Using artificial neural networks for transport decisions: Managerial guidelines

One information technology that may be considered by transportation managers, and which is included in the portfolio of technologies that encompass TMS. is artificial neural networks (ANNs). These artificially intelligent computer decision support software provide solutions by finding and recognizing complex patterns in data. ANNs have been used successfully by transportation managers to forecast transportation demand, estimate future transport costs, schedule vehicles and shipments, route vehicles and classify earners for selection. Artificial neural networks excel in transportation decision environments that are dynamic, complex and unstructured. This article introduces ANNs to transport managers by describing ANN technological capabilities, reporting the current status of transportation neural network applications, presenting ANN applications that offer significant potential for future development and offering managerial guidelines for ANN development

Analysis Of The Relevance Of Models, Influencing Factors And The Point In Time Of The Forecast On The Prediction Quality In Order-Related Delivery Time Determination Using Machine Learning

One of the main objectives of manufacturing companies that structure their manufacturing system according to the workshop principle is to meet the delivery dates communicated to the customer. One approach to avoid large delivery time buffers to stabilize liability of communicated delivery dates is to improve the forecasting quality of the initially determined planned delivery dates. In this context, machine learning methods are a promising approach for the dynamic, order-related forecasting of delivery times. In the development process of machine learning based applications for delivery time forecasting companies are challenged by the following questions: which influencing factors must be considered? Which machine learning models generate the best forecast quality? At what point in the production process does the application of machine learning methods for delivery time forecasting make sense from an economic perspective? Existing approaches do not adequately address these questions. In most cases, only few process steps are considered and only throughput times are forecasted instead of delivery times. The information available at the point in time when the delivery time is forecasted is not discussed. The considered input factors influencing the delivery time are reduced to the company's internal supply chain and therefore do not allow for a satisfactory forecast quality of the delivery time. External influencing factors are often not included. Therefore, this paper describes the influence of different machine learning models, different points in time for the forecasting itself and included influencing factors on the achievable forecast quality. The influence is determined by applying machine learning methods on delivery time forecasting to five real-world use cases

Negotiation-Based Capacity Planning With A Learning Mechanism Using Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System

In decentralized manufacturing environment with multiple factories that are scattered geographically, the complexity of production systems increases, and capacity planning and allocation of resources have become a significant concern that affects system performances. This study focuses on the development of an integrated framework to allocate limited budget in a multiple-factory environment. We develop a negotiation framework with learning mechanism to allocate autonomously finite budget provided by a headquarter and to facilitate the use of limited manufacturing resources that are scattered over individual factories. The outcome of the experiments shows good prediction of the opponent offers during negotiation, so it enables the reduction of negotiation time

Cognition driven framework for improving collaborative working in construction projects: Negotiation perspective

Negotiation is the popular collaborative decision‐making behavior in inter‐organization systems, especially in the collaborative working in construction projects (CWCP). However, negotiation has long been recognized as a critical but time‐ and energy‐consuming process. The lack of an effective framework to improve the efficiency (performance) of negotiation is a major problem for those seeking to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of collaborative working in construction projects. This paper aims to develop a cognitive mapping‐based application framework for improving collaborative working in construction project from negotiation perspective (CF‐CWCP). This framework includes two‐fold: (1) mapping negotiation process in construction projects using cognitive mapping technique; (2) developing CF‐CWCP by integrating intelligent agent and cognitive mapping techniques. This research will benefit the partners in construction projects to improve construction negotiation performance. A prototype of CF‐CWCP is developed. Santrauka Derybos yra populiarus bendradarbiavimu gristas tarimasis tarp organizaciniu sistemu priimti sprendi‐mus, ypač vykdant statybu projektus. Derybos jau seniai suvokiamos kaip vertingas, tačiau daug laiko ir energijos atimantis procesas. Veiksmingos sistemos, galinčios padeti pagerinti derybu efektyvuma, trūku‐mas yra viena iš pagrindiniu problemu siekiantiems padidinti bendradarbiavimo veiksminguma vykdant statybos projektus. Pagrindinis šio straipsnio tikslas ‐ išpletoti pažinimo kartografija paremtos sistemos, kuri pagerintuben‐dradarbiavima vykdant statybos projektus, taikyma atsižvelgiant i derybu perspektyvas. Šia sistema suda‐ro dvi dalys: 1) kartografinis derybu procesas vykdant statybos projektus, pagristas pažinimo kartografijos technologija; 2) pažinimo sistemos, gerinančios bendradarbiavima vykdant statybos projektus, pletojimas integruojant intelektinius agentus ir pažinimo kartografijos technologija. Šis tyrimas pades statybu projek‐tu dalyviams pagerinti derybu efektyvuma, be to, išpletotas pažinimo sistemos prototipas. First Published Online: 09 Jun 2011 Reikšminiai žodžiai: pažinimo kartografija, bendradarbiavimas, derybos, statybos projekta

PRICING DECISIONS BY FREIGHT FORWARDERS

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

What to bid and when to stop

Negotiation is an important activity in human society, and is studied by various disciplines, ranging from economics and game theory, to electronic commerce, social psychology, and artificial intelligence. Traditionally, negotiation is a necessary, but also time-consuming and expensive activity. Therefore, in the last decades there has been a large interest in the automation of negotiation, for example in the setting of e-commerce. This interest is fueled by the promise of automated agents eventually being able to negotiate on behalf of human negotiators.Every year, automated negotiation agents are improving in various ways, and there is now a large body of negotiation strategies available, all with their unique strengths and weaknesses. For example, some agents are able to predict the opponent's preferences very well, while others focus more on having a sophisticated bidding strategy. The problem however, is that there is little incremental improvement in agent design, as the agents are tested in varying negotiation settings, using a diverse set of performance measures. This makes it very difficult to meaningfully compare the agents, let alone their underlying techniques. As a result, we lack a reliable way to pinpoint the most effective components in a negotiating agent.There are two major advantages of distinguishing between the different components of a negotiating agent's strategy: first, it allows the study of the behavior and performance of the components in isolation. For example, it becomes possible to compare the preference learning component of all agents, and to identify the best among them. Second, we can proceed to mix and match different components to create new negotiation strategies., e.g.: replacing the preference learning technique of an agent and then examining whether this makes a difference. Such a procedure enables us to combine the individual components to systematically explore the space of possible negotiation strategies.To develop a compositional approach to evaluate and combine the components, we identify structure in most agent designs by introducing the BOA architecture, in which we can develop and integrate the different components of a negotiating agent. We identify three main components of a general negotiation strategy; namely a bidding strategy (B), possibly an opponent model (O), and an acceptance strategy (A). The bidding strategy considers what concessions it deems appropriate given its own preferences, and takes the opponent into account by using an opponent model. The acceptance strategy decides whether offers proposed by the opponent should be accepted.The BOA architecture is integrated into a generic negotiation environment called Genius, which is a software environment for designing and evaluating negotiation strategies. To explore the negotiation strategy space of the negotiation research community, we amend the Genius repository with various existing agents and scenarios from literature. Additionally, we organize a yearly international negotiation competition (ANAC) to harvest even more strategies and scenarios. ANAC also acts as an evaluation tool for negotiation strategies, and encourages the design of negotiation strategies and scenarios.We re-implement agents from literature and ANAC and decouple them to fit into the BOA architecture without introducing any changes in their behavior. For each of the three components, we manage to find and analyze the best ones for specific cases, as described below. We show that the BOA framework leads to significant improvements in agent design by wining ANAC 2013, which had 19 participating teams from 8 international institutions, with an agent that is designed using the BOA framework and is informed by a preliminary analysis of the different components.In every negotiation, one of the negotiating parties must accept an offer to reach an agreement. Therefore, it is important that a negotiator employs a proficient mechanism to decide under which conditions to accept. When contemplating whether to accept an offer, the agent is faced with the acceptance dilemma: accepting the offer may be suboptimal, as better offers may still be presented before time runs out. On the other hand, accepting too late may prevent an agreement from being reached, resulting in a break off with no gain for either party. We classify and compare state-of-the-art generic acceptance conditions. We propose new acceptance strategies and we demonstrate that they outperform the other conditions. We also provide insight into why some conditions work better than others and investigate correlations between the properties of the negotiation scenario and the efficacy of acceptance conditions.Later, we adopt a more principled approach by applying optimal stopping theory to calculate the optimal decision on the acceptance of an offer. We approach the decision of whether to accept as a sequential decision problem, by modeling the bids received as a stochastic process. We determine the optimal acceptance policies for particular opponent classes and we present an approach to estimate the expected range of offers when the type of opponent is unknown. We show that the proposed approach is able to find the optimal time to accept, and improves upon all existing acceptance strategies.Another principal component of a negotiating agent's strategy is its ability to take the opponent's preferences into account. The quality of an opponent model can be measured in two different ways. One is to use the agent's performance as a benchmark for the model's quality. We evaluate and compare the performance of a selection of state-of-the-art opponent modeling techniques in negotiation. We provide an overview of the factors influencing the quality of a model and we analyze how the performance of opponent models depends on the negotiation setting. We identify a class of simple and surprisingly effective opponent modeling techniques that did not receive much previous attention in literature.The other way to measure the quality of an opponent model is to directly evaluate its accuracy by using similarity measures. We review all methods to measure the accuracy of an opponent model and we then analyze how changes in accuracy translate into performance differences. Moreover, we pinpoint the best predictors for good performance. This leads to new insights concerning how to construct an opponent model, and what we need to measure when optimizing performance.Finally, we take two different approaches to gain more insight into effective bidding strategies. We present a new classification method for negotiation strategies, based on their pattern of concession making against different kinds of opponents. We apply this technique to classify some well-known negotiating strategies, and we formulate guidelines on how agents should bid in order to be successful, which gives insight into the bidding strategy space of negotiating agents. Furthermore, we apply optimal stopping theory again, this time to find the concessions that maximize utility for the bidder against particular opponents. We show there is an interesting connection between optimal bidding and optimal acceptance strategies, in the sense that they are mirrored versions of each other.Lastly, after analyzing all components separately, we put the pieces back together again. We take all BOA components accumulated so far, including the best ones, and combine them all together to explore the space of negotiation strategies.We compute the contribution of each component to the overall negotiation result, and we study the interaction between components. We find that combining the best agent components indeed makes the strongest agents. This shows that the component-based view of the BOA architecture not only provides a useful basis for developing negotiating agents but also provides a useful analytical tool. By varying the BOA components we are able to demonstrate the contribution of each component to the negotiation result, and thus analyze the significance of each. The bidding strategy is by far the most important to consider, followed by the acceptance conditions and finally followed by the opponent model.Our results validate the analytical approach of the BOA framework to first optimize the individual components, and then to recombine them into a negotiating agent