Estimation in the partially observed stochastic Morris-Lecar neuronal model with particle filter and stochastic approximation methods

Parameter estimation in multidimensional diffusion models with only one coordinate observed is highly relevant in many biological applications, but a statistically difficult problem. In neuroscience, the membrane potential evolution in single neurons can be measured at high frequency, but biophysical realistic models have to include the unobserved dynamics of ion channels. One such model is the stochastic Morris-Lecar model, defined by a nonlinear two-dimensional stochastic differential equation. The coordinates are coupled, that is, the unobserved coordinate is nonautonomous, the model exhibits oscillations to mimic the spiking behavior, which means it is not of gradient-type, and the measurement noise from intracellular recordings is typically negligible. Therefore, the hidden Markov model framework is degenerate, and available methods break down. The main contributions of this paper are an approach to estimate in this ill-posed situation and nonasymptotic convergence results for the method. Specifically, we propose a sequential Monte Carlo particle filter algorithm to impute the unobserved coordinate, and then estimate parameters maximizing a pseudo-likelihood through a stochastic version of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. It turns out that even the rate scaling parameter governing the opening and closing of ion channels of the unobserved coordinate can be reasonably estimated. An experimental data set of intracellular recordings of the membrane potential of a spinal motoneuron of a red-eared turtle is analyzed, and the performance is further evaluated in a simulation study.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS729 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Almost the Best of Three Worlds: Risk, Consistency and Optional Stopping for the Switch Criterion in Nested Model Selection

We study the switch distribution, introduced by Van Erven et al. (2012), applied to model selection and subsequent estimation. While switching was known to be strongly consistent, here we show that it achieves minimax optimal parametric risk rates up to a $\log\log n$ factor when comparing two nested exponential families, partially confirming a conjecture by Lauritzen (2012) and Cavanaugh (2012) that switching behaves asymptotically like the Hannan-Quinn criterion. Moreover, like Bayes factor model selection but unlike standard significance testing, when one of the models represents a simple hypothesis, the switch criterion defines a robust null hypothesis test, meaning that its Type-I error probability can be bounded irrespective of the stopping rule. Hence, switching is consistent, insensitive to optional stopping and almost minimax risk optimal, showing that, Yang's (2005) impossibility result notwithstanding, it is possible to `almost' combine the strengths of AIC and Bayes factor model selection.Comment: To appear in Statistica Sinic

Almost the best of three worlds: Risk, consistency and optional stopping for the switch criterion in nested model selection

We study the switch distribution, introduced by van Erven, Grünwald and De Rooij (2012), applied to model selection and subsequent estimation. While switching was known to be strongly consistent, here we show that it achieves minimax optimal parametric risk rates up to a log log n factor when comparing two nested exponential families, partially confirming a conjecture by Lauritzen (2012) and Cavanaugh (2012) that switching behaves asymptotically like the Hannan-Quinn criterion. Moreover, like Bayes factor model selection, but unlike standard significance testing, when one of the models represents a simple hypothesis, the switch criterion defines a robust null hypothesis test, meaning that its Type-I error probability can be bounded irrespective of the stopping rule. Hence, switching is consistent, insensitive to optional stopping and almost minimax risk optimal, showing that, Yang's (2005) impossibility result notwithstanding, it is possible to `almost' combine the strengths of AIC and Bayes factor model selection

The log-linear group-lasso estimator and its asymptotic properties

We define the group-lasso estimator for the natural parameters of the exponential families of distributions representing hierarchical log-linear models under multinomial sampling scheme. Such estimator arises as the solution of a convex penalized likelihood optimization problem based on the group-lasso penalty. We illustrate how it is possible to construct an estimator of the underlying log-linear model using the blocks of nonzero coefficients recovered by the group-lasso procedure. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the group-lasso estimator as a model selection method in a double-asymptotic framework, in which both the sample size and the model complexity grow simultaneously. We provide conditions guaranteeing that the group-lasso estimator is model selection consistent, in the sense that, with overwhelming probability as the sample size increases, it correctly identifies all the sets of nonzero interactions among the variables. Provided the sequences of true underlying models is sparse enough, recovery is possible even if the number of cells grows larger than the sample size. Finally, we derive some central limit type of results for the log-linear group-lasso estimator.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/11-BEJ364 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm