181,691 research outputs found
Identifying predictive features of autism spectrum disorders in a clinical sample of adolescents and adults using machine learning
Diagnosing autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is a complicated, time-consuming process which is particularly challenging in older individuals. One of the most widely used behavioral diagnostic tools is the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). Previous work using machine learning techniques suggested that ASD detection in children can be achieved with substantially fewer items than the original ADOS. Here, we expand on this work with a specific focus on adolescents and adults as assessed with the ADOS Module 4. We used a machine learning algorithm (support vector machine) to examine whether ASD detection can be improved by identifying a subset of behavioral features from the ADOS Module 4 in a routine clinical sample of N = 673 high-functioning adolescents and adults with ASD (n = 385) and individuals with suspected ASD but other best-estimate or no psychiatric diagnoses (n = 288). We identified reduced subsets of 5 behavioral features for the whole sample as well as age subgroups (adolescents vs. adults) that showed good specificity and sensitivity and reached performance close to that of the existing ADOS algorithm and the full ADOS, with no significant differences in overall performance. These results may help to improve the complicated diagnostic process of ASD by encouraging future efforts to develop novel diagnostic instruments for ASD detection based on the identified constructs as well as aiding clinicians in the difficult question of differential diagnosis
Propagation Networks for Model-Based Control Under Partial Observation
There has been an increasing interest in learning dynamics simulators for
model-based control. Compared with off-the-shelf physics engines, a learnable
simulator can quickly adapt to unseen objects, scenes, and tasks. However,
existing models like interaction networks only work for fully observable
systems; they also only consider pairwise interactions within a single time
step, both restricting their use in practical systems. We introduce Propagation
Networks (PropNet), a differentiable, learnable dynamics model that handles
partially observable scenarios and enables instantaneous propagation of signals
beyond pairwise interactions. Experiments show that our propagation networks
not only outperform current learnable physics engines in forward simulation,
but also achieve superior performance on various control tasks. Compared with
existing model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithms, model-based control
with propagation networks is more accurate, efficient, and generalizable to
new, partially observable scenes and tasks.Comment: Accepted to ICRA 2019. Project Page: http://propnet.csail.mit.edu
Video: https://youtu.be/ZAxHXegkz4
Iterative Random Forests to detect predictive and stable high-order interactions
Genomics has revolutionized biology, enabling the interrogation of whole
transcriptomes, genome-wide binding sites for proteins, and many other
molecular processes. However, individual genomic assays measure elements that
interact in vivo as components of larger molecular machines. Understanding how
these high-order interactions drive gene expression presents a substantial
statistical challenge. Building on Random Forests (RF), Random Intersection
Trees (RITs), and through extensive, biologically inspired simulations, we
developed the iterative Random Forest algorithm (iRF). iRF trains a
feature-weighted ensemble of decision trees to detect stable, high-order
interactions with same order of computational cost as RF. We demonstrate the
utility of iRF for high-order interaction discovery in two prediction problems:
enhancer activity in the early Drosophila embryo and alternative splicing of
primary transcripts in human derived cell lines. In Drosophila, among the 20
pairwise transcription factor interactions iRF identifies as stable (returned
in more than half of bootstrap replicates), 80% have been previously reported
as physical interactions. Moreover, novel third-order interactions, e.g.
between Zelda (Zld), Giant (Gt), and Twist (Twi), suggest high-order
relationships that are candidates for follow-up experiments. In human-derived
cells, iRF re-discovered a central role of H3K36me3 in chromatin-mediated
splicing regulation, and identified novel 5th and 6th order interactions,
indicative of multi-valent nucleosomes with specific roles in splicing
regulation. By decoupling the order of interactions from the computational cost
of identification, iRF opens new avenues of inquiry into the molecular
mechanisms underlying genome biology
Model-based Reinforcement Learning with Parametrized Physical Models and Optimism-Driven Exploration
In this paper, we present a robotic model-based reinforcement learning method
that combines ideas from model identification and model predictive control. We
use a feature-based representation of the dynamics that allows the dynamics
model to be fitted with a simple least squares procedure, and the features are
identified from a high-level specification of the robot's morphology,
consisting of the number and connectivity structure of its links. Model
predictive control is then used to choose the actions under an optimistic model
of the dynamics, which produces an efficient and goal-directed exploration
strategy. We present real time experimental results on standard benchmark
problems involving the pendulum, cartpole, and double pendulum systems.
Experiments indicate that our method is able to learn a range of benchmark
tasks substantially faster than the previous best methods. To evaluate our
approach on a realistic robotic control task, we also demonstrate real time
control of a simulated 7 degree of freedom arm.Comment: 8 page
Boosting insights in insurance tariff plans with tree-based machine learning methods
Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized
linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus
on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the
frequency and severity of claims. We adapt the loss functions used in the
algorithms such that the specific characteristics of insurance data are
carefully incorporated: highly unbalanced count data with excess zeros and
varying exposure on the frequency side combined with scarce, but potentially
long-tailed data on the severity side. A key requirement is the need for
transparent and interpretable pricing models which are easily explainable to
all stakeholders. We therefore focus on machine learning with decision trees:
starting from simple regression trees, we work towards more advanced ensembles
such as random forests and boosted trees. We show how to choose the optimal
tuning parameters for these models in an elaborate cross-validation scheme, we
present visualization tools to obtain insights from the resulting models and
the economic value of these new modeling approaches is evaluated. Boosted trees
outperform the classical GLMs, allowing the insurer to form profitable
portfolios and to guard against potential adverse risk selection
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