Slava Ukraini: a psychobiographical case study of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s public diplomacy discourse

Volodymyr Zelenskyy\u27s public diplomacy during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict was examined in this dissertation. Zelenskyy’s discourse emphasized his action-oriented traits, Ukrainian identity, and nationalism. The study employed LTA, and LIWC-22, for natural language processing analyses of Zelenskyy\u27s public speeches and diplomatic discourse. Zelenskyy demonstrated agency, adaptability, collaboration, and positive language patterns, suggesting confidence and optimism, according to the data. In addition, the research emphasizes how domestic and international factors influence state behavior, as well as how political demands, cultural, historical, and political factors influence Zelenskyy\u27s decision-making. This dissertation sheds light on a global leader\u27s psychobiographical characteristics, beliefs, and motivations during a crisis, thereby advancing leadership and conflict resolution. By incorporating transformational leadership theory into LTA, researchers can gain a better understanding of effective leadership and how it develops strong connections with followers. LTA, LIWC-22, and qualitative coding were used to identify themes and trends in Zelenskyy\u27s speeches. The findings show Zelenskyy\u27s linguistic and leadership traits in public diplomacy, emphasizing the importance of understanding leaders\u27 traits in foreign policy decision-making. Psychobiographical profiles aid scholars in understanding a leader\u27s political views on conflict, their ability to influence events, and how they accomplish their objectives. As a result, perceptions of the state as an actor, as well as foreign policy decisions, must consider the effect of individual leaders. Conclusions include the Brittain-Hale Foreign Policy Analysis Model, based on a heuristic qualitative coding framework; HISTORICAL

Franjo Tudjman\u27s and Slobodan Milosevic\u27s Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis

Franjo Tudjman of Croatia and Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia played a prominent role in the Yugoslav politics and European politics during the 1990s, but the literature on them has advanced confusing interpretations of the two leaders whose political actions affected international politics. This dissertation is the first attempt at developing replicable measures of their psychological characteristics to inform our understanding of the role these two leaders played in Yugoslav and European politics. This dissertation examines the role of Tudjman\u27s and Milosevic\u27s psychological characteristics through at-a-distance analysis of their speeches, for Tudjman to the Croatian Parliament in the 1990s, and for Milosevic to different audiences. Specifically, this dissertation measures Tudjman\u27s and Milosevic\u27s operational code and five leadership traits associated with their operational code: conceptual complexity, distrust, need for power, belief in one\u27s ability to control events, and in-group bias. Through this analysis this dissertation clarifies the controversies in the descriptive histories written on Tudjman and Milosevic, and advance a more precise understanding of their approach to politics and foreign policy

Cognitions of the community: The worldview of U.S. intelligence

This dissertation attempts to determine what the worldview of U.S. intelligence looks like so that it can be incorporated into America\u27s intelligence identity. I argue that this is necessary to gain a better understanding of why the agencies that comprise the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) share several behaviors despite having different interests and preferences. To answer my research question, which asks what the worldview of U.S. intelligence is, I conceptualize the IC\u27s core belief system about world politics (its worldview) as the five philosophical beliefs in an operational code. I hypothesize about how the IC views each of these cognitions in accordance with my theory that the IC\u27s worldview underlies several U.S. intelligence norms. I also posit that the worldview of U.S. intelligence is specific and longstanding. However, after testing my hypotheses using automated content analysis and statistical methods, I only find strong support for two of my six propositions. The beliefs that comprise the IC\u27s worldview are well-established and continuous, and U.S. intelligence believes that it has a low degree of control over historical development. My primary conclusion is that the IC\u27s worldview is a topic that warrants further study given that cognitions underlie all political behavior and form the foundation for how power and interests are understood (Young and Schafer 1998, 84). I also conclude that the ultimate value of this dissertation lies not in what its analysis found, but in the fact that it is first study to empirically analyze the set of core beliefs that U.S. intelligence holds about foreign affairs and global issues among state and non-state actors

Terrorism's Operational Code: An Examination of the Belief Systems of al-Qaeda and Hamas

This dissertation is a systematic study of the political belief systems, via the Operational Code approach, of two terrorist actors: al-Qaeda and Hamas. Operational codes for each were derived through computerized content analysis of statements attributed to both organizations. The resulting indices were compared across each organization and to the indices of a norming group of state leaders. Additional analyses were performed on internal subdivisions and across chronologic statement groupings for each. The results of these comparisons indicated that the Operational Code approach provides a valuable means of linking differences in terrorist behavior and motivation to differences in belief systems. It also provides a means for the tracking of group beliefs over time and for evaluating internal belief system differences. Additionally, by comparison of observed operational code values to expected values informed by commonly held assumptions within the field of terrorism studies, the Operational Code approach provides a means of testing the basic validity of those assumptions

Autoritarinių lyderių užsienio politikos pokyčiai: Uzbekistano užsienio politikos po Šaltojo karo pabaigos analizė

The growing study of foreign policy change offers various explanations of change and continuity in foreign policy. By focusing on the actors of foreign policy decision-making, past scholarship has mainly concentrated on the role of institutional and noninstitutional factors in foreign policy change. However, decentralized decision-making is more relevant to democratic regimes than authoritarian regimes. Despite the abundance of case studies on foreign policy making in nondemocracies, advancements in the conceptual understanding of foreign policy change in authoritarian regimes are still needed. Addressing Uzbekistan’s foreign policy, this article proposes an advanced framework to explain why and how foreign policy change takes place under authoritarian leaders. A leader’s perception of the external environment is argued to be a decisive factor inducing authoritarian leaders to (re)consider their regime survival strategy. Concern with regime survival, in turn, shapes foreign policy goals which are manifested in distinctive foreign policy behavior of a leader. Ultimately, the behavior of a leader translates into certain foreign policy outcomes.Gausėjančios užsienio politikos pokyčių analizės siūlo skirtingus užsienio politikos kaitos ir tęstinumo aiškinimus. Susitelkdami į užsienio politikos sprendimų priėmėjus, ankstesni tyrėjai daugiausia dėmesio skyrė instituciniams ir neinstituciniams užsienio politikos pokyčių veiksniams. Tačiau decentralizuotas sprendimo priėmimas yra būdingesnis demokratiniams, o ne autoritariniams režimams. Nepaisant atvejų studijų, skirtų nedemokratinių režimų užsienio politikai analizuoti, gausos, postūmis geriau konceptualizuoti autoritarinių režimų užsienio politikos pokyčius vis dar aktualus. Analizuodamas Uzbekistano užsienio politikos atvejį šis straipsnis siūlo modelį, kodėl ir kaip užsienio politika keičiasi esant tam pačiam autoritariniam lyderiui. Teigiama, kad tai, kaip lyderis suvokia išorinę aplinką, yra esminis veiksnys, skatinantis autoritarinį lyderį permąstyti savo režimo išgyvenimo strategiją. Savo ruožtu rūpestis režimo išgyvenimu suformuoja užsienio politikos tikslus, kurie atsiskleidžia išskirtiniu lyderio elgesiu užsienio politikos srityje. Būtent ši elgsena ilgainiui tampa matoma kaip pagrindinis užsienio politikos rezultatas

Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code

Does the operational code of a state\u27s leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used ordered logistic regression across three models to determine the effect of the operational code on state crisis behavior while controlling for key domestic and crisis dimension variables. Predicted probabilities were also used to better demonstrate the variables\u27 substantive effects. The 50 cases used in this research are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Dataset composed by Brecher and Wilkenfeld, and they focus on the United States as the major crisis actor. Operational code data were derived from computer-based content analysis using the Verbs In Context System (Walker, Schafer, and Young 1998). The theoretical goal of this paper was to explain variance in state crisis behavior through variations in the operational codes of US Presidents. The results demonstrate that the operational codes of leaders do affect state crisis behavior. Specifically, the operational code indices P1 and I1 show that a leader with a more conflictual view of the nature of the political universe and a conflictual direction of strategy is more likely to employ escalatory crisis behavior

Cybersecurity Risk in U.S. Critical Infrastructure: An Analysis of Publicly Available U.S. Government Alerts and Advisories

As threat actor operations become increasingly sophisticated and emphasize the targeting of critical infrastructure and services, the need for cybersecurity information sharing will continue to grow. Escalating demand for cyber threat intelligence and information sharing across the cybersecurity community has resulted in the need to better understand the information produced by reputable sources such as U.S. CISA Alerts and ICS-CERT advisories. The text analysis program, Profiler Plus, is used to extract information from 1,574 U.S. government alerts and advisories to develop visualizations and generate enhanced insights into different cyber threat actor types, the tactics which can be used for cyber operations, and sectors of critical infrastructure at risk of an attack. The findings of this study enhance cyber threat intelligence activities by enabling an understanding of the trends in public information sharing as well as identifying gaps in open-source reporting on cyber-threat information

The Personality Traits of Populist Leaders and Their Foreign Policies: Hugo Chávez and Donald Trump

This paper seeks to advance the study of the nexus of populism and foreign policy by showing the connection between the personality traits of the leader and the foreign policy behavior of the state that they represent. It focuses on the political personality profiles of two populist leaders who can be characterized as antiplural, Hugo Chávez and Donald Trump, as a way to empirically further substantiate the recent research agenda on populism in world politics. The paper builds the two populist leaders’ political profiles through the use of the leader trait analysis approach. It contends that there are patterns in populist leaders’ personalities that can act as key drivers of their noncooperative and conflict-inducing behavior in foreign policy. The results show the characteristics that appear as the strongest predictors of their behavior in the international arena are their low task orientation and high focus on relationships