long-run change in growth patterns. This contrasts with many other studies of large trade shocks, which find little migration response. I highlight three key factors that distinguish this shock from others and may explain the divergence: (1) the crisis negatively impacted a key export industry while generating no offsetting gains, (2) the affected labor markets were highly non-diversified, and (3) the affected workers were highly mobile

Convergence, trade and industrial policy: Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay in the international economy, 1900–1980

This paper discusses the economic performance of three Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay) from a comparative perspective, using as a benchmark a group of four developed countries (France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). The focus is on the relative performance within the region and between the Latin American countries and the developed countries in the period 1900-1980. The paper argues that Argentina and Uruguay benefited from a privileged position in international markets at the beginning of the 20th century and this allowed them to converge. However, they failed to adjust to the major long-run change in the pattern of world trade brought about by World War I and the Great Depression, which implied a persistent decline of their export markets. On the other hand, Brazil, after having been much less successful until 1930, grew at higher rates thereafter based on rapid structural change and the building up of competitive advantages in new industrial sectors. The more vigorous Brazilian policy for industrialization and export diversification may explain why Brazil succeeded in changing its pattern of specialization, while Argentina and Uruguay were locked in to the old pattern. A typology of convergence regimes is suggested based on the growth experience of these countries

Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade

We build a micro-founded two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which trade responds more to a cut in tariffs in the long run than in the short run. The model introduces a time element to the fixed-variable cost trade-off in a heterogeneous producer trade model. Thus, the dynamics of aggregate trade adjustment arise from producer-level decisions to invest in lowering their future variable export costs. The model is calibrated to match salient features of new exporter growth and provides a new estimate of the exporting technology. At the micro level, we find that new exporters commonly incur substantial losses in the first three years in the export market and that export profits are backloaded. At the macro level, the slow export expansion at the producer level leads to sluggishness in the aggregate response of exports to a change in tariffs, with a long-run trade elasticity that is 2.9 times the short-run trade elasticity. We estimate the welfare gains from trade from a cut in tariffs, taking into account the transition period. While the intensity of trade expands slowly, consumption overshoots its new steady-state level, so the welfare gains are almost 15 times larger than the long-run change in consumption. Models without this dynamic export decision underestimate the gains to lowering tariffs, particularly when constrained to also match the gradual expansion of aggregate trade flows

Sunk costs and the dynamics of creative industries

This chapter examines the long-run evolution of modern entertainment industries such as the film and music industries. It investigates ways to conceptualise and quantify the subsequent waves of creative destruction, and investigates specifically how sunk costs affect the evolution of the industry through its interaction with variety, market integration, product differentiation and price discrimination, and how old entertainment formats almost never became extinct. It finds that within this framework, four economic tendencies shaped the entertainment industries evolution: first, endogenous sunk costs often led to a competitive escalation of production expenditures, which we call ‘quality races’, which increased industrial concentration. Second, the fact that marginal revenues largely equalled marginal profits led to extreme vertical integration through ownership or revenue-sharing contracts, as well as to an oversupply of variety and a dual market structure with high-concept blockbuster products and low-budget niche products. Third, entertainment’s public good characteristics led to substantial income inequality among creative inputs and business models optimising exclusion possibilities in the value chain. Finally, the project-based character of entertainment production implied large intra- and inter-industry agglomeration benefits and often led to geographical concentration. Dynamic product differentiation allowed various old formats to survive the waves of creative destruction, albeit in much smaller incarnations

Testing for Parameter Instability using the R/S Statistic

This paper explores the use of the R/S statistic as a means of checking for parameter instability. The nature and properties of the statistic are described, and its behaviour and power in the context of three situations of structural change are examined. The results suggest that the R/S statistic has an ability to detect shifts in means and changes in the intercept of a regression relationship. Moreover, it is more powerful than the OLS variant of the well known cumulative sum of squares residual test for detecting unknown structural breaks in the cases involving the linear regression models that were examined. It would therefore seem to us that the application of the R/S statistic to the problem of testing for structural instability is worthy of further investigation.

The Industry Life Cycle and Acquisitions and Investment: Does Firm Organization Matter?

We examine the effect of financial dependence on acquisition and investment within existing industries by single-segment and conglomerate firms for industries undergoing different long run changes in industry conditions. Conglomerates and single-segment firms differ more in rates of within-industry acquisitions than in capital expenditure rates, which are similar across organizational type. In particular, 36 percent of within-industry growth by conglomerate firms in growth industries is from intra-industry acquisitions, compared to nine percent for single segment firms. Financial dependence, a deficit in a segment%u2019s internal financing, decreases the likelihood of within-industry acquisitions and opening new plants, especially for single-segment firms. These effects are mitigated for conglomerates in growth industries. The findings persist after controlling for firm size and segment productivity. Acquisitions lead to increased efficiency as plants acquired by conglomerate firms in growth industries increase in productivity post acquisition. The results are consistent with the comparative advantages of different firm organizations differing across long-run industry conditions.

The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates – evidence from consumer credit data

We use a new panel dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how consumer responded to the 2001 Federal income tax rebates. We estimate the monthly response of credit card payments, spending, and debt, exploiting the unique, randomized timing of the rebate disbursement. We find that, on average, consumers initially saved some of the rebate, by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt. But soon afterwards their spending increased, counter to the canonical Permanent-Income model. Spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained, whereas debt declined most (so saving rose most) for unconstrained consumers. More generally, the results suggest that there can be important dynamics in consumers’ response to “lumpy” increases in income like tax rebates, working in part through balance sheet (liquidity) mechanisms