64,260 research outputs found
Forecasting of commercial sales with large scale Gaussian Processes
This paper argues that there has not been enough discussion in the field of
applications of Gaussian Process for the fast moving consumer goods industry.
Yet, this technique can be important as it e.g., can provide automatic feature
relevance determination and the posterior mean can unlock insights on the data.
Significant challenges are the large size and high dimensionality of commercial
data at a point of sale. The study reviews approaches in the Gaussian Processes
modeling for large data sets, evaluates their performance on commercial sales
and shows value of this type of models as a decision-making tool for
management.Comment: 1o pages, 5 figure
Big Data and the Internet of Things
Advances in sensing and computing capabilities are making it possible to
embed increasing computing power in small devices. This has enabled the sensing
devices not just to passively capture data at very high resolution but also to
take sophisticated actions in response. Combined with advances in
communication, this is resulting in an ecosystem of highly interconnected
devices referred to as the Internet of Things - IoT. In conjunction, the
advances in machine learning have allowed building models on this ever
increasing amounts of data. Consequently, devices all the way from heavy assets
such as aircraft engines to wearables such as health monitors can all now not
only generate massive amounts of data but can draw back on aggregate analytics
to "improve" their performance over time. Big data analytics has been
identified as a key enabler for the IoT. In this chapter, we discuss various
avenues of the IoT where big data analytics either is already making a
significant impact or is on the cusp of doing so. We also discuss social
implications and areas of concern.Comment: 33 pages. draft of upcoming book chapter in Japkowicz and Stefanowski
(eds.) Big Data Analysis: New algorithms for a new society, Springer Series
on Studies in Big Data, to appea
Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants
Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include
various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business
knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of
these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced
CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced
techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data
to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation.
One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the
legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a
great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to
increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production
losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of
the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent
optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the
energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends
to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent
outputs for the di erent techniques
Corporate payments networks and credit risk rating
Aggregate and systemic risk in complex systems are emergent phenomena
depending on two properties: the idiosyncratic risks of the elements and the
topology of the network of interactions among them. While a significant
attention has been given to aggregate risk assessment and risk propagation once
the above two properties are given, less is known about how the risk is
distributed in the network and its relations with the topology. We study this
problem by investigating a large proprietary dataset of payments among 2.4M
Italian firms, whose credit risk rating is known. We document significant
correlations between local topological properties of a node (firm) and its
risk. Moreover we show the existence of an homophily of risk, i.e. the tendency
of firms with similar risk profile to be statistically more connected among
themselves. This effect is observed when considering both pairs of firms and
communities or hierarchies identified in the network. We leverage this
knowledge to show the predictability of the missing rating of a firm using only
the network properties of the associated node
An intelligent recommendation system framework for student relationship management
In order to enhance student satisfaction, many services have been provided in order to meet student needs. A recommendation system is a significant service which can be used to assist students in several ways. This paper proposes a conceptual framework of an Intelligent Recommendation System in order to support Student Relationship Management (SRM) for a Thai private university. This article proposed the system architecture of an Intelligent Recommendation System (IRS) which aims to assist students to choose an appropriate course for their studies. Moreover, this study intends to compare different data mining techniques in various recommendation systems and to determine appropriate algorithms for the proposed electronic Intelligent Recommendation System (IRS). The IRS also aims to support Student Relationship Management (SRM) in the university. The IRS has been designed using data mining and artificial intelligent techniques such as clustering, association rule and classification
Ethical Implications of Predictive Risk Intelligence
open access articleThis paper presents a case study on the ethical issues that relate to the use of Smart Information Systems (SIS) in predictive risk intelligence. The case study is based on a company that is using SIS to provide predictive risk intelligence in supply chain management (SCM), insurance, finance and sustainability. The pa-per covers an assessment of how the company recognises ethical concerns related to SIS and the ways it deals with them. Data was collected through a document review and two in-depth semi-structured interviews. Results from the case study indicate that the main ethical concerns with the use of SIS in predictive risk intelli-gence include protection of the data being used in predicting risk, data privacy and consent from those whose data has been collected from data providers such as so-cial media sites. Also, there are issues relating to the transparency and accountabil-ity of processes used in predictive intelligence. The interviews highlighted the issue of bias in using the SIS for making predictions for specific target clients. The last ethical issue was related to trust and accuracy of the predictions of the SIS. In re-sponse to these issues, the company has put in place different mechanisms to ensure responsible innovation through what it calls Responsible Data Science. Under Re-sponsible Data Science, the identified ethical issues are addressed by following a code of ethics, engaging with stakeholders and ethics committees. This paper is important because it provides lessons for the responsible implementation of SIS in industry, particularly for start-ups. The paper acknowledges ethical issues with the use of SIS in predictive risk intelligence and suggests that ethics should be a central consideration for companies and individuals developing SIS to create meaningful positive change for society
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