Model Selection for Support Vector Machine Classification

We address the problem of model selection for Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification. For fixed functional form of the kernel, model selection amounts to tuning kernel parameters and the slack penalty coefficient $C$. We begin by reviewing a recently developed probabilistic framework for SVM classification. An extension to the case of SVMs with quadratic slack penalties is given and a simple approximation for the evidence is derived, which can be used as a criterion for model selection. We also derive the exact gradients of the evidence in terms of posterior averages and describe how they can be estimated numerically using Hybrid Monte Carlo techniques. Though computationally demanding, the resulting gradient ascent algorithm is a useful baseline tool for probabilistic SVM model selection, since it can locate maxima of the exact (unapproximated) evidence. We then perform extensive experiments on several benchmark data sets. The aim of these experiments is to compare the performance of probabilistic model selection criteria with alternatives based on estimates of the test error, namely the so-called ``span estimate'' and Wahba's Generalized Approximate Cross-Validation (GACV) error. We find that all the ``simple'' model criteria (Laplace evidence approximations, and the Span and GACV error estimates) exhibit multiple local optima with respect to the hyperparameters. While some of these give performance that is competitive with results from other approaches in the literature, a significant fraction lead to rather higher test errors. The results for the evidence gradient ascent method show that also the exact evidence exhibits local optima, but these give test errors which are much less variable and also consistently lower than for the simpler model selection criteria

Detecting Communities under Differential Privacy

Complex networks usually expose community structure with groups of nodes sharing many links with the other nodes in the same group and relatively few with the nodes of the rest. This feature captures valuable information about the organization and even the evolution of the network. Over the last decade, a great number of algorithms for community detection have been proposed to deal with the increasingly complex networks. However, the problem of doing this in a private manner is rarely considered. In this paper, we solve this problem under differential privacy, a prominent privacy concept for releasing private data. We analyze the major challenges behind the problem and propose several schemes to tackle them from two perspectives: input perturbation and algorithm perturbation. We choose Louvain method as the back-end community detection for input perturbation schemes and propose the method LouvainDP which runs Louvain algorithm on a noisy super-graph. For algorithm perturbation, we design ModDivisive using exponential mechanism with the modularity as the score. We have thoroughly evaluated our techniques on real graphs of different sizes and verified their outperformance over the state-of-the-art

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table