44,910 research outputs found
Bayesian Optimisation for Safe Navigation under Localisation Uncertainty
In outdoor environments, mobile robots are required to navigate through
terrain with varying characteristics, some of which might significantly affect
the integrity of the platform. Ideally, the robot should be able to identify
areas that are safe for navigation based on its own percepts about the
environment while avoiding damage to itself. Bayesian optimisation (BO) has
been successfully applied to the task of learning a model of terrain
traversability while guiding the robot through more traversable areas. An
issue, however, is that localisation uncertainty can end up guiding the robot
to unsafe areas and distort the model being learnt. In this paper, we address
this problem and present a novel method that allows BO to consider localisation
uncertainty by applying a Gaussian process model for uncertain inputs as a
prior. We evaluate the proposed method in simulation and in experiments with a
real robot navigating over rough terrain and compare it against standard BO
methods.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the 18th International Symposium on
Robotics Research (ISRR 2017
Probabilistic Inference from Arbitrary Uncertainty using Mixtures of Factorized Generalized Gaussians
This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic
inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the
calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and
factorization. Both the joint probability density of the variables and the
likelihood function of the (objective or subjective) observation are
approximated by a special mixture model, in such a way that any desired
conditional distribution can be directly obtained without numerical
integration. We have developed an extended version of the expectation
maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of mixture models from
uncertain training examples (indirect observations). As a consequence, any
piece of exact or uncertain information about both input and output values is
consistently handled in the inference and learning stages. This ability,
extremely useful in certain situations, is not found in most alternative
methods. The proposed framework is formally justified from standard
probabilistic principles and illustrative examples are provided in the fields
of nonparametric pattern classification, nonlinear regression and pattern
completion. Finally, experiments on a real application and comparative results
over standard databases provide empirical evidence of the utility of the method
in a wide range of applications
Spatial Wireless Channel Prediction under Location Uncertainty
Spatial wireless channel prediction is important for future wireless
networks, and in particular for proactive resource allocation at different
layers of the protocol stack. Various sources of uncertainty must be accounted
for during modeling and to provide robust predictions. We investigate two
channel prediction frameworks, classical Gaussian processes (cGP) and uncertain
Gaussian processes (uGP), and analyze the impact of location uncertainty during
learning/training and prediction/testing, for scenarios where measurements
uncertainty are dominated by large-scale fading. We observe that cGP generally
fails both in terms of learning the channel parameters and in predicting the
channel in the presence of location uncertainties.\textcolor{blue}{{} }In
contrast, uGP explicitly considers the location uncertainty. Using simulated
data, we show that uGP is able to learn and predict the wireless channel
A New Distribution-Free Concept for Representing, Comparing, and Propagating Uncertainty in Dynamical Systems with Kernel Probabilistic Programming
This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel
probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose
formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly
general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy
sound theory rooted in functional analysis and wide applicability as
demonstrated in distinct numerical examples. The implication of this new
concept is a new mode of thinking about the statistical nature of uncertainty
in dynamical systems
Emulating dynamic non-linear simulators using Gaussian processes
The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the
output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer
models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for
example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models
we are interested in are highly non-linear and exhibit tipping points,
bifurcations and chaotic behaviour. However, each simulation run could be too
time-consuming to perform analyses that require many runs, including
quantifying the variation in model output with respect to changes in the
inputs. Therefore, Gaussian process emulators are used to approximate the
output of the code. To do this, the flow map of the system under study is
emulated over a short time period. Then, it is used in an iterative way to
predict the whole time series. A number of ways are proposed to take into
account the uncertainty of inputs to the emulators, after fixed initial
conditions, and the correlation between them through the time series. The
methodology is illustrated with two examples: the highly non-linear dynamical
systems described by the Lorenz and Van der Pol equations. In both cases, the
predictive performance is relatively high and the measure of uncertainty
provided by the method reflects the extent of predictability in each system
Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions
To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be
able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are
particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain
and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and
clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a
Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in
intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data.
The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy
relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory
prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion
planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions
can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this
approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard
sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic
environment.Comment: Submitted to 2014 International Workshop on the Algorithmic
Foundations of Robotic
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