Partial Least Squares for Serially Dependent Data

In the first paper we consider the partial least squares algorithm for dependent data and study the consequences of ignoring the dependence both theoretically and numerically. Ignoring nonstationary dependence structures can lead to inconsistent estimation, but a simple modification leads to consistent estimation. A protein dynamics example illustrates the superior predictive power of the method. For the second paper we consider the kernel partial least squares algorithm for the solution of nonparametric regression problems when the data exhibit dependence in their observations in the form of stationary time series. Probabilistic convergence rates of the kernel partial least squares estimator to the true regression function are established under a source condition. The impact of long range dependence in the data is studied both theoretically and in simulations

Estimation in semi-parametric regression with non-stationary regressors

In this paper, we consider a partially linear model of the form $Y_t=X_t^{\tau}\theta_0+g(V_t)+\epsilon_t$, $t=1,...,n$, where $\{V_t\}$ is a $\beta$ null recurrent Markov chain, $\{X_t\}$ is a sequence of either strictly stationary or non-stationary regressors and $\{\epsilon_t\}$ is a stationary sequence. We propose to estimate both $\theta_0$ and $g(\cdot)$ by a semi-parametric least-squares (SLS) estimation method. Under certain conditions, we then show that the proposed SLS estimator of $\theta_0$ is still asymptotically normal with the same rate as for the case of stationary time series. In addition, we also establish an asymptotic distribution for the nonparametric estimator of the function $g(\cdot)$. Some numerical examples are provided to show that our theory and estimation method work well in practice.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ344 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Analytic Properties and Covariance Functions of a New Class of Generalized Gibbs Random Fields

Spartan Spatial Random Fields (SSRFs) are generalized Gibbs random fields, equipped with a coarse-graining kernel that acts as a low-pass filter for the fluctuations. SSRFs are defined by means of physically motivated spatial interactions and a small set of free parameters (interaction couplings). This paper focuses on the FGC-SSRF model, which is defined on the Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ by means of interactions proportional to the squares of the field realizations, as well as their gradient and curvature. The permissibility criteria of FGC-SSRFs are extended by considering the impact of a finite-bandwidth kernel. It is proved that the FGC-SSRFs are almost surely differentiable in the case of finite bandwidth. Asymptotic explicit expressions for the Spartan covariance function are derived for $d=1$ and $d=3$; both known and new covariance functions are obtained depending on the value of the FGC-SSRF shape parameter. Nonlinear dependence of the covariance integral scale on the FGC-SSRF characteristic length is established, and it is shown that the relation becomes linear asymptotically. The results presented in this paper are useful in random field parameter inference, as well as in spatial interpolation of irregularly-spaced samples.Comment: 24 pages; 4 figures Submitted for publication to IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN EFFICIENT MARKET IN TERMS OF INFORMATION – THE CASE OF THE CAPITAL MARKET IN ROMANIA DURING RECESSION

This paper is trying to test the hypothesis of efficient market (EMH Efficient Market Hypothesis), the case of capital market in Romania during the economic financial crisis. According to the purpose in view our research is aiming at testing the hypothesis of random walk of stock exchange indexes BET, BET-C, BET_FI of Bucharest Stock Exchange. In this respect we will enforce statistic tests to see if the capital market in Romania is efficient in a weak form during this period.efficient capital market, random walk, stationary tests, normal distribution

The generalized shrinkage estimator for the analysis of functional connectivity of brain signals

We develop a new statistical method for estimating functional connectivity between neurophysiological signals represented by a multivariate time series. We use partial coherence as the measure of functional connectivity. Partial coherence identifies the frequency bands that drive the direct linear association between any pair of channels. To estimate partial coherence, one would first need an estimate of the spectral density matrix of the multivariate time series. Parametric estimators of the spectral density matrix provide good frequency resolution but could be sensitive when the parametric model is misspecified. Smoothing-based nonparametric estimators are robust to model misspecification and are consistent but may have poor frequency resolution. In this work, we develop the generalized shrinkage estimator, which is a weighted average of a parametric estimator and a nonparametric estimator. The optimal weights are frequency-specific and derived under the quadratic risk criterion so that the estimator, either the parametric estimator or the nonparametric estimator, that performs better at a particular frequency receives heavier weight. We validate the proposed estimator in a simulation study and apply it on electroencephalogram recordings from a visual-motor experiment.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS396 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org