Agent-based modelling and inundation prediction to enable the identification of businesses affected by flooding

Flooding continues to cause significant disruption to individuals, organisations and communities in many parts of the world. In terms of the impact on businesses in the United Kingdom (UK), flooding is responsible for the loss of millions of pounds to the economy. As part of a UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council funded project on flood risk management, SESAME, research is being carried out with the aim of improving business response to and preparedness for flood events. To achieve this aim, one strand of the research is focused on establishing how agent-based modelling and simulation can be used to evaluate and improve business continuity. This paper reports on the development of the virtual geographic environment (VGE) component of an agent-based model and how this has been combined with inundation prediction to enable the identification of businesses affected by flooding in any urban area of the UK. The VGE has been developed to use layers from Ordnance Survey’s MasterMap, namely the Topography Layer, Integrated Transport Network Layer and Address Layer 2. Coupling the VGE with inundation prediction provides credibility in modelling flood events in any area of the UK. An initial case study is presented focusing on the Lower Don Valley region of Sheffield leading to the identification of businesses impacted by flooding based on a predicted inundation. Further work will focus on the development of agents to model and simulate businesses during and in the aftermath of flood events such that changes in their behaviours can be investigated leading to improved operational response and business continuity

Scope And Outcomes Of A Trauma Quality Improvement Program At Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Australia 2006-2016

Background Injury and trauma remain important causes of morbidity and mortality globally. Trauma systems have been established to facilitate optimal management of injured patients, including timely access to specialist trauma centres in those who are severely injured. Trauma quality improvement programs have emerged over the past decade to evaluate and improve quality of care delivered by trauma systems and trauma centres. Despite this, there remains little evidence to demonstrate that these quality improvement programs actually improve patient outcomes or whether they are cost-effective. In 2006, a trauma quality improvement program was initiated at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Australia. This consisted primarily of the implementation of trauma team activation and resuscitation protocols, and the evaluation of care through the use of clinical indicators (key performance indicators) and measurement of post discharge health status. Objectives This thesis describes a quality improvement program at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital that involved monitoring of all major clinical services involved in the acute care of trauma at this hospital, and evaluates this program with respect to in-patient mortality for severe injury, cost effectiveness and long term outcomes. Methods The studies were conducted at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital (RPA) in New South Wales Australia. The thesis is presented in four main sections. The first section (chapters 1 to 4) provides an outline of the thesis and summarises the current literature on trauma quality improvement programs. Preliminary papers describe the historical context of the trauma service at this institution and discuss the conceptual framework for trauma patient data collection. The second section (chapters 5 to 9) provides background information regarding contemporaneous trends in injury presentations to Emergency Departments and major trauma activity and mortality across NSW. The third section (chapters 10 to 13) details and evaluates the impact of the trauma quality improvement program on long-term major trauma mortality trends at this hospital using time series analysis and its cost effectiveness in a subset of road trauma patients. It also investigates health status outcomes in trauma patients at three and six months after hospital discharge - a project initiated as part of the quality improvement program. Results Injury is one of the leading causes of presentations to Emergency Departments across NSW and the critically injured make up around 1% of total injury presentations. Major trauma in-hospital mortality across NSW has remained stable at around 16% between 2003 and 2014. The trauma quality improvement program at RPA was associated with a significant reduction in major trauma mortality from 16% to 10% after 2007. The incremental cost effectiveness was estimated to be $7600 per year of life saved in the subset of road trauma patients. Analyses of health outcomes after discharge revealed increasing injury severity and upper limb injuries were the only predictors of reduced employment status after injury, and lower limb injuries were associated with reduced physical health status compared to those without lower limb injuries at both 3 and 6 months post discharge. Around 37% of patients reported signs of psychological distress and this did not change significantly during the study interval. Conclusions This thesis has published important new information regarding the clinical and cost-effectiveness of trauma quality improvement programs. It contains the first published studies evaluating these interventions using formal time series and health economics analysis and one of few reporting the intervention in the context of existing injury and trauma management systems in New South Wales Australia

Modelling Red Blood Cell Provision in Mass Casualty Events

PhDTraumatic haemorrhage is a leading preventable cause of critical mortality in mass casualty events (MCEs). Treatment requires the rapid provision of high volumes of packed red blood cells (PRBC) to meet the surge in casualty demand these events generate. The increasing frequency of MCEs coupled with the threat of more violent mechanisms risks overwhelming hospital based transfusion systems. The overall objective of this research was to improve understanding of blood use in MCEs using a mathematical modelling approach. A computerised discrete event simulation model was designed, developed and validated using civilian and military transfusion databases, a review of historical MCEs and discussion with experts involved in all aspects of in-hospital MCE PRBC provision. The model was experimented with across increasing casualty loads to optimise event outcomes under varied conditions of: stock availability, laboratory processing procedures and individual PRBC supply. The model indicated even in events of limited size the standard on-shelf PRBC stock level was insufficient to adequately meet demand amongst bleeding casualties. Restocking during an event allowed for equivocal treatment results if performed early following an event and this would be most effective if activated by central suppliers. Modifications to transfusion laboratory processing procedures were found to be of limited benefit in improving outcomes due to the principally automated nature of the techniques they employ. Conversely, the use of restricting excessive individual provision of both overall PRBC and emergency type O PRBC to individual casualties did show potential for managing scenarios where only a finite supply of stock existed or an accurate estimation of expected casualties was available

Online Optimisation of Casualty Processing in Major Incident Response

Recent emergency response operations to Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs) have been criticised for a lack of coordination, implying that there is clear potential for response operations to be improved and for corresponding benefits in terms of the health and well-being of those affected by such incidents. In this thesis, the use of mathematical modelling, and in particular optimisation, is considered as a means with which to help improve the coordination of MCI response. Upon reviewing the nature of decision making in MCIs and other disaster response operations in practice, this work demonstrates through an in-depth review of the available academic literature that an important problem has yet to be modelled and solved using an optimisation methodology. This thesis involves the development of such a model, identifying an appropriate task scheduling formulation of the decision problem and a number of objective functions corresponding to the goals of the MCI response decision makers. Efficient solution methodologies are developed to allow for solutions to the model, and therefore to the MCI response operation, to be found in a timely manner. Following on from the development of the optimisation model, the dynamic and uncertain nature of the MCI response environment is considered in detail. Highlighting the lack of relevant research considering this important aspect of the problem, the optimisation model is extended to allow for its use in real-time. In order to allow for the utility of the model to be thoroughly examined, a complementary simulation is developed and an interface allowing for its communication with the optimisation model specified. Extensive computational experiments are reported, demonstrating both the danger of developing and applying optimisation models under a set of unrealistic assumptions, and the potential for the model developed in this work to deliver improvements in MCI response operations

Pre-hospital trauma Interventions

Considerable variation exists in the type and quality of interventions carried out on victims of major trauma in the pre-hospital phase of care. One model of care consists of high level interventions delivered by a doctor-led team. Examining two controversial areas of treatment (traumatic cardiac arrest and advanced airway management), this thesis set out to determine the quality and potential shortfalls of current practice and how they might be improved. A systematic review of traumatic cardiac arrest survival confirmed that outcome was historically very poor. A study of the largest series of traumatic cardiac arrest reported to date then suggested that a doctor –led system was associated with survival rates which were greater, and which were compatible with those after medical cardiac arrest. A significant proportion of survivors were victims of penetrating trauma who had been treated with on-scene thoracotomy. I thus examined the use, success rate and place of this intervention through analysis of the only reported case series. Finally, I considered how new or established interventions might be best applied in the early phase of trauma care to improve outcome, proposing a treatment algorithm to guide current management. Advanced airway management is presented as a controversial subject with uncertainty about who should deliver it and how it should be performed. The data presented demonstrates that, in a UK system ambulance service, interventions fail to deliver adequate airway care to trauma victims. In terms of doctor-delivered care, a meta-analysis is presented which demonstrates that doctors have better intubation success rates than paramedics, even when drug assistance and high levels of training are provided. The largest series of physician-delivered intubation then confirms this position. Lastly, a pre-hospital airway consensus process is described which attempts to improve the quality of data to guide future service development and research