Partition strategies for incremental Mini-Bucket

Los modelos en grafo probabilísticos, tales como los campos aleatorios de Markov y las redes bayesianas, ofrecen poderosos marcos de trabajo para la representación de conocimiento y el razonamiento en modelos con gran número de variables. Sin embargo, los problemas de inferencia exacta en modelos de grafos son NP-hard en general, lo que ha causado que se produzca bastante interés en métodos de inferencia aproximados. El mini-bucket incremental es un marco de trabajo para inferencia aproximada que produce como resultado límites aproximados inferior y superior de la función de partición exacta, a base de -empezando a partir de un modelo con todos los constraints relajados, es decir, con las regiones más pequeñas posibleincrementalmente añadir regiones más grandes a la aproximación. Los métodos de inferencia aproximada que existen actualmente producen límites superiores ajustados de la función de partición, pero los límites inferiores suelen ser demasiado imprecisos o incluso triviales. El objetivo de este proyecto es investigar estrategias de partición que mejoren los límites inferiores obtenidos con el algoritmo de mini-bucket, trabajando dentro del marco de trabajo de mini-bucket incremental. Empezamos a partir de la idea de que creemos que debería ser beneficioso razonar conjuntamente con las variables de un modelo que tienen una alta correlación, y desarrollamos una estrategia para la selección de regiones basada en esa idea. Posteriormente, implementamos nuestra estrategia y exploramos formas de mejorarla, y finalmente medimos los resultados obtenidos usando nuestra estrategia y los comparamos con varios métodos de referencia. Nuestros resultados indican que nuestra estrategia obtiene límites inferiores más ajustados que nuestros dos métodos de referencia. También consideramos y descartamos dos posibles hipótesis que podrían explicar esta mejora.Els models en graf probabilístics, com bé els camps aleatoris de Markov i les xarxes bayesianes, ofereixen poderosos marcs de treball per la representació del coneixement i el raonament en models amb grans quantitats de variables. Tanmateix, els problemes d’inferència exacta en models de grafs son NP-hard en general, el qual ha provocat que es produeixi bastant d’interès en mètodes d’inferència aproximats. El mini-bucket incremental es un marc de treball per a l’inferència aproximada que produeix com a resultat límits aproximats inferior i superior de la funció de partició exacta que funciona començant a partir d’un model al qual se li han relaxat tots els constraints -és a dir, un model amb les regions més petites possibles- i anar afegint a l’aproximació regions incrementalment més grans. Els mètodes d’inferència aproximada que existeixen actualment produeixen límits superiors ajustats de la funció de partició. Tanmateix, els límits inferiors acostumen a ser massa imprecisos o fins aviat trivials. El objectiu d’aquest projecte es recercar estratègies de partició que millorin els límits inferiors obtinguts amb l’algorisme de mini-bucket, treballant dins del marc de treball del mini-bucket incremental. La nostra idea de partida pel projecte es que creiem que hauria de ser beneficiós per la qualitat de l’aproximació raonar conjuntament amb les variables del model que tenen una alta correlació entre elles, i desenvolupem una estratègia per a la selecció de regions basada en aquesta idea. Posteriorment, implementem la nostra estratègia i explorem formes de millorar-la, i finalment mesurem els resultats obtinguts amb la nostra estratègia i els comparem a diversos mètodes de referència. Els nostres resultats indiquen que la nostra estratègia obté límits inferiors més ajustats que els nostres dos mètodes de referència. També considerem i descartem dues possibles hipòtesis que podrien explicar aquesta millora.Probabilistic graphical models such as Markov random fields and Bayesian networks provide powerful frameworks for knowledge representation and reasoning over models with large numbers of variables. Unfortunately, exact inference problems on graphical models are generally NP-hard, which has led to signifi- cant interest in approximate inference algorithms. Incremental mini-bucket is a framework for approximate inference that provides upper and lower bounds on the exact partition function by, starting from a model with completely relaxed constraints, i.e. with the smallest possible regions, incrementally adding larger regions to the approximation. Current approximate inference algorithms provide tight upper bounds on the exact partition function but loose or trivial lower bounds. This project focuses on researching partitioning strategies that improve the lower bounds obtained with mini-bucket elimination, working within the framework of incremental mini-bucket. We start from the idea that variables that are highly correlated should be reasoned about together, and we develop a strategy for region selection based on that idea. We implement the strategy and explore ways to improve it, and finally we measure the results obtained using the strategy and compare them to several baselines. We find that our strategy performs better than both of our baselines. We also rule out several possible explanations for the improvement

Subgraph Pattern Matching over Uncertain Graphs with Identity Linkage Uncertainty

There is a growing need for methods which can capture uncertainties and answer queries over graph-structured data. Two common types of uncertainty are uncertainty over the attribute values of nodes and uncertainty over the existence of edges. In this paper, we combine those with identity uncertainty. Identity uncertainty represents uncertainty over the mapping from objects mentioned in the data, or references, to the underlying real-world entities. We propose the notion of a probabilistic entity graph (PEG), a probabilistic graph model that defines a distribution over possible graphs at the entity level. The model takes into account node attribute uncertainty, edge existence uncertainty, and identity uncertainty, and thus enables us to systematically reason about all three types of uncertainties in a uniform manner. We introduce a general framework for constructing a PEG given uncertain data at the reference level and develop highly efficient algorithms to answer subgraph pattern matching queries in this setting. Our algorithms are based on two novel ideas: context-aware path indexing and reduction by join-candidates, which drastically reduce the query search space. A comprehensive experimental evaluation shows that our approach outperforms baseline implementations by orders of magnitude

Classification of tight contact structures on small Seifert fibered L-spaces

The Ozsvath-Szabo contact invariant is a complete classification invariant for tight contact structures on small Seifert fibered 3-manifolds which are L-spaces.Comment: 30 pages, 3 figure

The Impact of Petri Nets on System-of-Systems Engineering

The successful engineering of a large-scale system-of-systems project towards deterministic behaviour depends on integrating autonomous components using international communications standards in accordance with dynamic requirements. To-date, their engineering has been unsuccessful: no combination of top-down and bottom-up engineering perspectives is adopted, and information exchange protocol and interfaces between components are not being precisely specified. Various approaches such as modelling, and architecture frameworks make positive contributions to system-of-systems specification but their successful implementation is still a problem. One of the most popular modelling notations available for specifying systems, UML, is intuitive and graphical but also ambiguous and imprecise. Supplying a range of diagrams to represent a system under development, UML lacks simulation and exhaustive verification capability. This shortfall in UML has received little attention in the context of system-of-systems and there are two major research issues: 1. Where the dynamic, behavioural diagrams of UML can and cannot be used to model and analyse system-of-systems 2. Determining how Petri nets can be used to improve the specification and analysis of the dynamic model of a system-of-systems specified using UML This thesis presents the strengths and weaknesses of Petri nets in relation to the specification of system-of-systems and shows how Petri net models can be used instead of conventional UML Activity Diagrams. The model of the system-of-systems can then be analysed and verified using Petri net theory. The Petri net formalism of behaviour is demonstrated using two case studies from the military domain. The first case study uses Petri nets to specify and analyse a close air support mission. This case study concludes by indicating the strengths, weaknesses, and shortfalls of the proposed formalism in system-of-systems specification. The second case study considers specification of a military exchange network parameters problem and the results are compared with the strengths and weaknesses identified in the first case study. Finally, the results of the research are formulated in the form of a Petri net enhancement to UML (mapping existing activity diagram elements to Petri net elements) to meet the needs of system-of-systems specification, verification and validation