Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Decision support for build-to-order supply chain management through multiobjective optimization

This paper aims to identify the gaps in decision-making support based on multiobjective optimization for build-to-order supply chain management (BTOSCM). To this end, it reviews the literature available on modelling build-to-order supply chains (BTO-SC) with the focus on adopting multiobjective optimization (MOO) techniques as a decision support tool. The literature has been classified based on the nature of the decisions in different part of the supply chain, and the key decision areas across a typical BTO-SC are discussed in detail. Available software packages suitable for supporting decision making in BTO supply chains are also identified and their related solutions are outlined. The gap between the modelling and optimization techniques developed in the literature and the decision support needed in practice are highlighted and future research directions to better exploit the decision support capabilities of MOO are proposed

Decision support for build-to-order supply chain management through multiobjective optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in International Journal of Production Economics. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2010 Elsevier B.V.This paper aims to identify the gaps in decision-making support based on multiobjective optimization (MOO) for build-to-order supply chain management (BTO-SCM). To this end, it reviews the literature available on modelling build-to-order supply chains (BTO-SC) with the focus on adopting MOO techniques as a decision support tool. The literature has been classified based on the nature of the decisions in different part of the supply chain, and the key decision areas across a typical BTO-SC are discussed in detail. Available software packages suitable for supporting decision making in BTO supply chains are also identified and their related solutions are outlined. The gap between the modelling and optimization techniques developed in the literature and the decision support needed in practice are highlighted. Future research directions to better exploit the decision support capabilities of MOO are proposed. These include: reformulation of the extant optimization models with a MOO perspective, development of decision supports for interfaces not involving manufacturers, development of scenarios around service-based objectives, development of efficient solution tools, considering the interests of each supply chain party as a separate objective to account for fair treatment of their requirements, and applying the existing methodologies on real-life data sets.Brunel Research Initiative and Enterprise Fund (BRIEF

A variational approach for continuous supply chain networks

We consider a continuous supply chain network consisting of buffering queues and processors first proposed by [D. Armbruster, P. Degond, and C. Ringhofer, SIAM J. Appl. Math., 66 (2006), pp. 896–920] and subsequently analyzed by [D. Armbruster, P. Degond, and C. Ringhofer, Bull. Inst. Math. Acad. Sin. (N.S.), 2 (2007), pp. 433–460] and [D. Armbruster, C. De Beer, M. Fre- itag, T. Jagalski, and C. Ringhofer, Phys. A, 363 (2006), pp. 104–114]. A model was proposed for such a network by [S. G ̈ottlich, M. Herty, and A. Klar, Commun. Math. Sci., 3 (2005), pp. 545–559] using a system of coupling ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations. In this article, we propose an alternative approach based on a variational method to formulate the network dynamics. We also derive, based on the variational method, a computational algorithm that guarantees numerical stability, allows for rigorous error estimates, and facilitates efficient computations. A class of network flow optimization problems are formulated as mixed integer programs (MIPs). The proposed numerical algorithm and the corresponding MIP are compared theoretically and numerically with existing ones [A. Fu ̈genschuh, S. Go ̈ttlich, M. Herty, A. Klar, and A. Martin, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 30 (2008), pp. 1490–1507; S. Go ̈ttlich, M. Herty, and A. Klar, Commun. Math. Sci., 3 (2005), pp. 545–559], which demonstrates the modeling and computational advantages of the variational approach

Optimization of the long-term planning of supply chains with decaying performance

This master's thesis addresses the optimization of supply and distribution chains considering the effect that equipment aging may cause over the performance of facilities involved in the process. The decaying performance of the facilities is modeled as an exponential equation and can be either physical or economic, thus giving rise to a novel mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) formulation. The optimization model has been developed based on a typical chemical supply chain. Thus, the best long-term investment plan has to be determined given production nodes, their production capacity and expected evolution; aggregated consumption nodes (urban or industrial districts) and their lumped demand (and expected evolution); actual and potential distribution nodes; distances between the nodes of the network; and a time horizon. The model includes the balances in each node, a general decaying performance function, and a cost function, as well as constraints to be satisfied. Hence, the investment plan (decision variables) consists not only on the start-up and shutdown of alternative distribution facilities, but also on the sizing of the lines satisfying the flows. The model has been implemented using GAMS optimization software. Results considering a variety of scenarios have been discussed. In addition, different approaches to the starting point for the model have been compared, showing the importance of initializing the optimization algorithm. The capabilities of the proposed approach have been tested through its application to two case studies: a natural gas network with physical decaying performance and an electricity distribution network with economic decaying performance. Each case study is solved with a different procedure to obtain results. Results demonstrate that overlooking the effect of equipment aging can lead to infeasible (for physical decaying performance) or unrealistic (for economic decaying performance) solutions in practice and show how the proposed model allows overcoming such limitations thus becoming a practical tool to support the decision-making process in the distribution secto

An optimal-control based integrated model of supply chain

Problems of supply chain scheduling are challenged by high complexity, combination of continuous and discrete processes, integrated production and transportation operations as well as dynamics and resulting requirements for adaptability and stability analysis. A possibility to address the above-named issues opens modern control theory and optimal program control in particular. Based on a combination of fundamental results of modern optimal program control theory and operations research, an original approach to supply chain scheduling is developed in order to answer the challenges of complexity, dynamics, uncertainty, and adaptivity. Supply chain schedule generation is represented as an optimal program control problem in combination with mathematical programming and interpreted as a dynamic process of operations control within an adaptive framework. The calculation procedure is based on applying Pontryagin’s maximum principle and the resulting essential reduction of problem dimensionality that is under solution at each instant of time. With the developed model, important categories of supply chain analysis such as stability and adaptability can be taken into consideration. Besides, the dimensionality of operations research-based problems can be relieved with the help of distributing model elements between an operations research (static aspects) and a control (dynamic aspects) model. In addition, operations control and flow control models are integrated and applicable for both discrete and continuous processes.supply chain, model of supply chain scheduling, optimal program control theory, Pontryagin’s maximum principle, operations research model,