Sleep Mode Analysis via Workload Decomposition

The goal of this paper is to establish a general approach for analyzing queueing models with repeated inhomogeneous vacations. The server goes on for a vacation if the inactivity prolongs more than the vacation trigger duration. Once the system enters in vacation mode, it may continue for several consecutive vacations. At the end of a vacation, the server goes on another vacation, possibly with a different probability distribution; if during the previous vacation there have been no arrivals. However the system enters in vacation mode only if the inactivity is persisted beyond defined trigger duration. In order to get an insight on the influence of parameters on the performance, we choose to study a simple M/G/1 queue (Poisson arrivals and general independent service times) which has the advantage of being tractable analytically. The theoretical model is applied to the problem of power saving for mobile devices in which the sleep durations of a device correspond to the vacations of the server. Various system performance metrics such as the frame response time and the economy of energy are derived. A constrained optimization problem is formulated to maximize the economy of energy achieved in power save mode, with constraints as QoS conditions to be met. An illustration of the proposed methods is shown with a WiMAX system scenario to obtain design parameters for better performance. Our analysis allows us not only to optimize the system parameters for a given traffic intensity but also to propose parameters that provide the best performance under worst case conditions

Promoting Bicycle Commuter Safety, Research Report 11-08

We present an overview of the risks associated with cycling to emphasize the need for safety. We focus on the application of frameworks from social psychology to education, one of the 5 Es—engineering, education, enforcement, encouragement, and evaluation. We use the structure of the 5 Es to organize information with particular attention to engineering and education in the literature review. Engineering is essential because the infrastructure is vital to protecting cyclists. Education is emphasized since the central focus of the report is safety

It's Time for Summer: An Analysis of Recent Policy and Funding Opportunities

Recommends ways to improve and expand summer learning programs by better coordinating federal, state and local programs, including ensuring that federal program regulations explicitly allow spending for summer programs and creating funding collaboratives

The Contribution of Rural Tourism to the Sustainable Development of the Rural Areas

There are some elements related to the concept of rural tourism which has nowadays become very important around the world. The rural tourism can revitalize the conventional concepts and views on tourism, and bring in a new dimension to the sustainable development of tourism. It has been realized that tourism can play a major role in many countries economies, especially in developing ones, where it can substantially contribute to the increase of the national income. In this respect, mention should be made that Romania has a lot of resources to develop this tourism branch: villages with well conserved traditions, folklore, wildlife, natural heritage. All these natural elements put in value together with investments in infrastructure have determined an increasing demand for the Romanian rural destinations.sustainable development, rural tourism, sustainability

Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy.

In this paper we analyze the time series of daily average prices generated in the Italian electricity market, which started to operate as a Pool in April 2004. The objective is to characterize the high degree of autocorrelation and multiple seasonalities in the electricity prices. We use periodic time series models with GARCH disturbances and leptokurtic distributions and compare their performance with more classical ARMA-GARCH processes. The within-year seasonal variation is modelled using the low frequencies components of physical quantities, which are very regular throughout the sample. Results reveal that much of the variability of the price series is explained by deterministic multiple seasonalities which interact with each other. Periodic AR-GARCH models seem to perform quite well in mimicking the features of the stochastic part of the price process.Electricity auctions, Periodic Time Series, Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Multiple Seasonalities

Bowtie models as preventive models in maritime safety

Aquest treball ha sorgit d’una proposta del Dr. Rodrigo de Larrucea que ha acabat de publicar un llibre ambiciós sobre Seguretat Marítima. Com ell mateix diu, el tema “excedeix amb molt les potencialitats de l’autor”, així que en el meu cas això és més cert. Es pot aspirar, però, a fer una modesta contribució a l’estudi i difusió de la seguretat de la cultura marítima, que només apareix a les notícies quan tenen lloc desastres molt puntuals. En qualsevol cas, el professor em va proposar que em centrés en els Bowtie Models, models en corbatí, que integren l’arbre de causes y el de conseqüències (en anglès el Fault Tree Analysis, FTA, i l’Event Tree Analysis, ETA). Certament, existeixen altres metodologies i aproximacions (i en el seu llibre en presenta vàries, resumides), però per la seva senzillesa conceptual i possibilitat de generalització i integració dels resultats era una bona aposta. Així, després d’una fase de meditació i recopilació de informació, em vaig decidir a presentar un model en corbatí molt general on caben les principals causes d’accidents (factores ambientals, error humà i fallada mecànica), comptant també que pot existir una combinació de causes. De tota manera, a l’hora d’explotar aquest model existeix la gran dificultat de donar una probabilitat de ocurrència, un nombre entre 0 i 1, a cada branca. Normalment les probabilitats d’ocurrència són petites i degut a això difícils d’estimar. Cada accident és diferent, de grans catàstrofes n’hi ha poques, i cada accident ja és estudiat de manera exhaustiva (més exhaustiva quan més greu és). Un altre factor que dificulta l’estima de la probabilitat de fallada és l’evolució constant del món marítim, tant des del punt de vista tècnic, de formació, legal i fins i tot generacional doncs cada generació de marins és diferent. Els esforços estan doncs enfocats a augmentar la seguretat, encara que sempre amb un ull posat sobre els costs. Així, he presentat un model en corbatí pel seu valor didàctic i gràfic però sense entrar en detalls numèrics, que si s’escau ja aniré afinant i interioritzant en l’exercici de la professió. En aquest treball també he intentat no mantenir-me totalment al costat de la teoria (ja se sap que si tot es fa bé, tot surt perfecte, etc…) sinó presentar amb cert detall 2 casos ben coneguts d’accidents marítims: el petroler Exxon Valdez, el 1989 i el ferry Estonia en 1994, entre altres esmentats. Són casos ja una mica vells però que van contribuir a augmentar la cultura de la seguretat, fins a arribar al nivell del que gaudim actualment, al menys als països occidentals. Doncs la seguretat, com esmenta Rodrigo de Larrucea “és una actitud i mai és fortuïta; sempre és el resultat d’una voluntat decidida, un esforç sincer, una direcció intel·ligent i una execució acurada. Sens lloc a dubtes, sempre suposa la millor alternativa”. The work has been inspired in its initial aspects by the book of my tutor Jaime Rodrigo de Larrucea, that presents a state of the art of all the maritime aspects related to safety. Evidently, since it covers all the topics, it cannot deepen on every topic. It was my opportunity to deepen in the Bowtie Model but finally I have also covered a wide variety of topics. Later, when I began to study the topics, I realized that the people in the maritime world usually do not understand to a great extent statistics. Everybody is concerned about safety but few nautical students take a probabilistic approach to the accidents. For this it is extremely important to study the population that is going to be studied: in our case the SOLAS ships Also, during my time at Riga, I have been very concerned with the most diverse accidents, some of them studied during the courses at Barcelona. I have seen that it is difficult to model mathematically the accidents, since each one has different characteristics, angles, and surely there are not 2 equal. Finally, it was accorded that I should concentrate on the Bowtie Model, which is not very complex from a statistical point of view. It is simply a fault tree of events model and a tree of effects. I present some examples in this Chapter 2. The difficulty I point out is to try to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of events that are unusual. We concentrated at major accidents, those that may cause victims or heavy losses. Then, for the sake of generality, at Chapter 4, I have divided the causes in 4 great classes: Natural hazards, human factor, mechanical failure and attacks (piracy and terrorism). The last concern maybe should not be included beside the others since terrorism and piracy acts are not accidents, but since there is an important code dedicated to prevent security threats, ISPS, it is example of design of barriers to prevent an undesired event (although it gives mainly guidelines to follow by the States, Port Terminals and Shipping Companies). I have presented a detailed study of the tragedy of the Estonia, showing how a mechanical failure triggered the failure of the ferry, by its nature a delicate ship, but there were other factors such as poor maintenance and heavy seas. At the next Chapter, certain characteristics of error chains are analyzed. Finally, the conclusions are drawn, offering a pretty optimistic view of the safety (and security) culture at the Western World but that may not easily permeate the entire World, due to the associated costs

Workloads and waiting times in single-server systems with multiple customer classes

One of the most fundamental properties that single-server multi-class service systems may possess is the property of work conservation. Under certain restrictions, the work conservation property gives rise to a conservation law for mean waiting times, i.e., a linear relation between the mean waiting times of the various classes of customers. This paper is devoted to single-server multi-class service systems in which work conservation is violated in the sense that the server's activities may be interrupted although work is still present. For a large class of such systems with interruptions, a decomposition of the amount of work into two independent components is obtained; one of these components is the amount of work in the corresponding systemwithout interruptions. The work decomposition gives rise to a (pseudo)conservation law for mean waiting times, just as work conservation did for the system without interruptions