Identifying predictive features of autism spectrum disorders in a clinical sample of adolescents and adults using machine learning

Diagnosing autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is a complicated, time-consuming process which is particularly challenging in older individuals. One of the most widely used behavioral diagnostic tools is the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). Previous work using machine learning techniques suggested that ASD detection in children can be achieved with substantially fewer items than the original ADOS. Here, we expand on this work with a specific focus on adolescents and adults as assessed with the ADOS Module 4. We used a machine learning algorithm (support vector machine) to examine whether ASD detection can be improved by identifying a subset of behavioral features from the ADOS Module 4 in a routine clinical sample of N = 673 high-functioning adolescents and adults with ASD (n = 385) and individuals with suspected ASD but other best-estimate or no psychiatric diagnoses (n = 288). We identified reduced subsets of 5 behavioral features for the whole sample as well as age subgroups (adolescents vs. adults) that showed good specificity and sensitivity and reached performance close to that of the existing ADOS algorithm and the full ADOS, with no significant differences in overall performance. These results may help to improve the complicated diagnostic process of ASD by encouraging future efforts to develop novel diagnostic instruments for ASD detection based on the identified constructs as well as aiding clinicians in the difficult question of differential diagnosis

Propagation Networks for Model-Based Control Under Partial Observation

There has been an increasing interest in learning dynamics simulators for model-based control. Compared with off-the-shelf physics engines, a learnable simulator can quickly adapt to unseen objects, scenes, and tasks. However, existing models like interaction networks only work for fully observable systems; they also only consider pairwise interactions within a single time step, both restricting their use in practical systems. We introduce Propagation Networks (PropNet), a differentiable, learnable dynamics model that handles partially observable scenarios and enables instantaneous propagation of signals beyond pairwise interactions. Experiments show that our propagation networks not only outperform current learnable physics engines in forward simulation, but also achieve superior performance on various control tasks. Compared with existing model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithms, model-based control with propagation networks is more accurate, efficient, and generalizable to new, partially observable scenes and tasks.Comment: Accepted to ICRA 2019. Project Page: http://propnet.csail.mit.edu Video: https://youtu.be/ZAxHXegkz4

Iterative Random Forests to detect predictive and stable high-order interactions

Genomics has revolutionized biology, enabling the interrogation of whole transcriptomes, genome-wide binding sites for proteins, and many other molecular processes. However, individual genomic assays measure elements that interact in vivo as components of larger molecular machines. Understanding how these high-order interactions drive gene expression presents a substantial statistical challenge. Building on Random Forests (RF), Random Intersection Trees (RITs), and through extensive, biologically inspired simulations, we developed the iterative Random Forest algorithm (iRF). iRF trains a feature-weighted ensemble of decision trees to detect stable, high-order interactions with same order of computational cost as RF. We demonstrate the utility of iRF for high-order interaction discovery in two prediction problems: enhancer activity in the early Drosophila embryo and alternative splicing of primary transcripts in human derived cell lines. In Drosophila, among the 20 pairwise transcription factor interactions iRF identifies as stable (returned in more than half of bootstrap replicates), 80% have been previously reported as physical interactions. Moreover, novel third-order interactions, e.g. between Zelda (Zld), Giant (Gt), and Twist (Twi), suggest high-order relationships that are candidates for follow-up experiments. In human-derived cells, iRF re-discovered a central role of H3K36me3 in chromatin-mediated splicing regulation, and identified novel 5th and 6th order interactions, indicative of multi-valent nucleosomes with specific roles in splicing regulation. By decoupling the order of interactions from the computational cost of identification, iRF opens new avenues of inquiry into the molecular mechanisms underlying genome biology

Model-based Reinforcement Learning with Parametrized Physical Models and Optimism-Driven Exploration

In this paper, we present a robotic model-based reinforcement learning method that combines ideas from model identification and model predictive control. We use a feature-based representation of the dynamics that allows the dynamics model to be fitted with a simple least squares procedure, and the features are identified from a high-level specification of the robot's morphology, consisting of the number and connectivity structure of its links. Model predictive control is then used to choose the actions under an optimistic model of the dynamics, which produces an efficient and goal-directed exploration strategy. We present real time experimental results on standard benchmark problems involving the pendulum, cartpole, and double pendulum systems. Experiments indicate that our method is able to learn a range of benchmark tasks substantially faster than the previous best methods. To evaluate our approach on a realistic robotic control task, we also demonstrate real time control of a simulated 7 degree of freedom arm.Comment: 8 page

Boosting insights in insurance tariff plans with tree-based machine learning methods

Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the frequency and severity of claims. We adapt the loss functions used in the algorithms such that the specific characteristics of insurance data are carefully incorporated: highly unbalanced count data with excess zeros and varying exposure on the frequency side combined with scarce, but potentially long-tailed data on the severity side. A key requirement is the need for transparent and interpretable pricing models which are easily explainable to all stakeholders. We therefore focus on machine learning with decision trees: starting from simple regression trees, we work towards more advanced ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees. We show how to choose the optimal tuning parameters for these models in an elaborate cross-validation scheme, we present visualization tools to obtain insights from the resulting models and the economic value of these new modeling approaches is evaluated. Boosted trees outperform the classical GLMs, allowing the insurer to form profitable portfolios and to guard against potential adverse risk selection