Incremental Predictive Process Monitoring: How to Deal with the Variability of Real Environments

A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting

Inductive queries for a drug designing robot scientist

It is increasingly clear that machine learning algorithms need to be integrated in an iterative scientific discovery loop, in which data is queried repeatedly by means of inductive queries and where the computer provides guidance to the experiments that are being performed. In this chapter, we summarise several key challenges in achieving this integration of machine learning and data mining algorithms in methods for the discovery of Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSARs). We introduce the concept of a robot scientist, in which all steps of the discovery process are automated; we discuss the representation of molecular data such that knowledge discovery tools can analyse it, and we discuss the adaptation of machine learning and data mining algorithms to guide QSAR experiments

Evaluation of recommender systems in streaming environments

Evaluation of recommender systems is typically done with finite datasets. This means that conventional evaluation methodologies are only applicable in offline experiments, where data and models are stationary. However, in real world systems, user feedback is continuously generated, at unpredictable rates. Given this setting, one important issue is how to evaluate algorithms in such a streaming data environment. In this paper we propose a prequential evaluation protocol for recommender systems, suitable for streaming data environments, but also applicable in stationary settings. Using this protocol we are able to monitor the evolution of algorithms' accuracy over time. Furthermore, we are able to perform reliable comparative assessments of algorithms by computing significance tests over a sliding window. We argue that besides being suitable for streaming data, prequential evaluation allows the detection of phenomena that would otherwise remain unnoticed in the evaluation of both offline and online recommender systems.Comment: Workshop on 'Recommender Systems Evaluation: Dimensions and Design' (REDD 2014), held in conjunction with RecSys 2014. October 10, 2014, Silicon Valley, United State

Logical analysis of data as a tool for the analysis of probabilistic discrete choice behavior

Probabilistic Discrete Choice Models (PDCM) have been extensively used to interpret the behavior of heterogeneous decision makers that face discrete alternatives. The classification approach of Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) uses discrete optimization to generate patterns, which are logic formulas characterizing the different classes. Patterns can be seen as rules explaining the phenomenon under analysis. In this work we discuss how LAD can be used as the first phase of the specification of PDCM. Since in this task the number of patterns generated may be extremely large, and many of them may be nearly equivalent, additional processing is necessary to obtain practically meaningful information. Hence, we propose computationally viable techniques to obtain small sets of patterns that constitute meaningful representations of the phenomenon and allow to discover significant associations between subsets of explanatory variables and the output. We consider the complex socio-economic problem of the analysis of the utilization of the Internet in Italy, using real data gathered by the Italian National Institute of Statistics