Sea-level change: Living with uncertainty

Sea level change is a naturally occurring process. Since the last glacial maximum, some 18,000 years ago, de-glaciation has taken place and this natural global warming has led to sea-level rise of on average 120 m or so. At some times, pulses of melt water coming from large peri-glacial lakes led to rates of sea-level rise as high as 3 m per century. The rate slowed down some 7000 years ago and since then has been naturally fluctuating by only a few meters. The remaining global sea-level rise has been about 20 cm in the 20th century. Has this led to global disasters? The answer is no. If the projected rise over the 21st century is double what was seen in the 20th, is it likely that it will result in global disasters? Again, the answer is most likely no; human ingenuity, innovation and engineering, and the proper material and financial resources should solve local problems if and when they arrive, as they have in the 20th century (see the Dutch example). In this short and accessible monograph, Willem de Lange and Robert Carter describe and explain sea-level change, including the many remaining uncertainties in our full understanding of what exactly drives this change, and discuss the implications, mainly regarding coastal management. The monograph is intended for policy makers, but it should be informative for any educated reader. De Lange and Carter analyse the causes of sea-level change, and describe how it has been measured – with tide gauges over the past 100 to 150 years and from satellites over the past 30 years. Their key message is to recall that sea-level change is a local phenomenon, with high variability and multiple causes. In the 20th century, for a global average rise of 20 cm, there has been sea-level rise of up to twice that value in some places, but in others a drop of the same amount! Because of the melting of a large former ice cap over the Baltic area, the Earth’s viscous mantle is slowly deforming and as a result sea-level is decreasing in the North of the British Isles at the same time as it is rising on the south coast. Moreover, we have known since Darwin and understood since the plate tectonics revolution that atolls in the Pacific form over slowly subsiding volcanoes and will eventually drown (but at a slower ‘geological’ rate, due to thermal subsidence of the lithosphere on which they stand). In any case, the global average has no practical value in local or regional coastal management

Living with Uncertainty

The last few years have seen a major rethinking of some of the hallowed assumptions of range ecology and range management practice. This book examines the management of policy implications of this new ecological thinking for pastoral development in dryland areas. With examples drawn from all over Africa, the contributors examine the consequences of living with uncertainty for pastoral development planning, range and fodder management, drought responses, livestock marketing, resource tenure, institutional development and pastoral administration

Living with Uncertainty

The last few years have seen a major rethinking of some of the hallowed assumptions of range ecology and range management practice. This book examines the management of policy implications of this new ecological thinking for pastoral development in dryland areas. With examples drawn from all over Africa, the contributors examine the consequences of living with uncertainty for pastoral development planning, range and fodder management, drought responses, livestock marketing, resource tenure, institutional development and pastoral administration

Living With Peak Discharge Uncertainty: The Self-learning Dike

Although river dikes still play a key role for flood protection in the Netherlands\ud there is a growing interest for other measures to deal with larger peak discharges, such as\ud lowering or widening the floodplains. Regardless of the strategy chosen the assessment of\ud its effect on the flood risk depends on the peak discharge statistics. A problem here is that\ud the statistical analysis of peak discharges relies on probability distributions based on the\ud limited time series of extreme discharges. The extrapolation of these distributions are\ud subject to considerable uncertainty, because there is a measuring record of only about 100\ud years and the natural variability can be expected to change as a result of climate change.\ud This raises the question whether a more direct response to the effects of climate change is\ud possible. The natural variability of the peak discharge changes, the changes in this\ud variability due to e.g. climate change and the new statistical distribution can only be\ud established after the actual change has happened. Even with regular updates of the\ud statistical distributions it is inherent that the actions taken to reduce the flood risk are not\ud anticipatory but delayed. As an alternative, this paper presents an adaptive or so-called selflearning\ud approach to deal with the uncertainty in the peak discharge statistics. The\ud difference with the probabilistic design of flood defense works, which depends on the\ud analysis and prediction of uncertain peak discharges, is that the dike is adapted in direct\ud response to peak water levels exceeding the dike height minus a certain safety margin. The\ud results indicate that, on average, adaptive flood management based on observed peak water\ud levels is at least as safe as a probabilistic approach, which necessarily relies on uncertain\ud discharge statistics. Other advantages of the adaptive strategy are also obvious: the rule of\ud response is simple and easy to communicate to the public, and peak water levels are less\ud difficult to measure. In general the example demonstrates that flood management can be\ud based on a direct response to the effects of climate change, without tedious statistical\ud analysis of peak discharge records

Living Our Lives With Uncertainty

This is a look into how my life was during the Covid-19 pandemic. I think it is crazy how I am living through history and I want future generations to know how my life was during this pandemic. I hope that when people read my contribution to remember Covid-19 that they get a feel for how everyone had to live through 2020. I am grateful for all of the health care workers and for everyone doing their part and wearing their masks and social distancing

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards

Uncertainty in illness among people living with mental ill health - a mental health nursing perspective

Background: Uncertainty in illness is a well-known concept in health care literature. A considerable volume of research has investigated how people adapt to different health conditions and how the concept of uncertainty in illness relates to those populations. However, while there is substantial literature focusing on coping strategies and personal recovery, there is a paucity of research about uncertainty in illness among people living with mental ill health. Aims: To explore the concept of uncertainty in illness among mental health nurses and to provide an understanding of its relevance to people living with mental ill health. Method: Thematic analysis of a focus group of mental health nurses. Findings: Uncertainty in illness among people living with mental ill health exists and manifests itself in various ways: uncertainty in the context of loss, uncertainty as a stimulus for change and uncertainty as an integral part of the human experience and existence. Conclusions: Even though contemporary approaches in mental health nursing do not directly address uncertainty, the concept and its implications need to be considered and raised further among mental health professionals in order to improve support for people living with mental ill health in their process of personal recovery

Illness related uncertainty in the lives of people living with HIV

Section A This systematic literature review analysed twenty-three qualitative and quantitative studies investigating the experiences of illness uncertainty in the lives of people living with HIV. Specifically, the review aimed to identify sources of illness uncertainty for this population and the ways in which people living with HIV manage these uncertainties. These results were discussed within the frame of current theory and further areas of research were identified. Section B This is a cross-sectional online survey investigating the relationships between self-report measures of social environment (i.e. social support and experiences of discrimination), illness uncertainty and quality of life in an opportunity sample of people living with HIV. In line with theory, discrimination and social support were found to be differentially related to illness uncertainty. Furthermore, illness uncertainty was found to be related to quality of life. Clinical and theoretical implications as well as limitations to the study and future research were discussed

The changing determinants of UK young adults´ living arrangements

The postponement of partnership formation and parenthood in the context of an early average age at leaving home has resulted in increased heterogeneity in the living arrangements of young adults in the UK. More young adults now remain in the parental home, or live independently of the parental home but outside of a family. The extent to which these trends are explained by the increased immigration of foreign-born young adults, the expansion in higher education, and the increased economic insecurity faced by young adults are examined. Shared non-family living is particularly prominent among those with experience of higher education, whilst labour market uncertainty is associated with an extended period of co-residence with parents.higher education, labour market, NEET, non-family living, parental home, transition, young adulthood

“It gave me something big in my life to wonder and think about which took over the space … and not MS”: Managing well-being in multiple sclerosis through art-making

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2014 Informa UK Ltd.Background and aim: Individuals living with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) often face progressive loss of function, uncertainty and disruption to self-image and valued roles. Previous studies show that creative self-expression is valued by some people living with long-term illness, yet its meaning for people living with MS is unclear. This research study explored the meanings of leisure-based visual art-making for people living with MS. Method: This qualitative study followed guidelines for Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Single semi-structured interviews were conducted with five adults (2 males; 3 females; 40–65 years), recruited from MS Ireland. Findings: Participants valued art-making for contributing to a more satisfying way of life; for filling occupational voids and using time well. Deep immersion offered respite from worry about illness. Creative classes offered social camaraderie and opportunities for learning and development. Art-making processes and products were highly affirmative, increasing emotional well-being and promoting self-worth. Most felt that they expressed valued aspects of self through their art. Art-making appeared to assist with identity maintenance, accommodating functional losses associated with MS whilst opening “new doors”. Conclusion: Art-making offered a multi-faceted means of supporting identity and increasing fulfilment in lives that were restricted in many ways by MS