Resting state correlates of subdimensions of anxious affect

Resting state fMRI may help identify markers of risk for affective disorder. Given the comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders and the heterogeneity of these disorders as defined by DSM, an important challenge is to identify alterations in resting state brain connectivity uniquely associated with distinct profiles of negative affect. The current study aimed to address this by identifying differences in brain connectivity specifically linked to cognitive and physiological profiles of anxiety, controlling for depressed affect. We adopted a two-stage multivariate approach. Hierarchical clustering was used to independently identify dimensions of negative affective style and resting state brain networks. Combining the clustering results, we examined individual differences in resting state connectivity uniquely associated with subdimensions of anxious affect, controlling for depressed affect. Physiological and cognitive subdimensions of anxious affect were identified. Physiological anxiety was associated with widespread alterations in insula connectivity, including decreased connectivity between insula subregions and between the insula and other medial frontal and subcortical networks. This is consistent with the insula facilitating communication between medial frontal and subcortical regions to enable control of physiological affective states. Meanwhile, increased connectivity within a frontoparietal-posterior cingulate cortex-precunous network was specifically associated with cognitive anxiety, potentially reflecting increased spontaneous negative cognition (e.g., worry). These findings suggest that physiological and cognitive anxiety comprise subdimensions of anxiety-related affect and reveal associated alterations in brain connectivity

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Patterns of Sponge Abundance Across a Gradient of Habitat Quality in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, Indonesia

Sponges are important components of reef communities worldwide, fulfilling a number of important functional roles. Habitat degradation caused by the loss of hard corals has the potential to cause increases in sponge abundance and percentage cover as they gain access to resources such as space and food. In this study we compared sponge densities and percentage cover at sites with varying hard coral cover in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, Indonesia (WMNP). We found significant differences in sponge densities at the study sites but no significant difference in sponge densities on different surface angles. Unexpectedly, we also found a weak positive correlation between coral cover and sponge density. This indicates that spatial competition is unlikely to be the most important factor determining sponge abundance in the WMNP. In contrast to sponge density data, we found that sponge percentage cover and hard coral cover were weakly negatively correlated, but found no significant difference in sponge percentage cover between the study sites. Finally, multivariate analysis of the benthic communities at the study sites indicated that while sites with higher coral cover were characterised by coral (proportionally), lower coral cover sites were characterised by algae and sponges. This suggests that although there was no significant difference in sponge percentage cover between the study sites conditions that led to the loss of hard coral at lower quality sites mean that these sites are characterised by sponges and algae rather than by any other groups of benthic organisms

Personalized Risk Assessment in Never, Light, and Heavy Smokers in a prospective cohort in Taiwan.

The objective of this study was to develop markedly improved risk prediction models for lung cancer using a prospective cohort of 395,875 participants in Taiwan. Discriminatory accuracy was measured by generation of receiver operator curves and estimation of area under the curve (AUC). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, age, gender, smoking pack-years, family history of lung cancer, personal cancer history, BMI, lung function test, and serum biomarkers such as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), bilirubin, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and c-reactive protein (CRP) were identified and included in an integrative risk prediction model. The AUC in overall population was 0.851 (95% CI = 0.840-0.862), with never smokers 0.806 (95% CI = 0.790-0.819), light smokers 0.847 (95% CI = 0.824-0.871), and heavy smokers 0.732 (95% CI = 0.708-0.752). By integrating risk factors such as family history of lung cancer, CEA and AFP for light smokers, and lung function test (Maximum Mid-Expiratory Flow, MMEF25-75%), AFP and CEA for never smokers, light and never smokers with cancer risks as high as those within heavy smokers could be identified. The risk model for heavy smokers can allow us to stratify heavy smokers into subgroups with distinct risks, which, if applied to low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening, may greatly reduce false positives

Robust automated detection of microstructural white matter degeneration in Alzheimer’s disease using machine learning classification of multicenter DTI data

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) based assessment of white matter fiber tract integrity can support the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The use of DTI as a biomarker, however, depends on its applicability in a multicenter setting accounting for effects of different MRI scanners. We applied multivariate machine learning (ML) to a large multicenter sample from the recently created framework of the European DTI study on Dementia (EDSD). We hypothesized that ML approaches may amend effects of multicenter acquisition. We included a sample of 137 patients with clinically probable AD (MMSE 20.6±5.3) and 143 healthy elderly controls, scanned in nine different scanners. For diagnostic classification we used the DTI indices fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) and, for comparison, gray matter and white matter density maps from anatomical MRI. Data were classified using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier. We used two cross-validation approaches, (i) test and training samples randomly drawn from the entire data set (pooled cross-validation) and (ii) data from each scanner as test set, and the data from the remaining scanners as training set (scanner-specific cross-validation). In the pooled cross-validation, SVM achieved an accuracy of 80% for FA and 83% for MD. Accuracies for NB were significantly lower, ranging between 68% and 75%. Removing variance components arising from scanners using principal component analysis did not significantly change the classification results for both classifiers. For the scanner-specific cross-validation, the classification accuracy was reduced for both SVM and NB. After mean correction, classification accuracy reached a level comparable to the results obtained from the pooled cross-validation. Our findings support the notion that machine learning classification allows robust classification of DTI data sets arising from multiple scanners, even if a new data set comes from a scanner that was not part of the training sample

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1