Forecasting scenarios for UK household expenditure and associated GHG emissions : Outlook to 2030

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Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

Energy efficiency improvements by households lead to rebound effects that offset the potential energy and emissions savings. Direct rebound effects result from increased demand for cheaper energy services, while indirect rebound effects result from increased demand for other goods and services that also require energy to provide. Research to date has focused upon the former, but both are important for climate change. This study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from seven measures that improve the energy efficiency of UK dwellings. The methodology is based upon estimates of the income elasticity and greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of 16 categories of household goods and services, and allows for the embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves. Rebound effects are measured in GHG terms and relate to the adoption of these measures by an average UK household. The study finds that the rebound effects from these measures are typically in the range 5-15% and arise mostly from indirect effects. This is largely because expenditure on gas and electricity is more GHG-intensive than expenditure on other goods and services. However, the anticipated shift towards a low carbon electricity system in the UK may lead to much larger rebound effects

DESIGN AS A FUNCTIONAL LEADER: A case study of Philips to investigate the potential of design as a leading functional discipline

This research investigates the role of design as a functional leader in multinational industries, to drive innovation successfully at a strategic level. It involved a detailed case study of the innovation process, and practices within Philips Design based in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, where design is a key decision making function within the company but not yet recognised as a leading discipline at strategic level. Philips Design wanted to use design research to build an integrated map of its actual practices and correlate these with other corporate innovation practices, to help establish strategic recognition for their value. The doctoral challenge was to explicate the process and determine whether the findings have generic capacity to support the role of design as a functional leading discipline. The investigation integrates an iterative loop of; abductive reasoning of design thinking and inductive reasoning of management thinking in an action research cycle. The case study was part of an empirical enquiry, where the researcher became a participatory observer at Philips Design, conducting one-on-one interviews for data collection and refining their analysis using a Delphi Technique. Three other multinational organisations were explored to take into account how each perceives the contribution of design and the different roles it plays in their organisation. Data triangulation was also used to validate findings with a third party expert. The research contributes to knowledge by confirming the conditions for design to act as a leading functional discipline. It shows that design cannot be the only functional lead for a multinational organisation. It identifies the major reason for this as the difference between thinkers trying to find viable options for the future and practitioners trying to defend the core business in their organisation, resulting in a gap between strategy and operation. The research further elaborates on the reasons for the gap to exist through qualitative conceptual relationships between designer behaviour and organisational culture in the different innovation cycles that exist in the organisation

Turning lights into flights: estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

Energy efficiency improvements by households lead to rebound effects that offset the potential energy and emissions savings. Direct rebound effects result from increased demand for cheaper energy services, while indirect rebound effects result from increased demand for other goods and services that also require energy to provide. Research to date has focused upon the former, but both are important for climate change. This study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from seven measures that improve the energy efficiency of UK dwellings. The methodology is based upon estimates of the income elasticity and greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of 16 categories of household goods and services, and allows for the embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves. Rebound effects are measured in GHG terms and relate to the adoption of these measures by an average UK household. The study finds that the rebound effects from these measures are typically in the range 5-15% and arise mostly from indirect effects. This is largely because expenditure on gas and electricity is more GHG-intensive than expenditure on other goods and services. However, the anticipated shift towards a low carbon electricity system in the UK may lead to much larger rebound effects

Estimating rebound effects from technical energy efficiency improvements by UK households

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Incorporating jurisdiction issues into an analysis of carbon attributable to Welsh final consumption under different economic conditions: an integrated IO and CGE analysis

This paper considers the combined use of regional input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) methods to examine regional pollution problems from different consumption and production orientated perspectives. The first stage of the analysis involves using a regional input-output framework and data derived on direct CO2 (as carbon) generation by industry (and in household final consumption) to examine regional accountability for CO2 generation. In doing we consider an accounting method that permits greater accountability of regional private and public (household and government) final consumption as the main driver of regional carbon generation, while retaining focus on the local production, technology and consumption decisions that fall under the jurisdiction of regional policymakers. However, we go on to argue that a potential issue arising from the increasing focus on consumption-based „carbon footprint‟ type measures is that regional CO2 generation embodied in export production is attributed outside of the region, while regional consumers are likely to benefit from such production. We demonstrate our argument by using a regional CGE model to simulate the impacts of an increase in export demand for regional production on key macroeconomic variables, including GDP, employment and household consumption, as well as on different measures of CO2 attributable to regional consumption. In terms of the latter, we demonstrate how CGE model results may be used to create „post-shock‟ IO accounts to permit the calculation of CO2 generation under the various production and consumption accounting principles considered in the first part of the paper. Our empirical analyses focus on the case example of the Welsh regional economy and an anticipated increase in export demand for the output of one of the biggest polluting sectors, Iron and Steel production

Reconsidering the calculation and role of environmental footprints

Following the recent Copenhagen Climate Change conference, there has been discussion of the methods and underlying principles that inform climate change targets. Climate change targets following the Kyoto Protocol are broadly based on a production accounting principle (PAP). This approach focuses on emissions produced within given geographical boundaries. An alternative approach is a consumption accounting principle (CAP), where the focus is on emissions produced globally to meet consumption demand within the national (or regional) economy1. Increasingly popular environmental footprint measures, including ecological and carbon footprints, attempt to measure environmental impacts based on CAP methods. The perception that human consumption decisions lie at the heart of the climate change problem is the impetus driving pressure on policymakers for a more widespread use of CAP measures. At a global level of course, emissions accounted for under the production and consumption accounting principles would be equal. It is international trade that leads to differences in emissions under the two principles. This paper, the second in this special issue of the Fraser Commentary, examines how input-output accounting techniques may be applied to examine pollution generation under both of these accounting principles, focussing on waste and carbon generation in the Welsh economy as a case study. However, we take a different focus, arguing that the ‘domestic technology assumption’, taken as something of a mid-point in moving between production and consumption accounting in the first paper, may actually constitute a more useful focus for regional policymakers than full footprint analyses

The electricity generation mix in Scotland : the long and windy road?

This article reports on research funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) at the University of Strathclyde

Mapping rebound effects from sustainable behaviours: key concepts and literature review

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Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups

This study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement and behavioural change by UK households and explores how these effects vary with total expenditure. The methodology is based upon estimates of the expenditure elasticity and GHG intensity of 16 categories of goods and services, and allows for the capital cost and embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves. The study finds that rebound effects, in GHG terms, are modest (0-32%) for measures affecting domestic energy use, larger (25-65%) for measures affecting vehicle fuel use and very large (66-106%) for measures that reduce food waste. Furthermore, measures undertaken by low income households are associated with the largest rebound effects, with direct emissions forming a larger proportion of the total rebound effect for those households. Measures that are subsidised or affect highly taxed energy commodities may be less effective in reducing aggregate emissions. These findings highlight the importance of allowing for rebound effects within policy appraisals, as well as reinforcing the case for economy-wide carbon pricing. © 2014 Elsevier B.V