Learning and Updating User Models for Subpopulations in Persuasive Argumentation Using Beta Distribution

Persuasion is an activity that involves one party (the persuader) trying to induce another party (the persuadee) to believe or do something. It is an important and multifaceted human facility both in professional life (e.g., a doctor persuading a patient to give up smoking) and everyday life (e.g., some friends persuading another to join them in seeing a film). Recently, some proposals in the field of computational models of argument have been made for probabilistic models of what the persuadee knows about, or believes. However, they cannot efficiently model uncertainty on the belief of individuals and cannot represent populations. We propose to use mixtures of beta distributions and apply them on real data gathered by linguists. We show that we can represent the belief and its uncertainty using beta mixtures and that we can predict the evolution of this belief after an argument is given. We also present examples of how to use the mixtures in practice to replace general belief update functions

Strategic Argumentation Dialogues for Persuasion: Framework and Experiments Based on Modelling the Beliefs and Concerns of the Persuadee

Persuasion is an important and yet complex aspect of human intelligence. When undertaken through dialogue, the deployment of good arguments, and therefore counterarguments, clearly has a significant effect on the ability to be successful in persuasion. Two key dimensions for determining whether an argument is good in a particular dialogue are the degree to which the intended audience believes the argument and counterarguments, and the impact that the argument has on the concerns of the intended audience. In this paper, we present a framework for modelling persuadees in terms of their beliefs and concerns, and for harnessing these models in optimizing the choice of move in persuasion dialogues. Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo Tree Search which allows optimization in real-time. We provide empirical results of a study with human participants showing that our automated persuasion system based on this technology is superior to a baseline system that does not take the beliefs and concerns into account in its strategy.Comment: The Data Appendix containing the arguments, argument graphs, assignment of concerns to arguments, preferences over concerns, and assignment of beliefs to arguments, is available at the link http://www0.cs.ucl.ac.uk/staff/a.hunter/papers/unistudydata.zip The code is available at https://github.com/ComputationalPersuasion/MCC

Strategic argumentation dialogues for persuasion: Framework and experiments based on modelling the beliefs and concerns of the persuadee

Persuasion is an important and yet complex aspect of human intelligence. When undertaken through dialogue, the deployment of good arguments, and therefore counterarguments, clearly has a significant effect on the ability to be successful in persuasion. Two key dimensions for determining whether an argument is 'good' in a particular dialogue are the degree to which the intended audience believes the argument and counterarguments, and the impact that the argument has on the concerns of the intended audience. In this paper, we present a framework for modelling persuadees in terms of their beliefs and concerns, and for harnessing these models in optimizing the choice of move in persuasion dialogues. Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo Tree Search which allows optimization in real-time. We provide empirical results of a study with human participants that compares an automated persuasion system based on this technology with a baseline system that does not take the beliefs and concerns into account in its strategy

Towards Computational Persuasion via Natural Language Argumentation Dialogues

Computational persuasion aims to capture the human ability to persuade through argumentation for applications such as behaviour change in healthcare (e.g. persuading people to take more exercise or eat more healthily). In this paper, we review research in computational persuasion that incorporates domain modelling (capturing arguments and counterarguments that can appear in a persuasion dialogues), user modelling (capturing the beliefs and concerns of the persuadee), and dialogue strategies (choosing the best moves for the persuader to maximize the chances that the persuadee is persuaded). We discuss evaluation of prototype systems that get the user’s counterarguments by allowing them to select them from a menu. Then we consider how this work might be enhanced by incorporating a natural language interface in the form of an argumentative chatbot

Probabilistic Argumentation for Patient Decision Making

Medical drug reviews are increasingly commonplace on the web and have become an important source of information for patients undergoing medical treatment. Patients will look to these reviews in order to understand the impact the drugs have had on others who have experienced them. In short these reviews can be interpreted as a body of arguments and counterarguments for/against the drug being reviewed. One of the challenges of reading these reviews is drawing out the arguments easily and forming a final opinion; this is due to the number of reviews and the variety of arguments presented. This thesis explores the use of computational models of argumentation in order to extract structured argumentation data from the reviews and present them to the user. In particular I propose a pipeline that performs argument extraction, argument graph extraction and visualisation

Epistemic graphs for representing and reasoning with positive and negative influences of arguments

This paper introduces epistemic graphs as a generalization of the epistemic approach to probabilistic argumentation. In these graphs, an argument can be believed or disbelieved up to a given degree, thus providing a more fine–grained alternative to the standard Dung's approaches when it comes to determining the status of a given argument. Furthermore, the flexibility of the epistemic approach allows us to both model the rationale behind the existing semantics as well as completely deviate from them when required. Epistemic graphs can model both attack and support as well as relations that are neither support nor attack. The way other arguments influence a given argument is expressed by the epistemic constraints that can restrict the belief we have in an argument with a varying degree of specificity. The fact that we can specify the rules under which arguments should be evaluated and we can include constraints between unrelated arguments permits the framework to be more context–sensitive. It also allows for better modelling of imperfect agents, which can be important in multi–agent applications

Advancing Human Assessment: The Methodological, Psychological and Policy Contributions of ETS

​This book describes the extensive contributions made toward the advancement of human assessment by scientists from one of the world’s leading research institutions, Educational Testing Service. The book’s four major sections detail research and development in measurement and statistics, education policy analysis and evaluation, scientific psychology, and validity. Many of the developments presented have become de-facto standards in educational and psychological measurement, including in item response theory (IRT), linking and equating, differential item functioning (DIF), and educational surveys like the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the Programme of international Student Assessment (PISA), the Progress of International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) and the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). In addition to its comprehensive coverage of contributions to the theory and methodology of educational and psychological measurement and statistics, the book gives significant attention to ETS work in cognitive, personality, developmental, and social psychology, and to education policy analysis and program evaluation. The chapter authors are long-standing experts who provide broad coverage and thoughtful insights that build upon decades of experience in research and best practices for measurement, evaluation, scientific psychology, and education policy analysis. Opening with a chapter on the genesis of ETS and closing with a synthesis of the enormously diverse set of contributions made over its 70-year history, the book is a useful resource for all interested in the improvement of human assessment

Advancing Human Assessment: The Methodological, Psychological and Policy Contributions of ETS

Educational Testing Service (ETS); large-scale assessment; policy research; psychometrics; admissions test

The Knowledge Grid: A Platform to Increase the Interoperability of Computable Knowledge and Produce Advice for Health

Here we demonstrate how more highly interoperable computable knowledge enables systems to generate large quantities of evidence-based advice for health. We first provide a thorough analysis of advice. Then, because advice derives from knowledge, we turn our focus to computable, i.e., machine-interpretable, forms for knowledge. We consider how computable knowledge plays dual roles as a resource conveying content and as an advice enabler. In this latter role, computable knowledge is combined with data about a decision situation to generate advice targeted at the pending decision. We distinguish between two types of automated services. When a computer system provides computable knowledge, we say that it provides a knowledge service. When computer system combines computable knowledge with instance data to provide advice that is specific to an unmade decision we say that it provides an advice-giving service. The work here aims to increase the interoperability of computable knowledge to bring about better knowledge services and advice-giving services for health. The primary motivation for this research is the problem of missing or inadequate advice about health topics. The global demand for well-informed health advice far exceeds the global supply. In part to overcome this scarcity, the design and development of Learning Health Systems is being pursued at various levels of scale: local, regional, state, national, and international. Learning Health Systems fuse capabilities to generate new computable biomedical knowledge with other capabilities to rapidly and widely use computable biomedical knowledge to inform health practices and behaviors with advice. To support Learning Health Systems, we believe that knowledge services and advice-giving services have to be more highly interoperable. I use examples of knowledge services and advice-giving services which exclusively support medication use. This is because I am a pharmacist and pharmacy is the biomedical domain that I know. The examples here address the serious problems of medication adherence and prescribing safety. Two empirical studies are shared that demonstrate the potential to address these problems and make improvements by using advice. But primarily we use these examples to demonstrate general and critical differences between stand-alone, unique approaches to handling computable biomedical knowledge, which make it useful for one system, and common, more highly interoperable approaches, which can make it useful for many heterogeneous systems. Three aspects of computable knowledge interoperability are addressed: modularity, identity, and updateability. We demonstrate that instances of computable knowledge, and related instances of knowledge services and advice-giving services, can be modularized. We also demonstrate the utility of uniquely identifying modular instances of computable knowledge. Finally, we build on the computing concept of pipelining to demonstrate how computable knowledge modules can automatically be updated and rapidly deployed. Our work is supported by a fledgling technical knowledge infrastructure platform called the Knowledge Grid. It includes formally specified compound digital objects called Knowledge Objects, a conventional digital Library that serves as a Knowledge Object repository, and an Activator that provides an application programming interface (API) for computable knowledge. The Library component provides knowledge services. The Activator component provides both knowledge services and advice-giving services. In conclusion, by increasing the interoperability of computable biomedical knowledge using the Knowledge Grid, we demonstrate new capabilities to generate well-informed health advice at a scale. These new capabilities may ultimately support Learning Health Systems and boost health for large populations of people who would otherwise not receive well-informed health advice.PHDInformationUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146073/1/ajflynn_1.pd